As Iraq heads for elections, PM Sudani faces mounting pressure from Iran-backed militias and rivals

With Iraq's parliamentary elections just three months away, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is under mounting pressure from Iran-backed militias, President Abdul Latif Rashid, and rival political blocs, amid intensifying scrutiny from both the United States and Iran.

As Iraq gears up for elections on 11 November, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is navigating increasingly treacherous political terrain. After coming to power in October 2022 with the backing of the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework (CF), he is now seeking a second term under the Construction and Development coalition—a move that has sparked resentment not only from his former Shia allies but also among Kurdish and Sunni blocs.

Among those turning against him are his original supporters. In an emergency meeting on Saturday, 2 August, Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi called on CF leaders to effectively curtail al-Sudani's decision-making, accusing him of making "erratic" moves that contradict the alliance’s core principles. He urged them to "safeguard Iraq and its sanctities" until the end of al-Sudani's term.

The call came just days after a deadly incident in Baghdad's Karkh district, where members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) stormed the Agriculture Ministry during the swearing-in of a new director. Three people, including a police officer, were killed. In a rare step, the Joint Operations Command—which reports directly to the prime minister—confirmed that 14 fighters from PMF brigades 45 and 46, affiliated with Kataib Hezbollah, had been referred to the judiciary.

Al-Hamidawi demanded a full investigation, recommending the formation of a CF committee to review surveillance footage and testimonies from security personnel. He ruled out any political settlement, insisting that "the law must take its course" regardless of political affiliation. He also called for transparency around the alleged arrest and torture of civilians at Baghdad's al-Saqr base, describing the incident as a grave breach of legal norms.

In a post on X, Kataib Hezbollah security official Abu Ali al-Askari claimed the raid was a "pre-planned trap" aimed at the group. He accused al-Sudani of retaliating against the group’s media criticism and its positions on national issues, including the Khor Abdullah maritime dispute and the presence of foreign forces. Al-Askari described the PM as a "successful manager but not a successful leader" and urged CF leaders to overthrow him before the crisis deepens.

Pressure is also mounting from Iraq's presidency. Recently, President Abdul Latif Rashid has indirectly accused al-Sudani of using state resources to bolster his campaign. In response, Rashid has submitted a series of proposals to the CF to safeguard electoral transparency. These include suspending new appointments, halting welfare enrolments and land allocations, and restricting the use of public office during campaigns. The measures—agreed with al-Sudani in late July—are due to be discussed at the upcoming summit of the four presidencies.

Meanwhile, parliament has emerged as another front in the power struggle. Iran-aligned Shia blocs are pressuring the speaker to advance a controversial bill restructuring the PMF, granting it its own funding and command structure. Critics say the move risks embedding militia power within the state. The United States has warned that passing the bill would institutionalise Iranian influence and has even threatened sanctions, leaving the door open to targeted strikes against militia leaders.

Al-Sudani and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a call on 22 July, discussing recent attacks on energy infrastructure in the Kurdistan Region, efforts to resume oil exports through Turkey, and the draft PMF bill. Rubio reiterated US concerns over the law, urging Baghdad to uphold accountability for attacks and ensure regular salary payments in Kurdistan. Washington sees the bill as a threat to Iraq's sovereignty and a tool to cement Iran's influence on Iraqi institutions.

Tensions came to a head on 5 July, when a parliamentary session descended into fistfights over the PMF legislation. Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani later declared the session invalid, saying it took place without his authorisation. However, First Deputy Speaker Mohsen al-Mandalawi defended the 5 August session he chaired as fully legal under parliamentary rules.

With political rifts deepening, armed factions on edge, and key legislative sessions paralysed, the Iraqi political scene is once again on a knife-edge.