As Israel launches 'conquest' of Gaza, are indirect negotiations with Hamas dead?

As Israeli forces intensify an unprecedented bombardment across and an 'extensive invasion' of the Gaza Strip, killing on average a hundred Palestinian civilians per day, hopes for a negotiated ceasefire and any further prisoner exchange deal have rapidly dwindled.

The latest round of indirect negotiations in Doha between Hamas and Israel, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, appears to be on the verge of collapse, further deepening the humanitarian catastrophe and political gridlock engulfing the besieged coastal enclave.

In a pointed public rebuke, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani warned Monday that Israel's "aggressive behaviour" following the release of dual-national Edan Alexander by Hamas was "undermining every possible opportunity for peace."

Addressing the opening session of the Qatar Economic Forum, Al Thani said, "When the Israeli-American soldier was released, we thought that moment would open a door to ending this tragedy. But the response was a wave of even more violent bombing."

Highlighting the growing gap between negotiating parties, he added, "One side [Hamas] seeks a comprehensive agreement, while the other [Israel] clings to a partial solution. The gap remains deep, and we have not yet managed to bridge it."

Israeli delegation pulls back

Al Thani's frustration comes amid mounting signs that the talks have reached an impasse.

Citing anonymous Israeli officials, Israel Hayom newspaper reported Tuesday that the Israeli delegation may withdraw from Doha and return to Tel Aviv due to "a complete stalemate," blaming Hamas for rejecting all American proposals based on the so-called Witkoff Plan, drafted by US special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Israeli Channel 13 confirmed the shift, citing government sources, who said that Tel Aviv is "considering the return of senior negotiators for consultations."

However, a final decision had yet to be made.

Israeli government spokesperson Omer Dostri said in a press statement, "The plan on the table is the Witkoff Plan. It's the only one, and it's acceptable to the Americans. War is only a means, and once Hamas is no longer in Gaza and all prisoners are released, it is best to stop it."

Hamas shows flexibility but demands guarantees

Hamas has signalled openness to a phased deal, though only under strict conditions, according to a source within the Islamic movement who preferred not to mention his name.

Speaking to The New Arab, the source said, "We do not object to a gradual deal to end the war, but only if serious international guarantees ensure that Israel will not resume the war in two or even six months."

The official added that Hamas is prepared to support the handover of Gaza's administration to "an acceptable Palestinian authority" in exchange for safeguarding Palestinians' rights and security.

But he noted, "the Israeli delegation offered no real concessions and instead insisted on illogical demands regarding the release of prisoners without giving anything in return."

He accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of weaponising the hostage issue to bolster his standing amid deepening political turmoil at home.

'We're the only ones paying the price'

On the ground, Palestinians in Gaza are growing desperate over stalled diplomacy and relentless Israeli attacks.

"For months we've heard about negotiations, but every day we go to sleep and wake up to the sound of bombing," said Raghda Abu Jarad, a displaced mother sheltering near Deir al-Balah, remarked to TNA.

"The negotiations' failure means we will never have truce, food, or even life. We're tired of false promises," the 45-year-old mother of four lamented.

Khalil al-Najjar, a young man from al-Nuseirat refugee camp, asked bitterly: "If they're really negotiating, why do the massacres continue? No one cares, neither the Palestinian negotiators nor the Israelis or even the mediators. We're the only ones paying the price."

He believes the negotiations are little more than a cover for forced concessions. "What's happening now is a bargain over our blood. Israel wants to impose facts on the ground with bombs, then drag us into an agreement that doesn't guarantee our dignity or rights," he said to TNA.

Lack of vision and trust

Separately speaking to TNA, Palestinian political analysts say the faltering talks reflect a deeper dysfunction, namely, a breakdown of trust and political will on all sides.

Mustafa Ibrahim, a Gaza-based analyst, argues that the deadlock is "a natural outcome of mutual mistrust and Netanyahu's use of war as a political strategy to stay in power."

"What's needed isn't just a prisoner swap, but a comprehensive vision to end the aggression, rebuild Gaza, and empower Palestinians to decide their own future," he argued to TNA.

Ahmed Rafiq Awad, a Ramallah-based political analyst, echoed a similar sentiment, suggesting that Hamas is engaging in "tactical flexibility to gain political legitimacy." At the same time, he says, Israel "seeks to wear the movement down militarily before entertaining any serious settlement."

Awad added that while the United States is involved, "its pressure is too limited to create a breakthrough, especially with the ongoing Palestinian political division."

He stressed that "the humanitarian crisis must be prioritised. The war is only serving Israel’s goals of demographic manipulation and territorial control."

As negotiations stall, Israel is accelerating its military operations in Gaza, where at least 72 Palestinians were killed on Tuesday alone by the Israeli army attacks, according to local health authorities.

The Israeli army also issued fresh evacuation orders targeting several areas of Khan Younis, displacing dozens more amid mounting hardship.

Analysts and rights groups warn that the military campaign is part of a broader plan to depopulate northern Gaza permanently.

Israeli Army Radio reported that authorities are establishing four aid distribution points, one just south of the Salah al-Din (Netzarim) axis and three others in southern Gaza.

According to the report, Palestinians who cross south to access aid at the Netzarim checkpoint will not be permitted to return to the north, effectively turning humanitarian access into what one official described as a "one-way ticket."

"This isn't just a military campaign," said one international aid worker who requested anonymity. "It's a policy of engineered displacement. And unless a political agreement emerges soon, Gaza's demographic fabric may be irreparably torn."