Do the Trump-Hamas talks signal that a peace deal is possible?

The anticipated release of Israeli-American soldier Edan Alexander by Hamas on Monday following direct negotiations with the Trump administration has opened the door to speculation that it could be the first step toward a broader peace deal in Gaza.

While the move has been widely described as a humanitarian breakthrough, stark divisions remain. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that no ceasefire will follow, and many observers see the event as emblematic of a growing rift between Washington and Tel Aviv.

The New Arab looks at whether US-Hamas talks and the release of Alexander could lead to a wider peace deal.

A gesture toward a ceasefire?

Hamas has framed the release of Alexander as a response to regional and international mediation efforts, particularly those led by Qatar, Egypt, and, most recently, the US.

"We hope this step will serve as a genuine entry point for comprehensive negotiations that lead to a complete ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation from the Strip, the start of reconstruction, and the conclusion of a fair prisoner exchange deal," Jihad Taha, a spokesperson for Hamas, told The New Arab's Arabic language outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.

Hamas's official statement also expressed its readiness for "intensive negotiations and serious efforts to reach a final agreement to end the war, exchange prisoners, and enable an independent professional administration to govern Gaza for the sake of long-term calm and stability". 

While the group emphasised this release was unilateral and not part of a larger deal, the language signalled a potential openness to a broader diplomatic resolution.

Netanyahu rejects ceasefire

Despite the planned release, Netanyahu remains adamant that Israel will not offer concessions. In a statement issued by his office, the Israeli leader said, "Israel has not agreed to any ceasefire or prisoner release-only to a safe corridor allowing Edan to be freed."

The statement credited the release to "the firm policy we have led with the support of President Trump, and the military pressure exerted by IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip".

Netanyahu said Israel was continuing to prepare for its expanded combat operations in Gaza, known as Operation Gideon's Chariots.

Trump's diplomatic moment

President Donald Trump hailed Hamas's announcement as a diplomatic success. Posting on Truth Social, he described the release of Alexander as "a goodwill gesture toward the United States and the mediation efforts of Qatar and Egypt to end the brutal war and return all living hostages and the remains of those who died to their loved ones".

"I am pleased to announce that Edan Alexander is returning to his family. Thank you to everyone who helped make this historic moment possible," he wrote, adding that he hoped this would be the first step toward ending "a brutal conflict".

Notably, US officials have confirmed that Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, may personally escort Alexander, along with members of his family, to Qatar following the release. There, they may meet with Trump directly during his upcoming visit to the region.

That decision is deeply symbolic. Rather than returning Alexander directly to Israel, routing him through Doha - the diplomatic hub of US-Hamas mediation - reinforces the centrality of Qatar in ceasefire efforts and positions the Trump administration as a key interlocutor in shaping any future deal. It also subtly reinforces Washington’s leadership, bypassing traditional Israeli channels.

Unease in Israel

Israeli officials have responded cautiously to the US-brokered deal.

According to Israeli media outlet Channel 11, Israel was only informed after the deal was well underway. One unnamed senior official said, "We are prepared to receive Edan Alexander from morning until night ... But we don’t yet have a precise time or location."

The official confirmed that Alexander would be handed over via Red Cross mediation and brought through a secure corridor into Israeli territory, where he would undergo medical checks and reunite with family at the Re'im military base.

"We view his release as a prelude or gateway to the possibility of starting negotiations around the Witkoff plan," the official said. "Once he’s freed unconditionally, it will become a foundation for future dialogue. An Israeli delegation could depart at any moment to any required location."

Still, anxiety lingers. Haaretz reported that Netanyahu recently told members of the Knesset he wanted Israel to begin "weaning itself off" US military aid, seen by many as a signal of growing discomfort with the potential of  Washington to pressure Netanyahu into a peace deal that he, and his far-right governing coalition, do not want.