As residents of Gaza anxiously wait for the reopening of the Rafah border crossing after nearly two years of its closure, analysts warn that the Israeli policy is aimed at achieving a net exodus of Palestinians.
A statement published on Friday by the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the Israeli military body tasked with overseeing the occupation, confirmed it would be opening the southern Gaza border crossing with Egypt on Sunday.
The announcement specified that it would only allow a "limited movement of people only".
Although there are conflicting reports on how many people will be able to cross the border, sources suggest it wouldn’t be any more than 150 people allowed to leave Gaza daily.
What reports do suggest, however, is that the plan is engineered to facilitate a one-way flow system, with more being allowed to leave the besieged territory than enter.
"The exit policy is designed for long-term demographic change, not temporary displacement", Ihab Maharmeh, a policy analyst at Al Shabaka told The New Arab.
Maharmeh argues that this is the latest in a series of long-standing policies by the Israeli government to depopulate the enclave.
He also points to the internal paper that was circulated by Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel just days after 7 October 2023, which "explicitly proposed relocating Gaza’s population to Egypt’s Sinai in phased stages". The plan at the time had proposed Cairo set up 'tent cities' and a 'sterile zone' inside Egypt to keep Palestinians from re-entering along the border.
"This approach is reinforced by the National Security Doctrine and Policy Guidelines for 2025-2026", Maharmeh continues, "as well as repeated statements by [Finance Minister] Bezalel Smotrich and [National Security Minister] Itamar Ben-Gvir calling for the 'encouragement of voluntary migration' from Gaza".
An EU report published in November 2025 states that over 130,000 people, including some 30,000 children, have fled Gaza to Egypt since the onset of the war. With the announcement of the border crossing’s reopening, more than 30,000 of them have registered to the Palestinian Embassy in Cairo to return to Gaza, according to Egyptian security sources.
COGAT said it would allow the return of "residents who left Gaza during the course of the war only, and only after prior security clearance by Israel".
But as analysts and sources close to the negotiations hint at a likely case of more Palestinians being allowed out than those being returned, the policy raises questions about the risk of a steady demographic change.
Coordination in name, control in Israel’s hands
According to Israeli authorities, multiple countries and institutions will be involved in overseeing the Rafah border crossing, including the Palestinian Authority, a European Union mission, and Egypt.
Israel, however, will retain all control of who will be allowed to enter or exit.
"Israel is likely to exercise effective control over all entry and exit to and from Gaza by imposing Israeli security screening and establishing military checkpoints near Gaza’s borders, effectively subordinating any Egyptian role at the Rafah crossing to Israeli security decisions", Maharmeh said.
Reports have emerged this week about delays in the reopening of the crossing due in part to disagreements between Cairo and Tel Aviv. According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority, Egypt was unhappy with Israel wanting the number of Palestinians leaving to be greater than the number of those entering, instead insisting on an equal ratio.
North Sinai Governor said on Egyptian state television on Wednesday that the governorate, responsible for the Egyptian side of the crossing, was "prepared for all potential scenarios".
Israel has historically had the upper hand in negotiations over Egypt, and analysts believe this time round the situation will be no different.
"By tightly restricting returns through the Rafah crossing, such as barring those who left during the war or children born outside Gaza afterwards, Israel can ensure that more Palestinians leave than return, effectively advancing a policy aimed at depopulating Gaza", Ihab Maharmeh told The New Arab.
A humanitarian opening with political limits
The reopening of Rafah, while framed as a humanitarian measure, may also function as a pressure valve that manages, rather than reverses, displacement.
Even as the crossing is welcomed by Palestinians desperate for movement after months of siege, the absence of clarity over return rights, aid transit, and long-term guarantees raises concerns that limited mobility could be used to normalise a slow but enduring demographic shift.
Although the opening of Rafah has largely been welcomed as a positive step towards alleviating humanitarian conditions for Gaza’s two million displaced residents, it remains unclear when trucks will be allowed to transit through the southern crossing, or whether the movement of goods will match the urgency of civilian needs.
With the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire formally completed after the body of the last Israeli captive was retrieved earlier this month, Palestinian civilians and officials alike hope the reopening will signal the beginning of the second stage of the agreement — one that would include sustained aid access and broader freedom of movement.
Ali Shaath, the Palestinian technocrat scheduled to head Gaza’s interim body, said that "opening Rafah signals Gaza is no longer closed to the future and to the world".
But for many Palestinians, the crossing now stands not just as a border, but as a litmus test of whether Gaza’s future is one of recovery — or managed erasure.