As Israel plans to conquer Gaza, analysts warn of bloodier phase ahead

Israel's war on Gaza, entering its 22nd month, is at a critical juncture as the Israeli Knesset is expected to vote today on a controversial plan proposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy the war-torn coastal enclave.

If implemented, the plan will have major implications for Gaza's population, Israeli captives held by Hamas, and the increasingly fragile negotiations mediated by regional and international actors.

The plan, detailed by Israel's Channel 12, outlines a phased military approach focused on five pillars: encirclement of central Gaza Strip and Gaza City, intensive firepower deployment, selective ground operations, minimising attrition within the Israeli military, and steering clear of booby-trapped zones that could endanger the lives of Israeli detainees.

While Netanyahu's proposal stops short of a full occupation, the staged strategy reveals Israel's intent to assert long-term control over large swaths of Gaza, a prospect analysts warn could ignite an even bloodier and more complex battle.

From tactical operations to strategic redesign

According to Israeli media, the first step involves the occupation of Gaza City through an organised military campaign beginning with the forced evacuation of between 900,000 to one million civilians to the southern area of Al-Mawasi.

The area, already overcrowded and suffering severe shortages, will reportedly be prepared to receive the displaced with logistical backing from the United States.

While Israeli officials emphasise that a comprehensive occupation is not yet on the table, the military has reportedly drafted contingency plans for permanent control of border areas captured earlier in the war.

This includes the so-called "security strip" adjacent to the separation fence, which would be transformed into a zone of Israeli administrative and military dominance.

Speaking to The New Arab, Palestinian political analysts believe that these developments suggest a larger objective: to fragment Gaza's territorial and social fabric through military means, under the guise of neutralising Hamas and liberating Israeli captives.

Hussam al-Dajani, a Palestinian political analyst from Gaza, argues that the plan reflects a deep strategic pivot in Israel's war objectives.

"At this point in the conflict, Israel is effectively transitioning toward occupation […] It is no longer about destroying Hamas's infrastructure from the air. The leadership in Tel Aviv believes that decisive results demand boots on the ground, even if that leads to catastrophic escalation," he told TNA.

He warned that a full-scale occupation would almost likely result in the execution of Israeli captives. "Hamas has made it clear that any comprehensive invasion would be met with retaliatory action. The captives are a central part of its strategic calculus," al-Dajan said.

Hamas at a crossroads

As Israeli tanks inch closer to the heart of Gaza, Hamas faces dire options. The group can either continue fighting in a landscape decimated by aerial bombardment, with dwindling access to fortified tunnels and mounting civilian pressure, or enter negotiations that could force it into painful political concessions.

"What Hamas is doing right now is playing for time," al-Dajani argued. "It's banking on a shift in international pressure, especially from Washington, Cairo, and Doha, to force a less catastrophic settlement. But that time is rapidly running out."

The internal debate within Hamas is reportedly intensifying, as military leaders in Gaza clash with political figures abroad over strategy. Some argue for prolonging resistance in hopes of international intervention, while others fear collapse under the weight of Israeli advances and humanitarian collapse.

Esmat Mansour, a Ramallah-based political analyst, believes the negotiations have lost their original humanitarian and political rationale.

"The talks have become a mechanism to prolong the war and provide political cover for what is, in effect, a campaign of genocide against the people of Gaza," he told TNA.

Mansour opined that Hamas must now consider an audacious political manoeuvre to undercut Israel's narrative and avert complete occupation.

"Hamas should propose a comprehensive initiative, one that temporarily transfers the files of the hostages, weapons, and civil administration to a unified Palestinian body or a neutral Arab entity like the Arab League or Egypt," he suggested.

This, he stressed, should be contingent on binding international guarantees to halt the war, lift the blockade, and reopen Gaza's borders. "The initiative would also include a settlement freeze, a halt to Israeli provocations at Al-Aqsa Mosque, and a timeline for Palestinian elections within one year," Mansour remarked.

While such a proposal would be politically risky, he argued that it may be the only way for Hamas to preserve any meaningful political leverage. "It could spare Gaza a deeper occupation, while offering Hamas a way out without total collapse," he said.

Gaza as a disintegrated geography

Beyond the battlefield, Mustafa Ibrahim, a Gaza-based political analyst, sees a more insidious dimension to the proposed Israeli operation: the deliberate reshaping of Gaza's geography and demographics.

"It is a strategy to dismember Gaza, both socially and physically," he said, urging that the plan uses war-induced famine and aid restrictions to engineer "voluntary displacement," which in reality amounts to slow-motion ethnic cleansing.

"What we're seeing is a push for strategic migration, displacement in phases, enabled by a collapsed humanitarian environment," he said.

Israeli military sources have reportedly proposed reopening the "Netzarim Axis" in the central Gaza Strip—a former military road—to permanently sever Gaza City from the southern regions of the enclave.

This would effectively slice Gaza into disconnected zones, hampering movement and governance, just like the occupied West Bank.

Meanwhile, Israeli media outlets reported that the United States is preparing to establish more aid distribution centres to be administered by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, reaching to 16 in all, giving the illusion of humanitarian relief while acting as tools of social control. Testimonies from survivors and aid workers describe these centres as "death traps," where desperate civilians risk sniper fire and stampedes for a few bags of flour.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza warned that such operations are taking place against a backdrop of unprecedented human loss. Since 7 October 2023, the Israeli army has killed at least 60,000 Palestinians, while nearly 10,000 are believed to remain buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings.

Aid organisations have repeatedly cautioned that any full-scale ground operation will unleash further catastrophe on a civilian population already pushed to the edge.

Eternal war?

As Israel's military plans persists, international diplomacy remains stalled. The absence of a viable ceasefire framework, coupled with Israel's ambition toward long-term control, signals that the war has entered a new phase, one not defined by its stated objectives, but by an open-ended occupation project with severe humanitarian costs.

Israel insists the plan is necessary to dismantle Hamas and rescue captives. But al-Dajani, Mansour, and Ibrahim agree that it reflects a deeper ambition: to re-engineer the Gaza Strip through layered military, geographic, and humanitarian control mechanisms.

Hamas, meanwhile, teeters between options that all appear bleak. Whether it fights on, enters negotiations from a weakened position, or implodes under pressure, the consequences will reshape not only Gaza but the trajectory of the entire Palestinian national movement, al-Dajani explained.

Once again, Gaza's civilians, displaced, starved, and bereaved, are being forced to bear the heaviest cost, according to Mansour.

"In the absence of the international will to halt the war, Gaza may be dragged into a protracted occupation with no clear endpoint, only deepening suffering and a fading horizon for peace," Ibrahim warned.