Inside Washington's tougher position during the latest talks with Iran

Just a few weeks ago, the administration of US President Donald Trump was prepared to reach a deal with Iran that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But, today, it is rejecting in the current negotiations with Iran what it had been prepared to accept less than three months ago.

On 26 September, Trump publicly rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iran that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for lifting the US naval blockade, ending sanctions on oil exports and resuming nuclear negotiations. He said Iran was losing badly and wanted to reach a deal.

So what changed for the Trump administration? 

The United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on 13 April, before Trump announced on 19 August the start of what he described as the "most crushing economic operation ever"; part of a broad campaign of economic warfare and isolation against Iran, which included sanctions on banks, companies and importers, a ban on Iranian aviation, coordination with foreign countries and threats of sanctions against countries cooperating with Tehran.

Trump and his team believe the United States can achieve more by waiting and tightening the military naval blockade and economic sanctions.

His administration and Treasury Department officials estimate that the amount of Iranian oil available at sea will run out by the end of next week, which will increase Tehran's hardship and may push it to make further concessions.

The US president said earlier this week that he does not know "whether the Iranians will surrender now, but they will surrender".

On Sunday, 27 September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in comments to Fox News that the blockade on Iran was succeeding and that the remaining Iranian oil at sea amounted to no more than an additional 15 million barrels and expected the final shipments to reach China within the next two weeks, adding that "after that, it will have nothing left to bargain with".

Iran already acknowledges that the new sanctions are highly effective, although it has stressed that surrender is impossible.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in comments to Fox News on Sunday, on the sidelines of his attendance at United Nations meetings, "One of the problems we face is that our money is being held in China."

"We cannot even recover our money from countries to which we exported goods," he added.

No shipment of Iranian crude oil has passed outside the US-imposed blockade area since 14 July, according to data from tracking companies.

The figures cited by the US Treasury secretary also match shipping-tracking data.

Data from Kpler, according to what was published by The Wall Street Journal, showed that the amount of Iranian crude oil aboard tankers at sea outside the blockade area stood at 29 million barrels on 1 September, compared with 90 million barrels in mid-July.

It is expected the supply to run out by mid-October and the flow of payments to stop by mid-March next year.

President Trump argues that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to pre-war levels and has again called for Tehran's surrender.

However, Kpler data published by Reuters indicate that total volumes leaving through the strait amounted to about 9.7 million barrels out of a total of about 16.3 million barrels of oil exported by major Middle Eastern oil producers during September, compared with 19.5 million barrels in February.

The remaining volume is being transported through alternative routes.

Paulo von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute and professor of political science at Bay Atlantic University, told The New Arab that the reason for the notable change and tougher US position is that Washington has found a pressure point that is actually affecting Iran.

"As the blockade continues and its actual effects on the Iranian economy begin to emerge, Washington is no longer prepared to accept what it had previously agreed to," he said.

He further explained that the US realised that the economic blockade and sanctions were actually working, and that they were the strongest pressure tool, with Iran suffering the most, in turn led them to see any negotiations to lift the blockade in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as part of initial talks as "unacceptable at the present time".

Schirach added that months ago, Washington could have accepted a deal that would have reopened the strait to end the war and the impasse that had led to Iran controlling it.

He also noted that the factor of time is now in the US' favour, saying that "the current stalemate serves the pressure on Iran", and that the US blockade is working effectively despite Iranian claims that the domestic situation remains stable.

"The blockade prevents the movement of goods through Iranian ports and prevents Tehran from selling oil as usual, despite the existence of land routes and railways with China," he said.

He pointed to another variable, namely that Washington believes it has, to some extent, secured "the use of the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool".

"The United States has succeeded in escorting oil tankers through the strait so that traffic has become more than 75% of what it was before the war," he added.

Schirach also noted that "global markets have begun to adapt and no longer see the situation as an existential threat, unlike what Tehran had sought by using the strait as a tool to impose its conditions".

He estimated that the chances of reaching an agreement at the current time appear extremely slim, given the wide gap between the two sides' positions.

He pointed out that Washington's current goal is the complete halt of Iran's nuclear programme, while Tehran refuses to completely give up enriched uranium.

Iranian demands go far beyond what Washington can accept, such as the release of frozen assets and the closure of military bases, which he described as "ridiculous".

Although the Iranians have extensive experience in dealing with sanctions and pressure, they have not faced a crisis like the current one or such a large and highly complex and interconnected set of sanctions, according to the US researcher.

He argued that the continuation of the blockade for several more months could put the regime before a genuine survival crisis, and they may rely on land routes through the Caucasus, but this will not compensate for the losses.

Schirach also noted that the United States has "a lack of patience in dealing with long-term conflicts, especially as the current situation affects public opinion and citizens, which could save Tehran before its economy completely collapses".

President Trump shared on his platform on Monday an analysis written by Alexander Stahl, an investor and energy analyst, arguing that Iran had lost the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool and that oil levels had returned to pre-war levels.

However, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies who specialises in Iranian political economy and the effects of sanctions, wrote on X, pointing to several factors that go beyond the issue of control over the strait alone.

"Yes, Iran may no longer be able to disrupt the flow of energy as effectively as it did during the first phase of the war, but it still retains a significant ability to destroy assets (in the Middle East), including production, refining and distribution infrastructure," he said.

He added that saying Iran had lost control overlooks the fact that it can still escalate and target these facilities if it believes it needs to send a message that it can inflict damage that forces Trump to accept the diplomatic options on the table.

He cited the 2019 attacks on Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais.

He noted that Trump's unpredictable and volatile approach and his strong insistence on victory in the war could push Iran towards escalation.

He also said that the strait is not the main source of Iranian leverage in this war, but rather Iranian attacks on infrastructure, countries and US bases.

He added that this is being downplayed because acknowledging it would mean recognising the United States' inability to neutralise Iran's capabilities.

He warned that Iran could resort to a "scorched earth" policy if the current situation continues for a long period.

He said, "The US Navy can certainly escort ships at great cost and ensure the continued flow of oil, but the deeper problem remains unresolved, which is the failure of US security guarantees across the Gulf region, and this gives Iran leverage in negotiations."

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.