Undermining an 'Arab NATO'? Egypt is unhappy with the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact

The latest signing of a common defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has stirred up debate in Egypt about the reasons why the Saudis have preferred Pakistan for such a deal, not Egypt.

These debates acquire special relevance after the 16 September Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for the creation of a mechanism for the coordination of security and defence issues among Arab and Islamic nations.

"The Kingdom needs to offer a convincing justification for snubbing discussions about an Arab common defence agreement in the Doha summit," a man wrote on 18 September on Facebook.

"It also needs to mention why it turned down discussions on a unified Arab army, a proposal made by Egypt in 2015," he added.

"Why didn't the Saudis sign an agreement with Egypt?" another man asked. "Why don't they form a powerful Saudi army?"

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, formalised on 17 September during a state visit to Riyadh by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, commits Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to treat any aggression against one of them as an aggression against both of them, with the aim of enhancing joint deterrence and military cooperation.

The agreement builds on nearly eight decades of ties between the two countries, during which they offered support to each other on numerous occasions, including in the wake of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran when Pakistan deployed troops to Saudi Arabia.

This development occurs amid heightened regional tensions, including Israel's recent airstrikes on Hamas leaders in Doha on 9 September.

The Israeli airstrikes have infuriated Arab states and prompted calls for stronger collective security.

Egypt has been calling for the formation of a NATO-like force to defend Arab states against threats since 2015.

A resurgence of the same idea happened, following the Israeli strikes in Qatar, especially with the public opinion in Arab countries veering towards more self-reliance in defence and security issues as opposed to defence alliances and shared defence agreements with the US.

Strategic deterrence

Saudi Arabia appears to have signed the aforementioned agreement with Pakistan for logical reasons.

One of the world's nine nuclear-armed states, with an estimated 170 warheads and a proven delivery system, Pakistan qualifies as an attractive partner for Saudi Arabia, which seeks diversified security guarantees amid doubts about US reliability, observers said.

The pact could implicitly extend Pakistan's nuclear deterrence to Saudi Arabia, a non-nuclear state vulnerable to threats from Iran or other actors.

It is seen as a comprehensive defensive agreement that shifts the regional strategic calculus, especially post-Doha airstrikes.

Saudi Arabia is wary of over-reliance on Western allies, particularly the US, whose security commitments have been questioned amid the Israel's war on Gaza and Trump's record in the White House over the past eight months, the same observers said.

"Saudi Arabia is clearly working hard to variegate its defence and security partnerships and alliances," Egyptian political researcher, Ahmed Abdel Meguid, told The New Arab.

"The Saudis seem to have learned a lesson from the Israeli airstrikes in Qatar, which propels their pursuit for alliances with different partners," he added.

He and like-minded Egyptian experts view the latest Saudi-Pakistan pact as signalling a pivot towards non-Western partners.

As a non-Arab Muslim power with no direct stakes in Arab-Israeli dynamics, Pakistan, the same experts said, offers Saudi Arabia a low-risk partner to counter Iran, which is a shared concern for both countries, without entanglement in intra-Arab disputes.

More regionally focused

While Egypt and Saudi Arabia maintain close economic and military ties, Egypt's security role is more regionally focused through multilateral frameworks like the Arab League's Joint Defence and Economic Cooperation Treaty of 1050, to which Egypt and all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are signatories, and Egypt's push for an Arab NATO, analysts said.

While boasting the Arab world's largest conventional army and advanced US-supplied equipment, Egypt lacks nuclear weapons and relies on non-proliferation commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

A pact with Egypt would emphasise conventional forces rather than the high-level deterrence Saudi Arabia appears to prioritize.

Egypt's military strength is, meanwhile, already leveraged through existing alliances, reducing the need for a new bilateral commitment with the Saudis, the same analysts added.

"There is excellent military cooperation between Egypt and Saudi Arabia already at the present time," retired Egyptian army general, Hassan Rashid, told TNA.

"A formal common defence agreement between the two countries will surely be misinterpreted by some regional states," he added.

As a long-standing US ally (receiving $1.3 billion in annual military aid), Egypt is already integrated into Western security architectures, including NATO partnerships and joint exercises.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt collaborate via the GCC and anti-terrorism initiatives, but a formal mutual defence pact might complicate Egypt's delicate balancing act with Israel (post-1979 peace treaty) and the US, experts like Gen. Rashid said.

Meanwhile, Saudi-Egypt ties, while strong, have been strained by historical rivalries, such as the 1960s Yemen War where Egypt's forces opposed Saudi-backed royals.

Egypt's pan-Arab leadership ambitions sometimes also clash with Saudi's Gulf-centric focus. Egypt's Arab NATO proposal positions it as a multilateral leader, rather than a bilateral partner for Saudi-specific needs, analysts said.

Saudi Arabia may view Pakistan as a less politically complicated ally for direct defence commitments, they added.

Reshaping regional dynamics

The Saudi-Pakistan pact comes amid expectations that it can reshape Middle East dynamics, potentially drawing in other states like Turkey for a wider Islamic alliance.

However, the same pact may also raise concerns in India, a long-time nemesis of Pakistan, and Israel, which might view the pact as being directed against it.

A senior Saudi official said the pact is not a response to specific events, but a reflection of longstanding cooperation between the two states, potentially encompassing "all military means".

For Saudi Arabia, the pact bolsters deterrence without the concessions required in US talks, including for the Saudis to normalize relations with Israel.

Egypt remains, meanwhile, a vital economic partner and defence partner of Saudi Arabia, but the absence of a similar pact underscores Saudi Arabia's strategy of layering alliances: multilateral with Arabs like Egypt for regional issues, and bilateral with powers like Pakistan for existential threats, Egyptian experts said.

"Saudi Arabia's pursuit for layering defence and security alliances is manifested in this pact with Pakistan," Abdel Meguid said.

"The Saudis have, of course, the full right to follow this policy, especially with the changes happening at present in the region and around the world," he added.