Iraq's fight against ISIS makes progress amid debates over US military withdrawal

As Iraq prepares for the scheduled withdrawal of US forces by September, concerns are mounting about the country's ability to maintain security in its fight against the Islamic State group (ISIS). 

While Iraqi officials initially suggested the ISIS threat had been sufficiently contained, recent political shifts have led some factions, particularly those aligned with Iran, to reconsider the necessity of continued US support. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani has instructed security commanders to review their strategies and ensure tactical adjustments in areas where ISIS remains active.

While Iraq's military has made significant strides in dismantling ISIS remnants, experts warn that continued US support remains critical to ensuring the group's final defeat and long-term stability.

Iraqi security forces have made notable progress in their operations against ISIS, especially in areas like Anbar and Saladin provinces. Key regions such as the "Valley of Death" between Saladin and Diyala provinces and Rawah in Anbar have been focal points of military activity.

These operations have resulted in the elimination of senior ISIS leaders and the destruction of their hideouts in Iraq's desert regions. The Ministry of Defence recently detailed the success of these operations, stating that several prominent ISIS operatives had been killed and key positions dismantled.

Karim Al-Mohammadawi, Chairman of Iraq's Parliamentary Committee on Security and Defence, speaking to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, the Arabic-language sister outlet of The New Arab, praised the Iraqi forces for their effective operations.

He highlighted the increased effectiveness of Iraq's Air Force, which has made targeted strikes against ISIS leaders, reducing the need for international support in some areas. "We expect greater progress in eliminating what remains of ISIS," he said, expressing confidence in the military's ability to handle the situation independently in the future.

However, not all experts agree that Iraq can manage on its own.

Ghani Al-Ghadban, an Iraqi security analyst, emphasised that while Iraq's ground forces have been successful in holding territory, the country still depends on intelligence-sharing and air support from the US. 

"Iraqi forces are holding the border towards Syria, but they need intelligence and aerial reconnaissance to effectively track ISIS cells," he explained. "US forces continue to provide crucial intelligence and air superiority, particularly in cross-border operations against ISIS cells in Syria, which remain a significant threat."

Retired Major General Safaa Al-A'sam also stressed the importance of sustained military operations to prevent ISIS from regaining ground. 

"ISIS has lost nearly all of its military strength in Iraq, but the remaining cells are still active in desert and mountainous regions," he said. Al-A'sam pointed out that the Iraqi Air Force's precise strikes on ISIS supply lines are vital to keeping these cells under control. The military estimates that only about 400 active ISIS operatives remain in Iraq.

Despite these successes, political dynamics within Iraq have complicated the situation. The US-Iraq agreement, signed last year, outlines the gradual withdrawal of US forces by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026.  

Although Iraq's military has made significant progress, the debate over the future role of US forces continues.