Exit poll analysis cautions Reform UK gains but mega win for Labour

Exit poll analysis cautions Reform UK gains but mega win for Labour
Analysis of the exit poll suggests that Labour will win a comfortable government 'to do as it likes' but cautioned over Reform UK's apparent gains.
3 min read
04 July, 2024
Labour is set for landslide win in UK election, exit polls showed [Getty]

Labour is predicted to win a huge majority in the UK general election following the results of the exit poll on Thursday night, marking a major victory for the centre-left party which has been out of power for 14 years.

The poll, taken as members of the public across the UK exit polling stations, is a reliable prediction of the results which are expected to trickle in as votes are counted overnight Thursday.

Sir Keir Starmer's Labour is projected to win 410 seats, up from 209, and marking well over the 326 seats needed for a majority government.

The Conservatives would face a massive loss, gaining only 131 seats - a major drop from 365 seats in the last election.

Early analysis following the exit poll is suggested that Labour’s "landslide" majority will bring a comfortable governance for leader Sir Keir Starmer "to do what it likes".

Professor Tony Travers from the department of Government at London School of Economics (LSE) pointed out that the exit poll result – if transpires to be correct – would mean that Starmer has a lower share of the vote than previous leader Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017 general election.

This is believed to come down to Starmer’s popularity level being lower than Corbyn and the split vote in this election being picked up by minority parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

Speaking at a LSE election event, journalist and former political correspondent Elinor Goodman said in the wake of the exit poll projection that Labour’s majority could bring complexities in the new constituencies it is predicted to have taken from the Tories in regional areas in the UK.

Goodman said: "It is an amazing night for Labour party who was flat on its back five years ago."

"I think the overall result is partly the reflection… of the electorate taking its revenge on the Tories and partly the complete disaster the Tories have been over the last five years," Goodman said, adding that "it's a combination of things".

"Labour will have very comfortable majority to do what it likes but it is bound by its manifesto to a point."

Goodman also cautioned that the Reform UK projection of 13 – which far surpasses the poll predictions during the campaign of around 3 seats – should not be taken that seriously yet as the voting system of 'first past the post' does not favour smaller parties such as right-wing, anti-immigration Reform UK.

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Polling analyst Jeneieve Tradwell of LSE said that there are "unknowns" with smaller parties like Reform UK.

Tradwell said that the exit poll methodology does not typically respond to minority instances whereby people vote for personal or specific reasons, which could be the case for Reform leader and political firebrand Nigel Farage who is running in southeast England.

The results of the UK election are expected throughout the night on Thursday with the outcome expected to be known in the early morning of Friday when the new prime minister will meet with the King to be formally invited to take office.