Is Donald Trump's plan for post-war Gaza a victory for Egypt?

Egypt has publicly welcomed US President Donald Trump's 2o-point plan to end the war in Gaza and establish post-war governance in it.

The plan was initially discussed by President Trump and a host of Arab and Muslim leaders during a meeting in New York on 23 September, and then approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 29 September.

For his part, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared support for the plan on 29 September during a meeting with his Emirati counterpart Mohamed bin Zayed in Cairo, describing it as a "step towards permanent and comprehensive peace" in the region.

Sisi issued a statement on five days earlier, where he appreciated the efforts of the US president to stop the war and his pursuit of peace.

He added that President Trump's plan as an "important foundation", upon which regional peace could be built in the coming period.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty echoed the same support at the UN, citing Cairo's full commitment to building on the vision of the American president to restore stability in the region.

In a way, Egyptian approval of the new plan marks a pragmatic shift from Cairo's earlier opposition to President Trump's more controversial February 2025 proposal for US administrative takeover of Gaza and potential Palestinian displacement, analysts said.

After rejecting the same plan, Egypt called it "ethnic cleansing" and an "act of injustice".

This new plan, however, seems to be a win for Cairo, fulfilling a number of strategic and ideological objectives and driving away national threats posed by Israel's war on Gaza, analysts said.

"The plan goes hand in hand with many of the objectives Egypt tried to achieve in the past period," retired diplomat Rakha Ahmed, who is a member of local think tank Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, told The New Arab. "Nonetheless, it continues to raise questions, especially in the absence of sufficient information about how it will be implemented."

Immediate end to war

The world now awaits Hamas' approval of the plan. If the Palestinian group agrees to it, President Trump's plan will bring about an immediate ceasefire and the release of Israeli captives held by Hamas' and other Palestinian armed factions.

According to the plan, this will then herald a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the institution of a post-war governance system that does not include either Hamas or Israel.

The post-war governance system is expected to become the centre of debate in the coming period, especially if it will put in place a peace council that will be headed by President Trump and former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, as the US president said at his press briefing with Netanyahu at the White House on 29 September.

Some Egyptian analysts view such a council as a recipe for trouble, not stability in Gaza, particularly in the light of expected pushback against it by the Palestinians who will surely consider it a form of colonialism over Gaza.

Nevertheless, the absence of both Hamas and Israel from Gaza's rule after the war solves major strategic and ideological riddles for Egypt, analysts said.

Egypt has problems with Hamas which it considers an ideological offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the almost century-old educational, charity organization that ruled Egypt in 2012 after the Arab country's first free elections, but then became the target of an army coup led by Sisi a year later.

Moreover, Cairo has for long considered Hamas an impediment to Palestinian unity, which is a prerequisite for Palestinian statehood. At the same time, an Israeli occupation of Gaza will deal a deadly blow to this statehood dream.

This is particularly so with Israel's unrelenting settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and its planned annexation of all of it, analysts argue.

"The plan is said to pave the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state, but there is a dearth of details on this particular issue," Ahmed said. "The Palestinian state issue is a landmine, especially with President Trump conceding that Netanyahu opposes it."

The statehood dream was rekindled in the past weeks by multiple international recognitions, including by some of the staunchest allies of Israel and the US.

President Trump's pledge that he would not allow Israel to annex the occupied West Bank has further rekindled this dream and thrown the ball in the Palestinians' court, analysts say.

Making Gaza liveable

An Israeli withdrawal from Gaza after a ceasefire is reached will open the door for the reconstruction of the Palestinian territory.

The end of Hamas' rule in Gaza and the movement's laying down of its arms will also incentivise the international community to finance this reconstruction.

Egypt has already formulated a plan for Gaza's rebuilding, one that has been endorsed by Arab and Islamic nations in March this year.

The $53-billion plan will reconstruct the Palestinian territory, most of which has already been intentionally decimated by the Israeli army, in a phased manner, ensure the delivery of basic needs for Gaza's close to 2 million people, and also offer them temporary shelters.

