'Imminent US strikes' on Iran cause MENA flight chaos and high-alert at CENTCOM bases

International airlines are beginning to suspend flights to Iran as rhetoric from Washington raises fears of a possible direct attack by the US on the country.

Among some of the key regional players, Turkish Airlines has suspended all its flights to Tehran until Sunday. Qatar Airways, likewise, has cancelled its routes from Doha to the Iranian capital until Saturday, as well as Mashhad and Shiraz until further notice.

Passenger planes travelling with Emirates from Dubai will also face disruption on Friday and Saturday, although some services remain operational for the time being.

Meanwhile, Iraqi authorities have denied reports of flights suspended to and from Baghdad Airport, which often flies daily between the two capitals.

European international carries including Austrian Airlines, have also cancelled their flights until Sunday, with normal services expected to resume on Tuesday.

Despite the numerous suspensions, there has not been a significant reduction in flights overhead in Iran, with air tracking platform FlightRadar24 telling The New Arab that as of Wednesday, traffic both by domestic airlines and foreign aircraft passing through the sector remains as usual.

Given that the airspace over Iran remains open, FlightRadar24 continues, "it is up to the operator and its safety department to assess the risk of overflying a sector".

The airline disruptions come following a notice issued by the US virtual embassy in Iran advising its nationals in the country to travel via land to neighbouring Turkey or Armenia. Those unable to leave the country are told to "find a secure location [their] residence" and "have a supply of food, water, medications, and other essential items" at hand.

Rhetoric from US President Donald Trump escalated this week when he hinted at the possibility of intervening directly in what he said was "in support" of the ongoing economic protests in the country.

At least 2,500 people have been killed in the anti-government demonstrations so far, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, although The New Arab cannot independently verify the figure.

US personnel have reportedly been advised to leave Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base on Wednesday evening, according to three diplomats speaking to Reuters, although they describe the decision as a "posture change" rather than an outright order to evacuate. Al Udeid is the region’s largest US military air base, housing around 10,000 troops.

Qatar's International Media Office said reports about the departure of "certain personnel" from Al Udeid Air Base were "precautionary measures" taken in response to regional tensions, adding that any further developments would be communicated through official channels.

Reuters also quoted an Iranian official on Wednesday, warning its neighbouring countries hosting US forces that Tehran would target American bases in the event of a Washington-ordered attack on the country.

Analyst David Mumford at aviation risk security platform OPS Group has said that the main indicator for an imminent attack would be any new state-issued airspace warning, usually in the form of a Flight Information Region (FIR) NOTAM or earlier signs of notices for "temporary danger areas" and air defence activity.

During the 12-day war in June last year involving Israel and the US, full airspace closure only came after Israel launched its initial surprise attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, assassinating several of Tehran’s military and nuclear officials.

"It’s that short window", Mumford says, "that is the main risk".

Speaking to TNA, he adds that the main security concern airlines are taking into consideration now is the increased risk of misidentification of civil traffic due to Iranian air defence units being on heightened alert.

Iran has been known to use long-range, advanced anti-aircraft weapons at times of heightened armed conflict with the US, including in January 2020 when a Ukraine International Airlines flight was shot down shortly after taking off from Tehran Airport, killing all 176 people on board.

Iranian air defences had, at the time, been on heightened alert following the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a US airstrike in Baghdad.