Strategic retreat or tactical pause: Is Iran shifting support away from its regional proxies?

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, US pressure on Iran to stop its military and financial support for proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen has intensified.

The pressure reached a point where Iran's ambassador to Lebanon made a surprising comment recently, saying Tehran would not interfere if Lebanon decided to disarm Hezbollah.

This coincided with a Reuters report suggesting that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are "ready to give up their weapons", and with Iran's foreign ministry denying any involvement in missile attacks by the Houthis in Yemen against Israel.

Despite these recent developments, experts on Iran caution that it is too early to take such statements as signs of a real policy shift in the Islamic Republic.

Analysts speaking to The New Arab stress that the history of the Islamic Republic, especially at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, shows that even if these groups are disarmed, it should not be seen as a lasting victory.

Shift in Tehran's tone on Hezbollah?

On 24 April, Iran's state-run ISNA quoted Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, saying Iran would not interfere in "the resistance's disarmament".

This marked an apparent change from his earlier stance, where he had called the idea of Hezbollah's disarmament a US conspiracy in a tweet.

A source familiar with the workings of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, speaking to TNA on condition of anonymity, noted a marked shift in rhetoric. In the past, Iranian officials frequently boasted that US bases were within striking distance of Iraqi Shia militias and that Hezbollah's missiles could reach Israel.

Still, the source added, what matters most is not what Amani said, but what Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, indicated.

Khamenei, who has shown a dramatic shift in policy regarding negotiations with the US, warned his followers against "unreasonable objection, haste, and false analyses," hinting at a possible temporary change in strategy.

He also referred to a famous moment in Shia history, when Imam Hassan made peace with his rival Muawiyah: "When Imam Hassan al-Mujtaba made peace with Muawiyah, some people objected. But this dominance of disbelief and hypocrisy is only temporary."

To the source who spoke with TNA, Khamenei's message left little room for doubt.

"Before Khamenei speaks publicly, his decisions are already passed quietly to key figures, political groups, and media close to his office," the source said. "So the ambassador made his comments with the belief that the situation is temporary and aimed at easing pressure on Iran."

Tehran's regional strategy under fire

According to the source, the shift appears to simultaneously impact all of Iran's proxy forces. However, Tehran does not treat them uniformly. Each group has its own history and varying degrees of dependence on Iran.

"For Iran, agreeing to disarm Hezbollah would be like suicide," the source said. "Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful military arm in the Middle East, and Iran has heavily promoted its capabilities both politically and through propaganda."

However, a political science professor at Azad University, who asked not to be named, told TNA that over the past 46 years, the Islamic regime has shown a willingness to abandon ideological slogans when survival is at stake.

"[The founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ruhollah] Khomeini, once declared that the path to Quds passed through Karbala," the professor said. "Yet, he later accepted the ceasefire to end the Iran-Iraq war. He told his followers that doing so was like drinking a cup of poison."

According to this expert, "Iran is clearly on the defensive, and its proxy forces are also under serious pressure."

Still, he rejected the idea that this signals the end of Iran's regional influence, pointing to the post–Iran-Iraq war years as evidence of its resilience.

"Before Iran accepted peace with Iraq, American forces had destroyed much of the Iranian navy. After eight years of that war, Iran's economy was in ruins, and even its oil platforms were under attack by the US military in the Gulf," he said.

"Yet by accepting the ceasefire, Iran relieved those pressures and found a way to rebuild its economy. That eventually allowed it to develop a large missile and nuclear program, and to continue funding and arming Hezbollah and other groups," he added.

Now, over three decades later, the Iranian regime finds itself at another crossroads: under crippling economic sanctions, militarily threatened by the US and Israel, and forced to speak more softly.

However, as the academic points out, there is a key difference this time: "Its diplomats are not the same. After years of negotiations with the West, public propaganda, and power plays, they've learned how to survive without looking like they've stepped back."