Israel to remain in Lebanon past Sunday withdrawal deadline, says ready for renewed Hezbollah war

Israel will not withdraw its forces from parts of southern Lebanon after the ceasefire deadline ends this Sunday, the Israeli premier's office announced Friday, with warnings that Israel was ready to hit Hezbollah hard again.

The military withdrawal from southern Lebanon will continue beyond the 60-day period that was defined in the ceasefire agreement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said, and Israel's Kan broadcaster reported the army has been ordered to remain in the eastern part of south Lebanon, adjacent to the Galilee Panhandle.

"Our withdrawal from southern Lebanon is conditional on the deployment of the Lebanese army and the withdrawal of Hezbollah beyond the Litani [River]," said Netanyahu's office.

Earlier reports by Israeli Channel 14 added that the Israeli army was "prepared for any scenario and will respond harshly and immediately to any violations by Hezbollah".

The Israeli government had reportedly been in contact with the new administration in Washington to ask for permission to extend its stay "for days or weeks".

Under the US and French-brokered ceasefire deal which came into effect on 27 November, Israel was obliged to withdraw from southern Lebanon while Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militant group, must move behind the Litani, miles away from the border, all within 60 days.

In the meantime, the Lebanese army must also reposition itself heavily across southern Lebanon alongside UN peacekeepers, the UNIFIL.

Could Hezbollah respond?

There had been doubts in Lebanon from the start that Israel would pull out its troops, carrying out hundreds of violations since the ceasefire went into effect, including airstrikes and mass demolitions across border communities as part of its scorched earth policy.

Tel Aviv claims it is targeting Hezbollah personnel and installations and says that while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL have deployed in many areas once held by Hezbollah, the ceasefire implementation was "not happening fast enough".

So far, Israel has only fully withdrawn from south Lebanon’s western sector, allowing residents to trickle back to their bombed-out homes and villages there. But in some central and eastern sectors of south Lebanon, Israeli forces have banned residents from returning, issuing near-daily reminders to them not to go back "yet."

Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have moved into towns and villages that have been vacated by Israeli forces.

Israel's former defence minister Benny Gantz said Friday it was "unacceptable" for the Israeli army to leave what he called the buffer zone in Lebanon as it would pose a risk to northern Israel.

Beirut has slammed Israel’s intentions to stay, saying there was no need for its occupation of southern parts of Lebanon to continue, and has called on the US – which leads a committee monitoring the ceasefire deal – to pressure its ally to completely pull out its forces.

Lebanese officials are engaged in "intensive calls" with international sides to pressure Israel to complete its withdrawal by Sunday, The New Arab’s Arabic service, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, has learned.

But the Lebanese government has received nothing official regarding Israel's decision on Friday.

An unnamed source in the Lebanese army told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that they have "not yet received any information from the head of the ceasefire committee, the US General [Jasper Jeffers], regarding the [Israeli] occupation army’s delayed withdrawal, and our forces are currently deployed only in the places from which the occupation has left."

Hezbollah – battered by the war with its senior command structure eliminated and thousands of its fighters killed – had warned this week of Israel staying in southern Lebanon, calling on the Lebanese government to carry out its role fully in making sure the withdrawal happens on time.

It is not clear what the militant group plans on doing in the event Israel doesn’t leave, although some analysts believe it is too weakened to launch an attack that could trigger another war, especially as tens of thousands of its supporters continue to reel from last year’s violence as Israel’s strikes were mainly concentrated in Shia-majority areas.

Many Lebanese from these border towns and villages have said they will return whether Israel withdraws or not, potentially risking their lives.

Lebanese army conducts 500 operations

Newly elected President Joseph Aoun had vowed in his 9 January inaugural speech to guarantee state monopoly over all arms in Lebanon, without naming Hezbollah. He has also said countries must pressure Israel to leave his country's south.

The ceasefire deal, in line with UN Security Resolution 1701 that was adopted in 2006, calls on the Lebanese government to confiscate all arms outside state control and exercise full sovereignty over the whole country, including its southern border with Israel and its porous border with Syria.

Contrary to Israel, the LAF has vowed to uphold its part of the ceasefire agreement. The US, EU, Qatar and others have announced financial aid packages for the Lebanese army to make sure it can carry out its tasks across southern Lebanon and the rest of the country, reiterating that only Lebanon’s "legitimate forces" must be in control of state sovereignty.

Lebanese army units in the south, in coordination with UNIFIL, have reportedly carried out 500 missions detecting potential Hezbollah sites and dismantling installations, including 100 weapon depots that UN chief Antonio Guterres spoke of during a recent visit to Lebanon.

No issues have been reported between Hezbollah’s members and Lebanese soldiers, but some of Hezbollah’s rivals in Lebanon remain doubtful that the group is serious about upholding the ceasefire deal, arguing it wants to try and remain in possession of some of its weapons.

Hezbollah was dealt another blow when it lost its main supply route from Iran via Syria after rebels ousted the Assad regime in Damascus last month. The group is also under heavy financial scrutiny, impacting its capabilities to compensate people who lost their homes in the war.