Iraqi factions delay arms handover to state to after 30 September

Iraqi political sources told The New Arab that unpublicised talks continue between the negotiating committee formed by the Coordination Framework and many armed factions opposed to handing over their weapons to the state.

The talks aim to reach a compromise formula allowing the issue to be deferred to after 30 September and preventing the dispute over restricting weapons to state control from becoming a confrontation between the factions and Iraqi forces.

This comes as the government confirms that dialogue with the factions is proceeding regularly and that the dispute is focused primarily on mechanisms for implementing the process of restricting weapons.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has less than 40 days left to complete "restricting weapons to the hands of the state", as the deadline granted to the factions expires on 30 September. 

But this date may not be final, particularly as some factions have refused to cooperate with the Iraqi state on the matter.

"The direction being proposed within the Coordination Framework is not to cancel the decision to restrict weapons to the hands of the state but to extend the timeframe allocated for negotiations and implementation, allowing for a final agreement to be reached on mechanisms for handing over weapons," the sources said.

"This would take into account the demand of the factions opposed to the move that any step in this direction be preceded by the complete withdrawal of US and international coalition forces from Iraqi territory, scheduled for 30 Sept," they said.

According to the sources, "Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition, has joined this process alongside Badr Organisation leader Hadi al-Amiri and Hikma Movement leader Ammar al-Hakim."

"A proposal is now being discussed within the Coordination Framework to avoid any escalation measures after the specified deadline and instead work to use the period following the US withdrawal to complete understandings with the factions, particularly Hezbollah Brigades, al-Nujaba Movement and Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, which remain among the main forces opposed to the immediate handover of weapons," the sources added.

The sources further noted that unannounced talks are still taking place between the negotiating committee formed by the Coordination Framework and the factions on one side and the government on the other.

The talks seek to reach a final agreement on implementing the decision to restrict weapons to the hands of the state and postpone the deadline beyond 30 Sept.

The sources stressed these proposals are being discussed during meetings to prevent any anticipated serious security escalation and said a final plan will be reached in the coming days.

Government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi's statements last Friday, 21 August, are particularly significant in this context after he explained that 30 Sept. is the date for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, not "the final deadline for the factions to restrict their weapons".

He also confirmed that dialogue with the factions is progressing and that the current dispute concerns mechanisms.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi stressed that his government has no intention of engaging in a military confrontation with the factions and that work is continuing to establish mechanisms for handing over weapons.

These moves come as political and security concerns grow that the expiry of the deadline without an agreement could put the government before a highly sensitive test.

It would either have to implement its decision through security measures that could lead to a confrontation with factions possessing military capabilities and political influence or accept an extension of negotiations, which could be interpreted politically as a retreat from the previous timeframe.

For this reason, the mediation led by Coordination Framework leaders appears primarily aimed at managing the period after the end of September without a security explosion while maintaining the principle of restricting weapons to the hands of the state as the final basis for a settlement.

Ali al-Yaseri, a member of the Coordination Framework, told The New Arab, "Postponing the deadline for restricting weapons to the hands of the state beyond next Sept. 30 is an option on the table and under discussion, and there is nothing to prevent extending the period if that serves Iraq's higher interests and ensures the decision is implemented properly without entering into any security escalation."

"30 Sept. is not a constitutional date or one set by law, but rather a political and security deadline adopted as part of the process of addressing the issue of weapons and the military presence of the international coalition," al-Yaseri said. "Therefore, postponing it for a limited period does not mean retreating from or cancelling the decision to restrict weapons to the hands of the state."

"Dialogue between the parties concerned with this issue is ongoing and continuous, and there is serious discussion about the possibility of granting an additional period that could extend to one or two months," he added. "This is particularly the case if there are genuine intentions among the factions concerned to implement the state's decision according to mechanisms and guarantees agreed in advance."

He confirmed that "the postponement, if adopted, will be linked to several issues, foremost among them completing the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Iraqi territory and agreeing on a clear mechanism for handing over weapons."

"This also includes determining the political, security and legal guarantees accompanying the implementation process in a way that prevents a vacuum or security tensions," he said.

Al-Yaseri stressed that "the aim of any possible extension is not to give the factions an open-ended deadline but to provide enough time to finalise the agreement and reach a practical implementation of the decision to restrict weapons to the hands of the state, away from any confrontation or clash that could have serious repercussions for the overall political and security situation in Iraq."

"The priority now is to make the dialogue successful and reach an understanding that preserves the state's authority and sovereignty while at the same time preventing a move towards escalation options. Therefore, all options relating to the timing and mechanisms of implementation remain under consideration and discussion among the parties concerned," he concluded.

If the situation moves towards postponing the 30 Sept. deadline, the weapons issue in Iraq will have entered a different negotiating phase whose main focus will be finding a settlement that postpones the moment of resolution without abandoning the principle of restricting weapons to the hands of the state.

In contrast, strategic affairs expert Hussein al-Asaad told TNA, "Care must be taken to ensure that any government retreat from the decision to restrict weapons to the hands of the state, or an extension of the implementation deadline without a clear process and defined timeframe, does not expose Iraq to major political and security repercussions."

"This is particularly important amid intensive international and US monitoring of this issue. The weapons issue is no longer purely an internal matter but has become linked to Iraq's image and its relations with Washington and the international community," he said.

Al-Asaad further explained that "the government must distinguish between postponing implementation for technical and political reasons linked to finalising understandings and retreating from the decision itself, because the two are entirely different."

"Any postponement must be announced as part of a clear and specific plan that includes stages, implementation mechanisms and guarantees so that it is not understood externally as the government's inability to enforce the state's decision," he added.

"The United States is closely monitoring this issue, as are other international parties, because the issue of weapons outside state institutions is directly linked to the level of stability and Iraqi sovereignty, the government's ability to control the territory and airspace, and its ability to prevent Iraq from being used as an arena for settling regional conflicts."

"The problem does not lie in holding dialogue with the factions or giving them additional time to implement the decision, as this process may be necessary to avoid a confrontation. Rather, the problem lies in the postponement turning into an open-ended policy without tangible results," al-Asaad further noted.

He warned that "this would weaken the government's position internally and externally and could give the impression that the decision to restrict weapons is reversible under pressure from armed groups.

"Iraq is facing a real test of state sovereignty. Therefore, any settlement should preserve the essence of the decision, which is that weapons and military decisions be placed within state institutions, while allowing for agreement on the stages, timing and guarantees of implementation demanded by some factions," he opined.

Al-Asaad continued, "A complete retreat from the decision could open the door to greater US and international pressure, particularly if armed groups possessing missile and drone capabilities remain outside state control."

"The government's success in managing this issue will not be measured only by its ability to avoid confrontation but also by its ability to reach an outcome that preserves the state's authority and sovereignty. Temporary de-escalation without a fundamental solution may postpone the crisis without ending it, while any ill-considered retreat from the decision to restrict weapons would be politically and security-wise costly for Iraq," he said.

For weeks, the Iraqi government has faced renewed escalation from the most influential factions closest to Tehran, most notably Hezbollah Brigades, al-Nujaba, Ansar Allah al-Awfiya and Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades.

The factions have announced their refusal to hand over their weapons and considered the issue "not open to discussion".

This has coincided with a clear shift in the positions of other factions and groups following the visit to Baghdad two weeks ago by Ismail Qaani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, as well as the visit by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf this week.

The visits came to strengthen the position of Iraqi factions that have begun to feel a real threat as a result of the judicial and government pressure in the country.

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.