Gaza anger gives Green Party the lead over Reform in Manchester by-election

The sun might be shining in Manchester today, a rare enough occurrence, but a part of this city is in the thick of a storm in UK politics as a pivotal by-election looms.

One of the people at the centre of this battle for the UK's future in Gorton and Denton is Hannah Spencer, a plumber and local government representative who is the Green Party candidate angling to fight off the right-wing populist Reform UK and take the seat from the incumbent Labour Party.

Labour has been bleeding support ever since it was elected to govern the UK in 2024.

Israel's actions in Gaza, described as a genocide by bodies including Amnesty International and the UN, are a particular point of criticism and anger, and the Labour Party's stance on the issue is evident in the Manchester suburbs.

"We've watched a genocide unfold before our eyes at the hands of the Israeli government, and we’ve watched a Labour government who still can’t call it a genocide," Spencer told The New Arab. "How can we expect those people to look after any of us when they won’t do the bare minimum and stick up for human beings?"

Many in the UK are viewing the by-election as a microcosm of national politics, and the result as a sign of things to come.

Thanks to recent boundary changes, Gorton and Denton is more akin to three constituencies stacked on top of each other rather than a single district. It straddles two local authorities in the City of Manchester and Tameside, and includes parts of the city's more affluent south, deprived areas, and a large Muslim population.

There is precedent of a pro-Gaza message pulling voters from Labour. Labour romped to a large majority in 2024, but lost seats to independent candidates running on pro-Gaza platforms. Even Labour's Health Secretary Wes Streeting edged into parliament with just a 528-vote majority over pro-Gaza independent Leanne Mohamad.

Labour has since shown little sign of changing its stance, despite overwhelming evidence that Israel's actions constitute genocide.

A particularly egregious moment was the Labour government's proscription of the group Palestine Action as a "terrorist organisation" after activists broke into RAF Brize Norton and sprayed graffiti on a plane.

This proscription was recently ruled "disproportionate and unlawful" by the UK High Court, but despite the ruling Labour has continued to dig its heels in with a plan to appeal.

Proscription places Palestine Action in the same category as Boko Haram and the Islamic State group, a moral equivalence as patently ridiculous as it is profoundly offensive and disrespectful to people whose lives have been destroyed by the aforementioned extremist groups.

"I think people are still understandably hurt and upset by the government’s lack of challenge to the Israeli government over the last few years, and that hurt is still really present," said Spencer. "Our Muslim communities have been directly affected by what’s happening. We're seeing that everywhere whether you're from a Muslim background or not. That feeling of injustice is something we know very well here."

Labour is still retaining some support in its Manchester stronghold. One constituent, Stephen, told The New Arab that he thinks the party has not had sufficient time to fix the considerable errors of the previous Conservative government.

"They've only had just over a year to try and turn around 13 years of decay and I think they are doing the right things and going in the right direction," he said.

A constituent who gave his name only as James said: "Labour will never have my vote ever again after their active involvement for the last two and a half years [in the Gaza war]. The Greens being the only ones that say they are in favour of an arms export ban to Israel is a really significant thing."

Fellow constituent Laura also slammed Labour, saying: "There are so many things that Labour have done that have bothered people of all stripes."

For 38-year-old musician Iain Pye as well, Labour have simply gone too far. "The Labour Party have put so many feet wrong in terms of issues that matter to me," he said. "In terms of trans issues and Gaza, they’re just not doing it - it’s time for something different instead of more of the same."

Goodwin, a former academic turned presenter on rightwing news channel GB News, has courted controversy over policies of taxing childless people and advocating for "Christian values" and "remigration". Reform UK did not respond to The New Arab's request to interview Matt Goodwin.

Both Labour and the Greens are seeking to position themselves as the main opponent to the populist right. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer visited the constituency on Monday to support Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia and largely framed the contest as a "straight fight between Labour and Reform", but polling suggests a more fragmented race, with the Greens performing strongly and Reform also in contention.

Starmer blocked Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as Labour's candidate amid speculation that Burnham was considering a future leadership challenge.

Burnham is a popular figure in Labour, and his absence from the ballot has prompted questions about whether Labour sidelined one of its strongest potential contenders in a seat that now looks increasingly vulnerable.

If Labour were to lose, no matter who to, the question of whether Burnham could have won will hang heavily in the air at 10 Downing Street.

But it's a big gamble for the Greens as well. If they lose to Reform, or worse still lose to Reform and Labour, this would massively undermine their claim of being the best party to oppose Reform.

Manchester has not escaped this new and virulent strain of right-wing populist, seen on the Saturday, just days before the by-election, when far-right group Britain First marched through the city centre, with fights breaking out with counterprotestors and police.

Green's hopeful Spencer had a clear message for those tempted to join the far-right: "I will say, to everybody that’s felt targeted by the far right and that maybe they're the ones that are talking to you - they don't have your interests at heart, they don't care about you."

"They’re just intent on turning us against each other, and they will use you to do that."

Whatever happens in Gorton and Denton this week will be a portent for the UK's political future at a time when that future looks increasingly uncertain.

The Labour Party did not respond to The New Arab’s requests for interview or comment.

Kit Roberts is a freelance journalist based in Manchester

You can follow them on Bluesky at kitrobertjourno.bsky.social and TikTok at @kitthejourno