Egypt praises Donald Trump's offer to solve Ethiopia Nile row, fears quid pro quo

Egyptian observers have welcomed remarks made by US President Donald Trump about his desire to broker a negotiated settlement of the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's construction of a massive dam on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, Egypt's principal source of freshwater.

Speaking during a meeting at the White House with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday, the US president emphasised the importance of the Nile River's water for Egypt.

"I think if I am Egypt, I want to have water in the Nile, and we are working on that," President Trump said.

He lashed out at the Ethiopian dam, noting that it closes off water to the Nile, even referring to Egypt's dependence on the river for over 97 percent of its water needs.

The US president also pledged to work to find a negotiated solution to the row over the dam between Cairo and Addis Ababa.

This was the second time the US president had referred to the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute over the dam, officially known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in a month.

In late June, he revealed that previous administrations had financed the Ethiopian dam project, criticising it for blocking the flow of the Nile River's waters to Egypt.

The GERD has been at the centre of disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia since the Horn of Africa country started constructing it in 2011.

Egypt has been hoping to sign a legally binding deal with Ethiopia over the initial construction of the dam, as well as its subsequent filling and operation.

Nevertheless, 12 years of negotiations between the two sides, along with Sudan, another Nile River riparian state, yielded no results, which led Egypt to accuse Ethiopia of acting unilaterally and violating the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the dam, overlooking Egyptian concerns.

Dam negotiations stalled

Egypt walked out of dam negotiations in December 2023, declaring the talks a failure, and accusing the Ethiopians of wasting time until the dam is a fact on the ground.

However, debates on the dam resurfaced in the past few weeks, particularly after President Trump's June remarks about the Ethiopian project.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has stated twice in the past two weeks that his country would have to defend itself if the dam poses a threat to its interests.

On another occasion, the Egyptian foreign minister stated that the dam threatened his country's existence, echoing similar remarks by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi over the past few years.

Egyptian Irrigation Minister Hani Sweillam reiterated the same remarks, claiming that Ethiopia's construction of the dam "violated international law".

Nonetheless, the remarks of the US president are reviving hope for a settlement to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the same issue.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed President Trump's remarks.

He wrote on Twitter on Tuesday that the remarks of the US president reflected what he described as "seriousness" on the part of his country to deal with the Ethiopian dam issue.

"Egypt also reaffirms its confidence in President Trump's ability to address complex challenges and 

advance peace, stability and security across the globe," the Egyptian president wrote.

In Cairo, analysts said the remarks of the US president sent a new ray of hope about the prospect of settling the Ethiopian dam issue peacefully.

"President Trump follows a correct path by pledging to work to help Egypt and Ethiopia settle the dam dispute and protect Egypt's rights to the water of the Nile River," leading water and irrigation expert Nour Abdelmonem told The New Arab.

Nevertheless, he raised questions about what the US president can do now that the dam is a fact on the ground.

Deep impact

President Trump attempted to facilitate a contractual settlement among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia regarding the dam in 2020, a few months before the end of his first term in office.

A deal was drafted and was about to be signed by the three states. Suddenly, the members of the Ethiopian delegation made themselves scarce, even as Ethiopia accused Egypt of hampering a deal at the time.

A short time later, President Trump alluded to the possibility of Egypt blowing up the dam.

When talking about the devastating effects of the Ethiopian dam on Egypt, Egyptian officials are not exaggerating.

The dam significantly reduces the amount of water flowing to Egypt from the Nile, exacerbating the populous country's water poverty.

With an annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres of water from the river, Egypt suffers a gap between available amounts of water and actual needs, estimated at 7 billion cubic metres by the UN and a far larger amount by the Egyptian government.

To bridge this gap, Egypt has to recycle a sizeable amount of agricultural wastewater.

Over the past decade, Egypt has invested close to half a trillion Egyptian pounds (amounting to around $10 billion) in constructing a series of water treatment and seawater desalination plants that recycle and treat tens of thousands of cubic metres of water daily for agricultural and human use.

"The dam will also cause more serious harms to Egypt, especially during extended droughts," Abdelmonem said.

But at what cost?

President Trump's remarks come hard on the heels of a declaration earlier this month by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that his country had already completed the construction of the GERD.

Addressing his country's parliament, the Ethiopian premier said the dam would not cause harm to Egypt.

He even invited Egyptian and Sudanese officials to participate in the official opening of the dam in September of this year, which only provoked Egypt's ire further.

President Trump stepping in at the moment is seen in Egypt as a positive move regarding a dispute that is becoming increasingly intense, especially with some Egyptians starting to raise questions about what their country can do to prevent the dam from causing economic devastation.

Interference by the US president, however, raises questions about what he might demand from Egypt in return, particularly given the bumpy course of relations between Cairo and Washington over the past six months, since Trump returned to the White House.

The two capitals have been at loggerheads over several regional issues, including President Trump's desire to take over the Gaza Strip and build it into a "Middle East Riviera".

Egypt, which has rejected the US president's request that it take in Gaza refugees, also turned down the nation of Trump's takeover of the Palestinian territory and even put on the table an alternative plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, without the displacement of its people.

Questions are brewing in Cairo about the type of remuneration the US president might demand from Egypt for helping it settle the dispute over Ethiopia's Nile River dam.

"Trump does not help anybody for free, the sale of arms to his European allies, so that they can give them to Ukraine, being a case in point," Ambassador Moataz Ahmadin, Egypt's former envoy to the United Nations, told TNA.

"This man has proven a failure so far in Ukraine and in Gaza. How can he then succeed in settling the dispute over the Ethiopian dam?" he asked.