Iraq launches regional water plan as Tigris and Euphrates levels hit historic lows

Facing the worst water reserves in eight decades, Iraq launched a regional initiative aimed at protecting the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, as officials and experts warn that upstream restrictions by Turkey and Iran are intensifying the country's water crisis.

Unveiled by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani at the Fifth Baghdad International Water Conference, the initiative—titled "Our Water... Our Future"—seeks to unite riparian states and scientific institutions to manage regional water resources through cooperation and innovation.

"This initiative aims to ensure the sustainability of our rivers by harnessing scientific and technological innovation in response to climate change," al-Sudani said during the conference's opening.

The plan comes at a critical moment. According to Khaled Shamal, spokesperson for the Ministry of Water Resources, Iraq now holds just 10 billion cubic metres of strategic reserves—nearly half the amount needed to begin summer.

"We haven't seen such a low reserve in 80 years," he told Agence France-Presse, adding that Iraq currently receives less than 40 percent of its historical share from the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.

The decline is attributed to a combination of climate-related factors—including poor rainfall and melting snow—and upstream water projects in neighbouring countries. The construction of dams in Turkey and Iran, analysts say, is strangling river flow into Iraq.

"Iraq, which is severely affected by climate change, suffers from an acute water crisis," Abdul Mutalib Rafaat, a professor of water resources at Garmian University, told The New Arab.

He pointed to Turkey's nearly completed Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP), warning that once finished, it will further reduce water flows into Iraq.

"Iraq once received over 20 billion cubic metres annually from the Tigris. That figure is now below five. Water from the Euphrates has fallen to around eight billion from nearly 42 billion cubic metres per year," Rafaat said.

He also cautioned that groundwater levels are expected to decline sharply in the next five years due to diminished rainfall and unregulated well use. 

Iran, he added, has diverted entire river courses for domestic use, breaching international treaties. "Iran treats Iraq as if it were a province," he said.

Rafaat criticised the Iraqi government for failing to bring legal action at the international level. "Iraq is a weak state. It cannot resist the regional hegemony of Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Iraqi officials do not take the water crisis seriously," he said.

Recent claims that Iraq had reached new water-sharing agreements with Turkey and Iran were dismissed by Rafaat, who argued that neither country honours bilateral accords or recognises international water treaties.

"It is absurd that Iraq is signing contracts with Turkish and Iranian firms to help fix a water crisis that those same governments have caused," he said, noting that many of the dams are located near earthquake-prone zones on Iraq's borders, posing a geological threat.

He urged Baghdad to initiate international legal proceedings and to invest in artificial lakes, water filtration infrastructure, and modern water management systems. "Otherwise, Iraq will face water wars with neighbouring countries and internal instability due to water-driven conflict," he warned.

The Prime Minister also recalled a statement by the UN Secretary-General during a past visit to Iraq, "The Tigris and Euphrates are a global concern, not just a local one."

The Fifth Baghdad International Water Conference brought together regional and international experts, policymakers, and companies under the theme "Water and Technology: A Partnership for Development."

Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources also adopted a new national slogan: "Our Water, Our Life, Our Dignity," aiming to reframe water as a resource for shared development rather than conflict.

In a related development, the Ministry of Construction, Housing, and Municipalities announced new desalination and smart water management projects to improve potable water quality and monitor usage more effectively.

Ammar al-Asadi, Director General of the Water Directorate, said Iraq has begun piloting a drainage water desalination project in partnership with the United Kingdom. The initiative is part of a broader Iraq–UK agreement signed in London and endorsed by Prime Minister al-Sudani.

Al-Asadi noted that 120 desalination units have already been completed and are now serving high-salinity areas, particularly in provinces like Basra, Diwaniyah, Dhi Qar, Wasit, and Anbar.

Other measures include the rollout of a national "Master Plan" for water and wastewater services, covering seven provinces initially. Smart meters, leak detection systems, and digital monitoring technologies are being deployed to modernise Iraq's ageing infrastructure.

Water scarcity is already having a tangible impact on the agricultural sector. With many farmers abandoning their land due to drought, the government has slashed the size of cultivated areas to prioritise drinking water.

Despite the announcement of a 10-year framework agreement between Iraq and Turkey to improve water resource management, scepticism remains. Turkish officials have urged Iraq to overhaul its inefficient irrigation networks, which lose significant water to evaporation.

But with the country ranked by the United Nations among the five nations most vulnerable to climate change, and its two lifeline rivers under mounting pressure, time may be running out. Without firm action—both domestically and internationally—Iraq's water crisis risks becoming unmanageable.