After Khamenei's assassination, Palestinians in Gaza fear they will be unseen victims of Israel-US war on Iran

For Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the US-Israel war on Iran is not a distant political crisis. In a territory already shattered by two years of Israel's genocidal war, displacement, and economic collapse, every missile launched in the region raises the same question: will Gaza face even more violence, or could Israel reduce pressure on the Strip to avoid fighting on several fronts at once?

The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has added new uncertainty to an already fragile region.

In Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is among the worst in recent history, the assassination is seen not simply as a political event in Tehran, but as a development that could directly affect daily life in the besieged enclave.

Hamas quickly condemned the assassination, describing it as "a blatant aggression and a heinous crime against Iranian sovereignty".

The movement held Israel and the US responsible for the consequences and said Khamenei had long supported the Palestinian cause politically and militarily, despite international pressure on Tehran.

In its statement, Hamas said the killing was part of wider attempts by Israel to reshape the region to its advantage.

It called on Arab and Muslim countries, as well as the international community, to take firm steps to stop what it described as growing violations.

Islamic Jihad issued a similar statement, saying the Israeli-US strikes on Iran aimed to "redraw the region's map and eliminate the Palestinian cause".

The movement warned that the escalation threatened all countries in the region, not just Iran, and affirmed Tehran's right to defend itself.

In contrast, the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah adopted a more cautious and diplomatic position.

President Mahmoud Abbas called for an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers and an urgent session of the UN Security Council to discuss what he described as serious regional developments.

A presidential statement stressed the need to end violence and prioritise dialogue based on international law.

It also condemned Iranian attacks on several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iraq, describing them as violations of sovereignty and international law.

This position reflects Ramallah's concern that a wider regional war could further sideline the Palestinian issue or complicate any future political process.

These differing reactions once again highlight the political division between Gaza-based factions and the Ramallah leadership. While Hamas and Islamic Jihad see Iran as a key ally, the PA appears worried about being drawn into a broader regional confrontation.

What could this mean for Gaza?

Political analysts in Gaza say the impact of a full-scale war involving Iran would be serious for the Strip, though much depends on how events unfold.

Abdul Qader Hammad, a political science professor at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, believes the assassination represents a major shock to Iran's leadership and could lead to a harder political line, especially if the Revolutionary Guard gains more influence.

"This could have two possible effects on Gaza... Iran might increase its short-term support for Palestinian factions to show that the resistance axis remains strong," he told The New Arab. "Or it may reduce its external involvement temporarily if it becomes busy dealing with internal issues and direct military pressure."

Hammad warned that the most dangerous scenario would be if Gaza becoming a theatre for indirect messages between Iran and Israel. Limited escalations or small rounds of fighting could be used to signal strength, but civilians in Gaza would bear the cost, he said.

He added that any long-term weakening of Iran could affect Gaza's factions not only militarily, but also financially and politically, especially as they try to rebuild after months of war.

Gaza-based political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim agrees that the impact would likely be felt quickly. He believes Israel has two main options: either reduce or freeze operations in Gaza to avoid fighting on several fronts or increase military pressure to try to settle the situation in the Strip before the regional confrontation grows.

"The real fear is that Gaza becomes a space for indirect confrontation. Palestinians in Gaza could end up paying the price for a conflict they cannot influence," he told TNA.

He said that even if Iran's regional position weakens over time, that would not necessarily mean an immediate collapse of allied factions in Gaza.

Instead, he adds, it could lead to a difficult period of adjustment and repositioning.

Fear on the streets

For ordinary people in Gaza, the situation is viewed in simple and direct terms: will this escalation make their lives even harder?

In a crowded school shelter west of Gaza City, 45-year-old Mahmoud al-Attar, displaced from the north, told TNA that news from Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington is seen as a warning of what may come next.

"Any expansion of the war means more bloodshed," he said. "We are barely surviving under bombardment and siege. If the conflict spreads, Israel might try to end the Gaza front quickly and more forcefully or use us as a bargaining chip."

Aya, a 22-year-old university student, follows developments whenever internet access is available. She said discussions among her friends focus on two possibilities: that Israel might become busy with another front and reduce pressure on Gaza, or that it might intensify attacks to show strength.

"In the end, we are the weakest side. If Iran responds through its allies, we could become the battlefield. And if Israel expands its campaign against the resistance axis, we could also be at the centre," she told TNA.

Abu Mohammed, a father of five from Gaza City, fears that a large regional war would push Gaza out of international focus.

"When big countries fight, civilians here are forgotten. Aid could be delayed, ceasefire talks could stop, and everything might wait until the larger war ends," he told TNA.