As Egypt condemns Israeli attacks on Syria, it is still wary about authorities in Damascus

Egypt has strongly condemned Israel's persistent attacks against Syria, warning against any attempt to undermine its security.

"There is also an urgent need for respecting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said at a meeting with his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani in Qatar on 7 December, on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, a leading global platform for dialogue and diplomacy.

The Egyptian foreign minister noted that his country is in contact with various regional and international players to ensure that Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity are not violated.

He called for ensuring Syrian state institutions remain intact to preserve Syria's stability and protect the rights of its people.

This was the fifth meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers since December last year, and their second since 27 September, when they conferred on the margins of the United Nations Security Council meetings in New York.

No love lost

Relations between Cairo and Damascus have been strained since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime last December.

Egypt did not welcome the new authority in the Arab country, initially describing it as a "status quo", and then bringing up the rear; moreover, Egyptian authorities had supported the Assad regime in Syria and attempted to rehabilitate it. At the same time, other Arab states hastened to establish diplomatic and economic relations with this new authority.

The meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers came almost half a month after a high-level Syrian military delegation attended a training conference for the chiefs of staff of Arab armies in Cairo.

Nevertheless, the meeting of the two countries' top diplomats is less about a thaw in relations and more about Egypt reaffirming its foreign policy principles in dealing with regional states, including those with which it has reservations, analysts in Cairo said.

"Egypt is keen to reaffirm its foreign policy line on all occasions, whether it is in the case of Syria or any other country," Ahmed Youssef, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told The New Arab.

"Such a meeting had nothing to do with any improvement in bilateral relations," he added.

The same policy line can be seen in Egypt's relations with other regional states, including Lebanon, Sudan and Libya, where it has been lobbying for the protection of state institutions, including national armies, and against non-state actors, including militias vying for control in these states.

Cairo and Damascus seem to share the same antipathy towards each other.

When new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa arrived in Cairo in March this year for an emergency Arab summit on Gaza, he was given a frosty welcome by his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Six months later, the two leaders were in the same room at an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, which was held in the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes in the Qatari capital.

Sisi met a host of Arab and Muslim leaders, but not including al-Sharaa.

The new Syrian president also seems to share the same dislike of Egypt.

Sharaa expressed a lack of infatuation with Egypt's economic development model several times in the past months, once reportedly referring to Egypt's mounting debt and another time saying that Egypt was not as successful as the Gulf states and Turkey.

"The chasm between Damascus and Cairo is wider today than ever," Syrian political analyst Tayseer al-Najjar told TNA. "The new Syrian president appears to share the same antipathy towards Egypt, and this is totally manifest every time he talks about it."

He noted that relations between Egypt and Syria have not made any progress, a full year after the thunderous change in Syria.

This bad blood seems to be seeping out of official circles in the two countries and into the public sphere.

There is now what can be described as a "social media war" between people on both sides, with some Egyptians calling for kicking Syrian refugees out of Egypt and some Syrians calling for boycotting Egyptian products.

Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have flocked to Egypt since the start of the Syrian uprising and civil war in 2011, where they live, not in refugee camps or in shelters, but within Egyptian cities, sharing everything with Egyptians, from its creaky transport to its underfunded hospitals and schools.

Trade relations between Egypt and Syria have reportedly improved following the fall of the Assad regime, especially after the removal of most Western sanctions on Syria.

Information about the current volume of trade is not available. Nonetheless, in 2023, trade between the two countries amounted to $333 million.

Fear of change

As fireworks illuminate the skies of Damascus, with the Syrians marking one year since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, their country will apparently face serious challenges in navigating the region's tough political, security and economic landscape, where some countries play a waiting game to see how the new government will handle different issues.

Egypt appears to be one of these states. In Cairo, analysts view the latest meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers as reflecting Egypt's pragmatism in the face of the new government in Damascus, even as it does not embrace it.

The same analysts cite a series of challenges that stand in the way of improved relations between the two countries in the coming period, including ideological conflicts.

In having a jihadist background, al-Sharaa represents the very ideology Egypt has been fighting locally, regionally and internationally for almost a decade now, analysts said.

"In dealing with the new Syrian president, Egypt does not overlook his ideological background," independent international relations expert Abdel Monem Halawa said to TNA.

"He has moved from al-Qaeda to ISIS and then became the president of Syria," he added.

Halawa noted that al-Sharaa's ideological journey speaks volumes about the ideas that caused rifts and the fragmentation of some regional states, hence Egyptian caution in dealing with him.

Egypt is also apparently apprehensive of the Syrian model being replicated in other Arab countries, especially in it. A sizeable number of those who fought in Syria, within the ranks of the different terrorist groups operating in it, also hail from Egypt.

The fear in Cairo is that, hardened by years of fighting, these people would return home one day and pose threats to Egyptian security.

Meanwhile, Cairo also had problems with the initial failure of the new authorities in Syria to contain frictions between the elements, making the Syrian social fabric and allaying the fears of minorities.

This was why it repeatedly called for an inclusive process in Syria that allows for the participation of all segments of the Syrian society.

On 8 December, al-Sharaa said his country's relations with Egypt were barely acceptable, expressing hope that they would improve in the future.

However, whether these relations will improve, analysts say, depends on the Syrian government's conduct.

"Egypt keeps assessing the actions of the new government in Syria on different issues," Halawa said. "These actions will decide whether the two countries will move beyond the current freeze."