Egypt, Sudan renew pressure ahead of Ethiopia's GERD inauguration

Ethiopia will officially inaugurate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on 9 September in a lavish ceremony, promoting it as a strategic national milestone.

In response, Egypt and Sudan are intensifying political and diplomatic efforts to highlight what they say is the illegality of unilaterally operating the dam without a binding agreement. Both downstream countries fear Ethiopia's move could further undermine their water security.

On Wednesday, Cairo hosted joint talks between the Egyptian and Sudanese foreign and water ministers. Egypt was represented by Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Water Minister Hani Sewilam, while Sudan was represented by Foreign Minister Omar Seddig and Water Minister Ismat Qurashi.

The meeting focused on adopting a common position on recent developments surrounding GERD and ways to confront Ethiopia’s unilateral measures.

Abbas Sharaky, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, stressed the importance of a unified front between Egypt and Sudan.

In comments to The New Arab's Arabic language edition, he noted that Sudan's shifting positions in earlier stages had given Addis Ababa opportunities to stall negotiations.

"The situation has now changed after the rapprochement of the Egyptian and Sudanese positions, which strengthens their ability to exert diplomatic and political pressure," Sharaky said.

He argued that GERD has moved beyond being a purely technical project for water storage and electricity generation. For Sudan, he said, it now represents "a military tool" in Ethiopia's hands that could be used in any future conflict. He warned of direct risks to Sudan's Roseires Dam, whose operation is closely linked to GERD.

Egypt announced in December 2023 that negotiations had collapsed after more than 13 years of talks failed to produce a binding agreement.

Sharaky predicted that Egypt and Sudan may submit a joint objection to the UN Security Council coinciding with the inauguration, citing violations of international conventions governing transboundary rivers and the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum.

Despite the impasse, Sharaky argued that a written agreement was still possible. He explained that the most contentious issue - the years of reservoir filling - has already been resolved with Ethiopia's completion of the process.

Egypt, he said, can use its relationships with major powers to pressure Addis Ababa, while Ethiopia's need for auxiliary dams to ensure GERD's efficiency offers another point of leverage requiring cooperation with Cairo and Khartoum.

Regional security expert Maj. Gen. Mohamed Abdel Wahed also did not rule out military options if Ethiopia deliberately harms Egyptian interests.

"There are many means of security and military action against the dam if it poses an existential threat to Egypt," he said, rejecting the claim that military action is no longer possible after construction was completed.

He noted that Egypt had already suffered significant damage during previous filling stages but managed to adapt, albeit at high cost. Still, he warned that international and regional dynamics could limit military scenarios, making other forms of pressure essential.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed struck an upbeat tone at the dam site, describing GERD as a "strategic transformation" that redefines Ethiopia's role in the regional balance of power.

"Centuries of geopolitical stagnation have ended, and a new era of development and national sovereignty has begun," he said.

Responding to criticism, Abiy insisted that Ethiopia's use of a limited share of Nile waters was "not a crime nor an attack on the rights of others". He said water continues to flow through turbines and spillways to ensure supply to Egypt and Sudan.

He reiterated Ethiopia’s readiness to work with both downstream states, claiming that GERD was a joint project that prevents floods, guarantees year-round flows, strengthens economic interdependence between upstream and downstream countries, and contributes to regional development and stability.

In an interview with Ethiopian state television from the dam site, Abiy said earlier tensions had stemmed from fears about possible impacts.

With the project now complete "without harm", he argued, there was a new foundation for cooperation.

He described GERD as the fulfilment of a dream pursued by Ethiopians for more than a thousand years, calling the Nile "the river of challenges" and presenting the dam as the greatest test in modern Ethiopian history - one overcome despite external pressure, internal crises, and attempts to block construction.