Saada becomes focus of Yemen war as Houthis amass forces near Saudi border

Attention is turning to Saada province, the Houthi stronghold in northernmost Yemen, as the group steps up its military mobilisation and moves weapons and equipment to areas bordering Saudi Arabia.

These movements, confirmed by military and local sources to The New Arab, put the possibility a border confrontation, particularly as the group increases its threats against Saudi Arabia.

Saada has featured prominently in recent military statements by Majed Al-Nazili, spokesman for the armed forces affiliated with the internationally recognised government.

He included the Kataf and Al-Buqaa front and the Alab axis among the operations. These are important fronts because of their location along the Saudi border. Kataf and Al-Buqaa districts, the largest district in Saada by area, stretch along the Najran region and contain the Al-Buqaa border crossing. The Alab axis is located in Baqim district on the border north of Saada and is one of the advanced border fronts.

Meanwhile, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree referred to Saudi strikes on Saada, while government military sources said the group was preparing to seek a breakthrough across the border.

A government military source familiar with the situation told The New Arab that the Houthis "are preparing for a confrontation on the border" with Saudi Arabia and are heavily mobilising for it, adding: "A border war is coming; it is only a matter of time."

The source said the group is seeking to launch an attack that would allow it to make an incursion into Saudi territory.

The source's account corresponds with information from other military and local sources in Saada, who told TNA that the Houthis have stepped up the moving fighters, weapons and equipment to border areas in recent days.

According to the government source, these transfers go beyond reinforcing the group's defensive positions and amount to preparations for an offensive, at a time when its forces and positions are being targeted on several fronts.

In this context, posts on Al Masirah, the Houthi's affiliated channel, two days ago included reports of strikes on the districts of Sahar, Al-Safra, Al-Dhahir and Majz, alongside rocket fire on Sahar.

The channel had reported the previous day that two strikes hit Al-Dhahir and that four rockets targeted eastern Saada city.

These areas are spread between the border strip, the vicinity of Saada provincial centre and routes connecting to the border—Al-Dhahir lies on the Saudi border, Al-Safra extends north to the border with Najran, Sahar surrounds Saada city and includes its outskirts, and Majz is connected to the road leading to Baqim and the Alab border crossing.

This distribution gives the strikes significance beyond pressure on the front lines, extending to pressure on the group's positions deep inside the province and areas connecting them to the border, and could disrupt the movement of reinforcements and supplies.

Saada, as the focus

Al-Nazili announced for the first time since the start of the latest escalation that Saada fronts were included in the operations.

In a statement posted on his account on X on 27 September, he said the forces had carried out 756 targeting operations during the previous 72 hours, covering Kataf and Al-Buqaa and the Alab axis, alongside the fronts in Al-Jawf, Marib, Al-Bayda and Lahj and Taiz, using air forces, drones, snipers, field artillery and rocket launchers.

Al-Nazili reiterated in a statement on 28 September that Saada fronts were included in the operations, announcing 356 operations during the previous 24 hours, and also included the coast, Haradh and Al-Tuwal in neighbouring Hajjah, as well as other fronts.

He said the operations overall targeted Houthi reinforcements and military capabilities, destroying command and control centres, weapons depots, artillery and vehicles.

A military source in government forces in the border areas told TNA, in response to a question on 26 September, that the latest escalation had also included Saada.

However, operations there were less intense at the time than on the active fronts in Taiz, Marib, Hodeidah and Al-Jawf, the source said.

The source explained that the Yemeni air force launches occasional strikes against Houthi reinforcements and targets in Saada districts, alongside artillery, drone and rocket-launcher operations.

The succession of reports coming from Saada reflects the province's growing presence in the military scene.

Targeting reinforcements, depots and vehicles has gained additional importance in light of the mobilisation because it could disrupt Houthi preparations for a potential confrontation on the border, and pressures Saada's role in mobilising fighters and supplying the group's other fronts with fighters and equipment.

The current mobilisation recalls the experience of the border fronts after Operation Decisive Storm began on 26 March 2015, when the Saudi-led coalition intervened at the request of then-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

In May that year, Houthi shelling extended to Najran and Jizan, turning the border into a confrontation zone and forcing Saudi Arabia to deal with a direct threat to its border areas.

The Houthis and their allies announced incursions at the time into positions inside Saudi territory and released footage they claimed showed breaches they had carried out there.

That precedent shows how a border incursion can provide a propaganda gain and a tool for putting pressure on Riyadh, even if the group's ability to hold territory is limited by military standards.

The group is betting more on the political and security impact of an incursion than on maintaining long-term control.

Houthi rhetoric

The current mobilisation has coincided with an explicit escalation in the group's rhetoric, as Houthi media outlets have recently intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The presenter of an Al Masirah report on 27 September, whose political and mobilisation-focused rhetoric reflects the group's positions and the messages it seeks to convey, spoke of moving from "restraint to deterrence through attack".

The presenter threatened to put Riyadh into "a state of unprecedented all-out war" and hinted at options that "had remained ruled out but are now possible, painful and decisive", without specifying the nature of these options.

Since the start of the latest round of fighting on 10 September, the Houthis have justified their attacks by referring to what they describe as the "Saudi blockade", citing airports and ports and what they said were restrictions on movement.

They later added almost daily accusations against Saudi Arabia of launching strikes on Yemeni provinces and targeting civilians.

This sequence allows the group to present any expansion of the confrontation as a response to Riyadh.

The Al Masirah account on Telegram published more than 90 breaking news reports about Saada during the past month, most attributed to its correspondent in the province.

They included reports of civilian injuries, including five shoppers in the Al Thabet area of Qatabir on 24 September, according to the channel.

Saree continued to include Saada in his statements, announcing on 28 September that 38 airstrikes and rocket strikes had taken place in Saada, Taiz and Hajjah.

The following day, he reported 35 strikes on Saada, Taiz, Al-Jawf, Amran and Hodeidah, adding that the strikes had hit telecommunications networks, schools and other civilian sites.

He raised his cumulative figure to 1,158 missiles since the start of the escalation across various provinces.

While the Houthis attribute these strikes to Saudi Arabia, government forces attribute the announced operations to their own forces.

The military source in the border areas said in a statement on 26 September that the Houthis combine government forces' operations with limited artillery strikes carried out by Saudi border guards against smuggling operations, then attribute them all to the kingdom.

Military and local sources said artillery fire linked to smuggling routes is known to residents and that its frequency had not increased recently, according to their monitoring.

The motives behind Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia go beyond battlefield needs to the group's efforts to push Riyadh towards a direct agreement that would consolidate its position and limit support for the Yemeni government by raising the cost of confrontation for Saudi Arabia.

These calculations are specific to the group but overlap with Iranian interests in putting pressure on Riyadh and energy and trade routes in order to ease the pressure of the US war on Iran, according to observers.

While Yemeni army operations are putting pressure on Houthi positions and reinforcements in Saada, the mobilisation towards the border gives the group's threats a military dimension.

If these preparations turn into an attack on Saudi territory, according to the scenario anticipated by military sources, the group may be betting on an incursion that imposes a direct security and political cost on Riyadh and strengthens its ability to extract concessions from it, even if its ability to hold territory remains limited.

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.