How the next US-Israeli war on Iran could impact Gaza

The Gaza Strip, scarred by over two years of Israeli genocidal war and under a decades-long blockade, remains a place where everyday survival dominates life. 

The latest talk of a possible US-Israeli attack on Iran has reignited fears among the coastal enclave's residents that their fragile reality could worsen.

US President Donald Trump recently announced during a White House press briefing that he is "considering the possibility of a limited strike against Iran," adding, "It would be better for them to negotiate a fair agreement." 

The statement comes after stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with Iran refusing to meet US demands and a nuclear-armed Israel demanding to curb Iran's missile program and cut ties with armed groups in the Middle East region. 

For a Palestinian population already struggling under a siege that limits food, fuel, and medical care, the distant threats of a regional war feel immediate.

Between preoccupation and isolation

Speaking to The New Arab, Gaza-based political analysts believe that any escalation against Iran would further marginalise Gaza on the international stage.

"Regional and international attention is focused on larger conflicts, making the Palestinian issue less of a priority," Hussam Al-Dajani, a Gaza-based political analyst, told TNA. "This leaves reconstruction efforts stalled and makes any truce harder to achieve."

"Gaza is extremely vulnerable. Any regional tension is felt here immediately, and the population bears the consequences. The war on Iran does not just unfold hundreds of miles away; it reshapes the political and security landscape for us, without our ability to influence it," he said. 

He pointed out that the isolation is not merely political. The Strip's fragmented governance, constrained economy, and limited access to international support mean that external crises like a potential US-Israeli-Iran conflict exacerbate internal fragilities and the humanitarian crisis.

Even without direct fighting, Gaza's political environment is sensitive to regional shifts, according to Adel Yasin, another Gaza-based political analyst.

"The situation in Gaza is extremely delicate. Any tension in the region immediately affects internal security, complicates factional relations, and heightens the risk to civilians," he told TNA. 

"Israel and its allies could use regional preoccupation as an opportunity to tighten control. Meanwhile, international attention on Gaza diminishes because the focus shifts elsewhere. The Strip is left to manage its own challenges with little external support," he said. 

For Palestinian factions, these dynamics underscore a frustrating reality: their influence over regional decisions is minimal, and their ability to protect civilians is increasingly constrained, he believes. 

Humanitarian strains

The humanitarian repercussions of distant conflicts are tangible for Gaza residents. The Strip suffers chronic shortages of electricity, fuel, food, and medicine. Families must navigate long lines for basic goods, while children grow up amid constant anxiety over potential escalations.

Highlighting the psychological toll, Mustafa Ibrahib, a Gaza-based political analyst, told TNA that "chronic uncertainty increases depression and anxiety. Children live in fear, while adults feel helpless. Long-term planning is nearly impossible. Survival dominates daily life."

Ahmed Salah, 38, from Shati refugee camp, remarked to TNA, "I fear that the world will become absorbed in conflicts between Iran and the region, and the Gaza issue will be forgotten for months or even years." 

"We live under siege and aggression, and any other conflict diverts attention from our suffering. I don't want our cause to become just a minor news item," he added. 

For his part, Youssef al-Khatib, 45, from the Zeitoun neighbourhood, told TNA that "Iran supported some of its allies but left them to face Israel alone. This war shows us Palestinians cannot rely on anyone but ourselves. External support always comes second to larger interests."

However, Laila Hamad, 32, a mother of three from Deir al-Balah who is too consumed by survival to follow global news, told TNA that "I don't follow the news about Iran or the war. I am preoccupied with providing for my children."

"Every day is a struggle, and I have no time to think about conflicts I cannot influence," she said.