Israel eyes regime change in Tehran as war with Iran enters seventh day

Israel's war against Iran has entered its seventh day, with growing signs that its ambitions go far beyond targeting nuclear facilities. Officials have increasingly hinted that toppling the Iranian regime is part of the conflict's broader objective in what appears to be a dangerous and delusional escalation with little grounding in regional realities.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led the charge, telling Fox News on Sunday that regime change "could certainly be the result", claiming that "the Iran regime is very weak". His remarks came days after he addressed the Iranian public directly, calling on them to "stand up for your freedom from an evil and oppressive regime", adding: "It has never been weaker."

Other Israeli officials echoed the message. Defence Minister Israel Katz wrote on X that he had ordered airstrikes to "undermine the ayatollahs's regime," while Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli shared a photograph alongside Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, captioned "Soon in Tehran" in a not-so-subtle nod to Israel's interest in returning a Western-aligned monarchy to power.

As these calls for regime overthrow mount, US President Donald Trump has threatened to join the fray. While mulling US military involvement, he called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and warned that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would not be killed "at least not for now".

Khamenei is not just a leading political figure in Iran. He is also a senior religious authority for millions of Shia Muslims in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, and his killing is likely to provoke a powerful reaction across the Shia world.

The drumbeat of regime change rhetoric has been amplified by Israeli media. The Jerusalem Post published an editorial openly calling on Trump to "finish the job" and help dismantle the Iranian state, which has long funded forces, including Hamas and Hezbollah, who had become an enduring source of insecurity for Israel.

Delusions of dominance

Despite the growing volume of this messaging, seasoned observers are casting doubt on Israel’s capacity to bring about regime change, describing the idea as strategic fantasy dressed in military bluster.

Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political commentator and former academic, questioned whether Netanyahu even had clear objectives when launching the war.

"I don’t think Israel knew where it was going," he told The New Arab. "It struck and then continued to strike. It was never going to be able to destroy the nuclear program on its own."

Goldberg added: "Israelis are intoxicated with what they perceive as their newly reclaimed impunity," warning that Trump's hesitation to commit forces was a troubling sign for Israel's long-term goals.

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, dismissed hopes of an externally imposed regime transition as "magical thinking".

Speaking to The New Arab, he said that even if Iran's government was weakened, the likely outcomes include a hardened regime under heavy sanctions, or civil collapse, with armed unrest and separatist violence tearing through the country.

"Israel's objective is not necessarily regime change, but regime destabilisation… so that it can no longer challenge Israel's hegemony in the region. I think that is the ultimate objective," Vaez said.

"The risk right now is that, on the back of these impressive military wins, Israel and the US get carried away by hubris and believe they can shape the region in their own image," he cautioned.