A series of new offensives against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by the Sudanese army are expected to see wide-ranging consequences for civilians as the army attempts to capitalise on gains in North Kordofan made several weeks ago.
Military sources in the Sudanese army told The New Arab that the army has launched airstrikes against the RSF near the Sudanese-Libyan-Egyptian border, a key path linking the rebel group to outside support.
Fighting was also reported between the two warring sides in West Darfur, with the army killing RSF's Major General Madhi Adam Ismail as part of its efforts to repel an RSF offensive in the region.
The RSF is currently mobilising forces in the area to push out militias allied to the Sudanese Army.
It comes after Sudanese army gains in North Kordofan, when they captured a key road between the partially besieged city of El-Obeid and Omdurman, with Army Chief of Staff Yasser al-Atta claiming that the military would win the war by December.
The claim was met with scepticism by analysts, who noted to The New Arab that al-Atta has consistently underestimated the capabilities of the RSF, initially claiming the war would be over in two weeks when it broke out in April 2023.
Leena Badri, a Nonresident Fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP), told The New Arab that the army has in recent days attempted to cut off outside supplies to the RSF, saying that strikes and offensive action towards the Sudanese-Libyan-Egyptian border aimed at this.
She added that footage and images of Pakistani weapons in the hands of the Sudanese army, which follow from reports of an arms deal between Islamabad and Khartoum brokered by Saudi Arabia, indicate a feeling of confidence as they maintain international backing.
Widespread consequences expected for civilians
Badri noted several caveats to these advances, however, including the RSF's continued control over much of West and South Kordofan, and its ability to mobilise recruits and maintain external backing.
"The RSF's heavy use of drone warfare also means that their counterattacks will often be unpredictable, disruptive, and hard to stop," she added.
Badri also detailed several ways that civilians are likely to be affected by the new offensives, including the use of drones and airstrikes by the Sudanese Army, which are likely to cause civilian casualties. A strike on a traditional court in North Darfur on Sunday killed 35 civilians.
Likewise, strikes on critical infrastructure, such as water infrastructure, fuel depots, and markets, will also affect civilians, a key strategy that the RSF has also applied in its bid to pressure El-Obeid.
The Sudanese army "have also tightened restrictions on goods moving toward Kordofan and Darfur from Al-Dabba area, meaning that a lack of flow of goods -- which includes trading goods -- means that it will also increase scarcity in markets for civilians and perhaps also mean price shocks".
There is also a danger that, as the RSF continued to be pressured, that the group expands its mobilisation efforts, as is being reported in East Darfur.