Iran's dispute with UAE over three islands in Gulf heats up

Beyond the usual holidays and religious dates, Iran's official calendar is filled with strange titles. The Cultural Revolution Council regularly adds fresh entries, turning ordinary days into national symbols. There is a Honey Day, a Rose and Rose Flower Day, and even a Cinema Day. Some names are more political: Nuclear Energy Day, Persian Gulf Day, and Fight Against Terrorism Day. Soon, a day will be dedicated to three islands in the Gulf.

Last week, Iran's Ministry of Culture announced that 29 November, marking the anniversary of the country's regaining control of the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, will be listed in the official calendar as the "National Day of the Iranian Islands of the Persian Gulf."

The move follows growing European pressure on Iran over ownership of the islands.

On 24 September, the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the UK's Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, called on Iran to find a peaceful solution to the dispute.

On 6 October, the European Union went further, accusing Iran of "occupying" the islands. In a joint statement, the GCC and EU foreign ministries urged Tehran "to end its occupation of the three islands".

While the dispute is not new, the recent strong backing from European countries has raised concerns among Iranian politicians.

"In recent years, the government has developed a habit of naming days after things it fears losing," an international relations professor in Tehran told The New Arab, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The more isolated the regime becomes, the more symbolic days it adds to the calendar as a propaganda tool to project strength," the academic added.

Tehran on defensive

Naming a day for the three islands in Iran's official calendar was the latest in a series of Tehran's responses over the past two months.

Iran quickly responded to European countries' support for the UAE's claims by summoning their ambassadors to Tehran. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said to Arab countries: "Repeating baseless claims in political statements has no legal value and does not change geographical realities or historical facts."

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called the UAE’s demands an illusion, and Mohammad Pakpour, the Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief, warned that any miscalculation by Iran's enemies in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the islands would face a "decisive, immediate, crushing, and regrettable response."

No senior political or military figure explained the reason behind their strong reactions. Yet, Iranian experts say the sharp statements reflect a more profound sense of political vulnerability in Tehran following Israel's attacks in June.

"The political system has weakened as Iran remains entangled in conflict with Israel," said Khosrow Motazed, an Iranian analyst. "The US and Europe's support for the UAE comes from Iran's current weak position."

History of the dispute

Looking back at the roots of the dispute, the academic in Tehran pointed to the early years after the 1979 revolution, when Iraq was the first to bring the issue of the three islands to the international stage.

"A few months after the revolution, during the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Havana, it was Saddam Hussein who told Iran to withdraw from the islands and hand them over to the Emirates," the academic said. "At that time, the UAE had not yet officially entered the debate in global forums and was far from being a regional power."

According to the expert, the regional balance of power has shifted dramatically since then.

"As Iran became more politically isolated, the UAE expanded its economic reach," they explained. "That gave it a stronger international voice. Now, countries that once backed Iran's claim to the islands call it instead an occupying force."

The dispute between Iran and the UAE over the three islands dates back more than half a century, to when Britain withdrew from its Gulf colonies and new states gained independence.

At that time, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, ruled the country after returning to power in a 1953 coup orchestrated by the United States and Britain. Along with the three islands, Iran also claimed Bahrain, which was then under British military support. But under British influence, the Shah gave up the claim to Bahrain in exchange for sovereignty over the islands.

The UAE, however, never accepted Iran's sovereignty. Still, under British influence, the Emirates did not press their claim and maintained friendly relations with the Shah.

After the 1979 revolution, the fall of the Shah, and the start of Iran's confrontation with the West and the Iran-Iraq war, the UAE began its challenge over the islands. The issue had by then moved beyond a territorial dispute.

It was no longer only about the islands' oil and gas resources, but also their strategic importance for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes daily.

Since 1979, Tehran has often used this strategic position to threaten to close the Strait. In recent years, Iran has strengthened its hold on the islands by building IRGC naval bases, air defence sites, and missile launchers, and by encouraging settlement through free land grants.

Although international pressure on Iran over the islands has increased in recent months, Iranian analysts believe it will likely remain limited to diplomatic statements and public remarks for the foreseeable future.

Motazed argued that the only way to separate the islands from Iran would be through war, a scenario he said the UAE is not militarily capable of pursuing.

The academic in Tehran, who also spoke to TNA, agreed that the UAE is unlikely to take concrete action to claim the islands but warned the dispute could strain relations between the two countries.

"With the return of international sanctions, Iran is now heavily dependent on the UAE," he said, noting that the Emirates serve as one of Iran's main import routes.

"The UAE may not win control of the islands anytime soon," he added, "but it will likely push for more economic concessions in the coming months to keep trade flowing through its channels."