Five years on, could Israeli aggression sink Abraham Accords?

Five years after they were signed on the White House lawn, the Abraham Accords face their most serious test.

What was once hailed in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Gulf capitals as a historic breakthrough in Arab-Israeli relations now looks fragile under the weight of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, its strikes across the region, and mounting Arab frustration - most recently over Israel’s unprecedented bombing of Doha and the emergency Arab-Islamic summit that followed.

Sidelining Palestinians

When the UAE and Bahrain normalised ties with Israel in September 2020, later joined by Morocco and Sudan, it broke with decades of regional consensus: that no Arab state would recognise Israel until a just solution for Palestinians was reached.

For Palestinians across the political spectrum, the move was seen as betrayal. President Mahmoud Abbas’s office called it "treason", while Hamas described it as "a stab in the back".

Analysts argue that this Trump-driven exclusion of Palestinians planted the seeds of a new wave of instability and Palestinian resentment.

A Carnegie report noted that the accords were designed to "bypass the Israeli–Palestinian conflict", effectively normalising occupation and denying any chance of Palestinian sovereignty.

Five years later, those unresolved grievances have exploded into the region’s political centre.

October 7 as a consequence

Hamas's 7 October 2023 assault on Israel, and the devastating war on Gaza that followed, were the inevitable backlash to accords that normalised relations with Israel while sidelining Palestinians. By bypassing their rights and sovereignty, the Abraham Accords deepened a sense of betrayal and completely overturned any notion of a peaceful solution. 

Governments in Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Rabat kept their ambassadors in Tel Aviv and maintained trade ties, but public anger surged. Israel’s far-right coalition intensified its rejection of a two-state solution, making it harder for Arab governments to defend normalisation.

Doha strike and Arab outrage

That sense deepened after Israel’s 9 September 2025 air raid on the Qatari capital, which killed five Hamas officials and a Qatari security officer. It was the first Israeli strike on a Gulf capital, and it shocked Arab leaders.

The attack triggered an emergency summit in Doha, drawing Arab and Muslim states to discuss how to respond. Elham Fakhro of Harvard Kennedy School told AFP the aim was "to demonstrate the unity of the Gulf Cooperation Council".

Karim Bitar, a political scientist in Paris, said it was "time to move beyond the usual recitations, verbal condemnations, and traditional mutual accusations".

Pressure on the US also rose. Gulf states, Fakhro noted, were expected to call on Washington to rein in Israel, accusing Israeli strikes of weakening ceasefire efforts.

Accord states under strain

The fallout is being felt most keenly in countries that signed the accords. The UAE barred Israeli defence companies from the Dubai Airshow over security concerns. Emirati officials also warned that Israel’s annexation plans in the West Bank could jeopardise bilateral relations.

Burcu Ozgülük of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told DW that Abu Dhabi and Manama are "under significant pressure to defend their status as signatories… regretful and frustrated that Israeli officials have put them in this awkward position".

Asher Friedman of Israel’s Misgav Institute, by contrast, points to economic dividends: trade, intelligence cooperation, smart agriculture, and even coordination over Gaza reconstruction. Trade between Israel and Bahrain soared by 843 percent in 2024 compared to the year before, while increases were also seen with the UAE, Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan.

Fragile gains, uncertain future

While there were some economic benefits, Abraham Accords now stand against a rising political cost. Since 2020, no new Arab state has joined the accords despite Donald Trump's efforts. Saudi normalisation, once described as the "crown jewel", looks more remote than ever.

Ozgülük argues that Israeli policy is to blame: "It is unimaginable [for Arab states] under the escalation of Israeli militarisation and the strangling of the two-state solution … the cost of joining the Abraham Accords has risen dramatically."

Five years after they were signed, the Abraham Accords remain in place, but their promise of regional transformation looks fragile. Israel's unprecedented aggression on Gaza, ruled as genocide by the UN, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and now Qatar, has placed unprecedented strain on them.

The question is not whether the accords will collapse overnight, but whether continued violence will steadily hollow them out, leaving behind paper agreements divorced from political reality.