Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani insists that Iraq’s oil export quota should reflect the country's true production capacity and reserves, underscoring that global export limits must be revised accordingly.
At the Baghdad International Energy Forum, al-Sudani argued Iraq's 150 billion barrels of reserves and century-long supply capability make a stronger case for increasing the export quota in line with its national strengths.
"We seek a revised export quota that matches Iraq's true oil capacity and economic needs," al-Sudani stated in an official release on Saturday.
Economist Nabil al-Marsoumi noted in a post on its Facebook page that Iraq exported approximately 3.458 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in August, nearly reaching the country's maximum capacity of 3.5 million bpd. He specified that all shipments were routed through southern terminals, indicating near-full use of Iraq's export infrastructure.
Al-Marsoumi said Iraq can only get a larger export quota by ending disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government and reopening the Ceyhan pipeline with Turkey. These steps are crucial for raising export volumes and easing fiscal constraints.
Bahrooz Jaafar, head of the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies, told The New Arab that Iraq's main challenge is not production, but rather exports. "All of Iraq's oil exports go through Basra ports. Any Gulf tension could put Iraq at risk," he said. Jaafar emphasised the need to restart oil flows from the Kurdistan region to Turkey's Ceyhan port. He warned that rising tensions between Israel and Iran could spark conflict.
He added that boosting Iraqi oil production would not significantly lower global prices. "Geopolitical tensions are the main factor," he said. Oil markets could see lower prices if the war in Ukraine were to end. Jaafar also said Israel wants to boost energy trade via the Mediterranean, not the Gulf. Most Gulf oil goes to Asian markets.
Al-Sudani used the forum to outline plans for reduced oil dependency by boosting refining, attracting investment, eliminating gas flaring, and expanding renewables—stressing Iraq must diversify and not rely solely on oil exports.
His remarks came as eight OPEC+ producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—met virtually on 7 September to review market conditions.
The group decided to adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October. This change reduces part of the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary cuts first announced in April 2023. They called the measure temporary, noting it could be reversed if market conditions change.
According to the OPEC website, Iraq's increased share is 17000 bpd, and thus Iraq's required production is scheduled to jump to 4237000 bpd in October.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraq’s federal Ministry of Oil announced a new oil export agreement for the Kurdish region last month. However, previous failures to implement similar deals have led to ongoing scepticism.
Finalised on 11 August after nearly a month of joint meetings and inspections of Kurdish oil fields, the deal allocates 50,000 bpd for domestic consumption in the Kurdistan Region. The remainder is to be handed over to the State Organisation for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) for export.
Any resumption of flows will require the Iraqi government to coordinate with Turkey and implement the agreed export procedures via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the KRG Ministry of Natural Resources stated on Wednesday.
Kurdish officials said current output has reached about 400,000 bpd—nearly back to normal levels—after more than 20 drone attacks, many on energy infrastructure, disrupted operations last month.
However, Turkey and international oil companies operating in the region have not yet begun to implement the agreement. Ankara has blocked oil flows since March 2023 due to a legal dispute over unauthorised exports.
OPEC+ producers also reaffirmed their collective commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation and to compensating for any overproduction since January 2024. The eight producers stated that they would continue to meet monthly, with the next session scheduled for 5 October.
OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, was founded in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela and has since grown to 13 members. The organisation regularly meets to set production targets and coordinate output, aiming to manage global oil prices.
In 2016, in response to falling prices driven by surging US shale oil production, OPEC forged an alliance with 10 other oil-producing countries, creating what is now known as OPEC+. Among those states was Russia, the world's third-largest producer in 2022, accounting for 13 percent of global output.
The group states that its objective is to "coordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries" to ensure stable prices, secure supply for consumers, and guarantee returns for investors, although it is best known for its influence over global crude markets.