The Gaza reconstruction plan was Egypt's answer to President Trump's plan to take over Gaza and build it into a "Middle East Riviera", which he unveiled in February this year, for the first time.

It stresses on reconstructing Gaza without the displacement of its people, an issue that was extremely concerning for Cairo, especially in the light of demands by the US president for Egypt to take in Gaza refugees.

This is why Egypt considers President Trump's new plan for Gaza, particularly in calling for reconstructing the Palestinian territory for the benefit of its people, a strategic win and a far cry from his earlier plan to take over Gaza, analysts said.

"The plan promises to reconstruct Gaza, without displacing its people, even as it aims to serve Israel at the end of the day by giving it the image of an absolute victor in this war," international relations expert Ahmed Abdel Meguid remarked to TNA.

However, the Gaza reconstruction plan does not expect to have a smooth ride towards implementation, given the difficulties that will face its funding.

Some Arab politicians are out already to cast doubts on the readiness of some Arab states to finance Gaza's reconstruction, with one former senior Arab official saying the rebuilding of the Palestinian territory should be Israel's responsibility.

Displacement fears

The reconstruction of Gaza for the benefit of its people allays Egyptian fears from the displacement of this people.

These fears were raised by President Trump's "Middle East Riviera" plan, his call for Egypt to accept Gaza refugees and Israel's intention to resettle the coastal enclave.

They prompted a wide range of military and security measures in Sinai, the Egyptian territory near both Gaza and Israel.

These measures have so far included the deployment of around 40,000 troops on the Egyptian side of the border, which is seen by Israel as a violation of the security protocols of the 1979 peace treaty, which prevent both Egypt and Israel from massing troops on both sides of their borders.

The same deployments, which also included a modern Chinese air defence system, have raised Israeli concerns and instigated Israeli calls for US pressure on Egypt to reverse them.

Egypt countered by saying that the same security measures are defensive and only aim at preventing the infiltration of extremists from Gaza, amid the humanitarian crisis and war in the Palestinian territory.

The Egypt-Israel peace has been fraying under the displacement prospect, particularly with the Egyptian president describing this displacement scenario as a "redline" for his country.

In March this year, Sisi alluded to threats to his country's peace with Israel due to Israel's plan to force Gaza's population into Sinai.

In October 2023, he said the relocation of Gaza's population to Sinai would open the door for Palestinian attacks against Israel from the Egyptian territory, something that might spark Israeli retaliation.

"This will make the peace, we preserved for long, evaporate," the Egyptian president warned at a joint press briefing with then-German chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Uphill battle

Sisi's affirmation that President Trump's plan could function as an "important foundation" for the achievement of peace in the region may hide behind it some Egyptian concerns over the plan, analysts in Cairo said.

These concerns particularly rest on the lack of specific details in the plan about the role of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in post-war Gaza, or when it will be allowed to take over administrative control of it after Hamas is gone.

For Egypt, PA control of Gaza is an important step on the road to the administrative unity necessary for Palestinian statehood.

The plan will sound Hamas' death knell, especially if the group agrees to disarm, allows its leaders to leave Gaza and accepts to not be part of Gaza's future rule.

The Palestinian group will then have to reinvent itself into a political party with programmes that address the Palestinians' needs in the new political and geographical context President Trump's plan will create.

Nevertheless, its departure from Gaza's rule will raise questions about the time the PA will be allowed to take over the coastal enclave.

President Trump's plan makes this takeover conditional on the PA initiating sweeping reforms.

The same issue will likely be raised by Egypt and other Arab states in the coming period, analysts said.

Egypt has reportedly trained thousands of Palestinian security personnel in preserving security in Gaza after the war.

"Egypt will surely press for PA control of Gaza soon, because this will be the only way for administrative unity in the Palestinian territories," Abdel Meguid said.