Egypt claims to have felt the heat from the excess water amounts released from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the past few days, expressing fears for the ability of local water infrastructure to deal with Nile River revenues in the coming period.
Unusually high river levels have triggered localised flooding in northern Egypt, primarily in the Nile Delta region.
No fatalities have been reported so far, and the Aswan High Dam, a rock-fill structure across the Nile in Aswan in southern Egypt, has acted as a buffer. Still, farmlands and homes were flooded, reigniting longstanding diplomatic tensions over Nile water sharing, with the Ethiopian dam at the centre of these tensions.
The flooding coincides with the annual inundation season, but the Egyptian government has described it as "man-made".
It has forced precautionary water discharges from Lake Nasser, the 5,250-square-kilometre reservoir of the High Dam, which acted to prevent overflow.
Impacts from the flooding have so far been limited, compared to Sudan, where dozens of people were killed and thousands of others displaced.
However, Egypt's vulnerability is heightened due to informal settlements on floodplains and reliance on the Nile for 97% of its freshwater, specialists said.
"These informal settlements are prone to flooding whenever there is a rise in the water levels of the river," Abbas M. Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, told The New Arab.
"The government and the farmers inhabiting these plains know this fact very well," he added.
Mismanagement claims
This late-season surge, peaking beyond the typical July–September flood period, has been attributed by Egyptian authorities to "reckless" water releases from Ethiopia's newly inaugurated GERD on the Blue Nile, even as some local experts disputed this.
In a statement on 3 October, the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation accused Ethiopia of pursuing what it described as an "irresponsible unilateral behaviour" in the management of the GERD.
Describing the dam as a project implemented in "violation of international law", the ministry added that Ethiopia's management of the dam had caused floodplains in several Egyptian provinces to be submerged with water.
It also accused Ethiopia of violating long-established scientific and technical standards in dam operations by storing enormous quantities of water in its reservoir, without making the required regular water releases.
This, as stated, vindicated Ethiopia's inappropriate drive to complete the filling of the dam's reservoir.
Ethiopia rejected the Egyptian accusation by stating a day later that it did not cause any floods by opening the gates of its dam.
The GERD's regulated flows, it added, mitigated worse flooding, and the surge stems from natural heavy rains in the Ethiopian Highlands and contributions from the White Nile.
Some of Egypt's provinces have experienced unusual effects from the rise in water levels compared to past years.
Flooding has hit Beheira and Menoufia provinces in the Nile Delta hardest, with villages like Dalhamo (near Ashmoun in Menoufia) seeing waist-deep water.
Low-lying areas along canals in the Nile Delta—crisscrossed by silt deposits—are most vulnerable, as many homes and farms were built illegally on these flood-prone zones.
Residents in Ashmoun and nearby villages were urged to evacuate urgently, with some using boats to access homes or salvage belongings.
Children have been seen swimming to reach flooded houses, highlighting risks to families.
Egypt's Red Crescent has confirmed zero deaths to date, with teams on high alert in 15 vulnerable provinces. Nevertheless, wading through contaminated floodwaters raises concerns among specialists for waterborne diseases.
Schools and roads in affected areas faced closures, and some farmers abandoned their fields.
Social media videos showed partially submerged homes and residents navigating through the water to reach their homes.
Some local experts said, however, these developments were not a direct result of Ethiopia opening the gates of the GERD and discharging massive amounts of water, contradicting official claims in this regard.
"The additional amounts of water that have reached Egypt were stored in the reservoir of the Aswan Dam," Sharaki said.
"The rise in the river level was mainly caused by the discharge of larger-than-normal amounts of water from the Egyptian dam," he added.
He said that in April this year, the same floodplains were inundated with water, even though there was no discharge of additional water from the GERD.
Consequences ahead
The economic fallout from a traditional flooding in some of Egypt's Nile Delta provinces can be massive, depending on the scale of the flooding, given the importance of the Delta for the Egyptian economy, experts said.
Hundreds of acres of crops in the Delta have been inundated during the current wave, threatening yields in these areas.
Exact losses are pending complete assessments, but early estimates suggest considerable impacts on harvests in Menoufia, for example.
The Delta produces over 60% of Egypt's agricultural output. Delays could exacerbate food inflation amid the current water scarcity.
The High Dam discharges hundreds of millions of cubic meters of additional water every day to manage inflows, according to the government.
However, some local specialists downplayed the GERD element in the current inundation. They also ruled out the possibility of the current floods affecting Egypt's food security in any manner.
"I think the situation would have been far worse for Egypt and Sudan, but for GERD's presence," leading agricultural economics expert Gamal Seyam told TNA.
"The floodplains, which are usually submerged with water at the rise of river water levels every year, contribute nothing to Egypt's agricultural output," he added.
The Egyptian government anticipated the rise on 2 October, activating emergency protocols.
Actions in this regard included an hourly monitoring of water levels behind the Aswan Dam and increased dam discharges.
Escalation against GERD
The surge in Nile water levels coincides with escalating Egyptian opposition against the GERD, a project viewed by Cairo as posing an existential threat to its people.
The same surge has amplified Egypt's accusations of Ethiopia violating the 2015 Declaration of Principles by operating GERD unilaterally post its September 2025 inauguration.
Egypt claims that "abrupt" releases of enormous amounts of water from the dam caused the flood, endangering downstream lives.
Deep under those accusations is a new aspect of the dangers the Ethiopian dam poses to Egypt and Sudan, experts said.
While Egyptian opposition to the project in recent years focused on fears of the dam's impact on Egyptians during droughts, the floods demonstrate that the dam can have the opposite effect during an extended rainy season in the Ethiopian Highlands.
"Current developments have shown that Ethiopia can use the rainy season as a pressure card against Egypt," Seyam said.
"The discharge of enormous amounts of water from the GERD can cause devastation in Egypt, but this will put local water infrastructure under scrutiny," he added.
Most of the work Egypt did in recent years, in response to Ethiopia's construction of the dam, focused on implementing the necessary infrastructure to shield Egypt against dam-induced water scarcities.
This included the construction of multiple seawater desalination stations and others for the treatment of wastewater for reuse.
Whether Egypt has dedicated resources to implementing sufficient infrastructure to protect it against sudden surges in Nile water levels will be seen in the coming years.
Egypt has already sent a letter to the UN Security Council over what it calls "Ethiopia's unilateral operations" of the dam.
Cairo is also said to be considering other options to force Ethiopia to sign a contractual agreement on the operation of the dam.
Experts said this agreement is indispensable if Egypt is to be immune from the hazards that can be caused by the dam in cases of droughts or extended rainy seasons.
"A legally-binding agreement on the operation of the GERD is very important," Sharaki said.
"The presence of such an agreement will ensure full coordination between the two countries in ways that protect us against dangers," he added.