Growing signs that Cuba is next on Donald Trump's hit list for 'total control'

There are growing signs that Cuba could be the next target for US President Donald Trump for an invasion or regime change, after the swift US ouster of Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro and its intervention in the country's oil industry in January.

After months of the US building up its military in the Caribbean, Cuba has recently seen its fuel cut off by neighbouring US allies under pressure from the Trump administration. Some reports indicate that it's only a matter of days before Cuba runs out of fuel to power basic infrastructure, including air travel, hospitals, and day-to-day living.

The communist-led island has been under a US embargo since 1962, and its citizens live on average of less than $20 a month.

"I think Cuba was always on the list. I think Venezuela sent a clear message to other countries that might have drawn US ire," Anita R. Kellog, an assistant professor at the National Defence University in Washington, DC, tells The New Arab.

"It would be helpful to know the administration's goal and what they're trying to negotiate. Cuba has a weak hand play," she says.

On 29 January, months before the 2026 midterm elections, Trump issued an executive order titled "Addressing threats to the United States by the government of Cuba", in which the US president gave reasons for why he believed Cuba poses a threat to the US and announced a strict system of tariffs.

"The Government of Cuba has taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States. The regime aligns itself with—and provides support for—numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States," reads the statement, noting as problematic its relationships with Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Though Cuba has for the last six decades expressed support for the Palestinians, through statements and diplomatic meetings, it is still unusual for the US to describe Cuba as a serious threat, given Cuba's relatively modest military capabilities as compared with the US.

"The communist regime persecutes and tortures its political opponents; denies the Cuban people free speech and press; corruptly profits from their misery; and commits other human-rights violations," the statement continues.

"The Cuban regime continues to spread its communist ideas, policies, and practices around the Western Hemisphere, threatening the foreign policy of the United States," reads the statement, invoking 1960s-era fears of a communist takeover of the US due to left-leaning countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and their ties to anti-Western countries around the world.

The executive order goes on to announce tariffs and duties on countries that provide oil to Cuba, either directly or indirectly, and states that these decisions will be guided by the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a son of Cuban exiles and a longtime advocate of regime change in Cuba, could be instrumental in any action the US takes in Cuba.

Some countries that have complied have made it clear they do not agree with the US president's order.

"It is very unjust. You cannot strangle a people like this. They don't have fuel for hospitals, for schools," said Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a public statement, adding that Mexico was working diplomatically to resume the oil shipments.

In the US, Representatives Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have spoken out against Trump's actions on humanitarian grounds. Meanwhile, members of the anti-war group Code Pink have gone down to the Caribbean to deliver basic supplies by boat.

The president's move comes nine months before a US midterm, in which Trump, with historically low poll numbers—including in Florida—is expected to cause Republicans to lose seats. An attack on Cuba, with a high population of anti-communist Cuban exiles in South Florida, could potentially give Republicans a political boost.

"There are people putting pressure on Trump to do something similar, as in Venezuela. I think Trump knows he can do this, and there are no consequences. He would be celebrated by Cuban Americans, and in the midterms that would be pretty significant," Maria Isabel Puerto Riera, a Venezuelan American and a university professor based in Orlando, Florida, tells TNA.

There's also the looming issue of Trump's legacy, something that appears to be a growing concern for the ageing US president in his last term. He has spent his second term focusing on grandiose projects, such as taking over entire countries and putting his name on historic American institutions.

"Trump wants total control of the Western Hemisphere," says Puerto Riera. "He's now in his last term, and he understands that this is his last chance to leave a legacy."