Iraq has secured a pledge from Turkey to increase water discharges to 420 cubic metres per second in a bid to ease a worsening drought that has strained the country's water resources and affected millions.
The agreement was announced on Tuesday following a visit by Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani and a delegation to Ankara, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan approved the move.
The deal comes amid one of Iraq's most severe water crises in decades. With declining rainfall, rising temperatures, and upstream damming by neighbouring states, both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have seen sharp drops in flow. The impacts have been felt nationwide—from the drying of marshlands and water shortages in the south to the increasing salinity in the Shatt al-Arab near Basra.
Iraqi officials welcomed Ankara's decision, but water experts say it falls short of addressing the deeper structural problems. They are calling for Iraq to pursue international arbitration and file formal complaints against both Turkey and Iran to secure long-term water rights.
Dr Abdul Mutalib Rafat, a professor of water resources at Garmiyan University, cautioned that the Turkish gesture is only a temporary fix.
"This is only a short-term measure," Rafat told The New Arab. "Turkey's GAP project and Iran's damming of Tigris tributaries have drastically reduced Iraq's water supply. Without legal action at the international level, Iraq will remain vulnerable."
Rafat criticised the Iraqi state for failing to assert its water rights diplomatically and legally, noting that internal political divisions and sectarian allegiances have prevented a unified response. He also blamed the crisis on poor water governance, outdated infrastructure, and wasteful usage.
"Much of Iraq's water is simply wasted. It pours into the sea instead of being conserved, reused, or redirected. Turkey and Iran are not entirely wrong in their criticism," he added.
Turkey's Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), first proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Technology in the 1970s, aimed to construct 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants to generate 27 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually and irrigate 1.7 million hectares of farmland.
Groundwater depletion, pollution threat
Compounding the crisis is a sharp drop in groundwater reserves, with levels reportedly falling to 600 metres in Erbil and 200 metres in Sulaymaniyah. Rafat warned that excessive extraction, often unregulated, could leave Iraq without viable reserves for future generations.
"This water must be preserved for the future. Illegal drilling should be stopped immediately," Rafat said.
He also raised concerns over the pollution of the Tanjiro River in Sulaymaniyah, which carries industrial and sewage waste into Darbandikhan Lake.
"Urgent action is needed — including heavy water treatment and recycling facilities — to stop this contamination from reaching central and southern Iraq," Rafat said.
The expert urged both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to build strategic dams, upgrade irrigation systems, and enforce residential water reuse to conserve Iraq's limited water supply.
The Ministry of Water Resources has confirmed that Iraq's reserves are now at historically low levels. Ministry spokesman Khaled Shamal told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, TNA's Arabic language sister website, that the country is relying on limited releases from the Mosul and Haditha dams, along with modest supplies from Lake Tharthar, which contributes only 41 cubic metres per second (m³/s).
These scarce resources are being directed to key irrigation projects, including the Dukan Dam, which servs Kirkuk, and the Darbandikhan Dam, which feeds the Diyala River.
Shamal also noted that Syria is suffering from a severe drought, reducing the Euphrates River's flows to Iraq to just 300 m³/s — a figure that could fall further during the summer if levels behind Syria's Tabqa Dam drop.
Flows from Turkey into the Tigris currently fluctuate between 140 and 200 m³/s, but are expected to rise once the Ilisu hydroelectric station becomes fully operational.
Desalination projects and enforcement in Basra
In southern Iraq, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced a series of new measures during a visit to Basra on Wednesday. Chief among them is a seawater desalination project, intended to secure drinking water for Basra, Maysan, and Dhi Qar governorates.
"This crisis recurs each year, worsened by climate change and reduced upstream releases," al-Sudani said during a press conference. "We've approved the main desalination project and authorised Basra's governor to finalise the contract with the implementing company."
According to the prime minister, the executing firm is already on-site and has begun initial work. Additional desalination units will be installed across other districts to further support clean water needs.
Al-Sudani also addressed the issue of illegal fish farms, which he said significantly reduce river flow and worsen water scarcity.
A recent Forbes report named Iraq one of the world's most water-insecure countries, pointing to climate change, upstream dam projects, and domestic mismanagement. According to the report, strategic water reserves have dropped to 10 billion cubic metres, nearly half the 18 billion cubic metres needed to meet summer demands.
Former water ministry adviser Ahmed Majid said that while Turkey's increased discharges may offer some relief, the situation remains precarious.
"The increased flows will help cities in the centre and south for now," Majid said. "But Iraq must also negotiate with Iran, which has diverted several Tigris River tributaries that feed Iraq's northeast."
"Groundwater extraction is being considered in many areas, but it's not sustainable," he warned. "Iraq must act now, diplomatically and legally, or face a future defined by water poverty."