An unreleased internal autopsy of the Democratic Party's failed 2024 presidential campaign by then-Vice President Kamala Harris could shed light on a Gaza policy that likely had an important impact on the election.
Those on the left are generally welcoming the Democratic National Committee's willingness to study this failure. However, there is concern that keeping it under wraps could prevent the party from learning from past mistakes.
"We are grateful to the DNC for providing a space for us to share with them the data we had collected about what went wrong for Democrats in the last presidential election, particularly the harm caused by President Biden's support for Israel's genocide in Gaza," Hamid Bendaas, communications director with the Washington-based Institute for Middle East Understanding’s Policy Project, told The New Arab.
He emphasised that in the July 2025 meeting, the DNC shared that their own data found their Gaza policy was, in their words, a 'net-negative' in the 2024 election.
"In the meeting, we were very impressed by the questions they asked to understand voter behaviour and what went wrong. They seemed to take it seriously," he said, crediting the DNC's new chair, Ken Martin, with his willingness to engage with pro-Palestinian voices.
"We sincerely hope they are sharing this information with other party committees and allies, and recommending the major changes that need to be made to rectify it, ahead of the critical midterm election," Bendaas said.
Reports that Gaza likely played an important role in the Democrats' 2024 loss come as the party prepares for the 2026 midterm elections, with both wings continuing to argue over which direction the party should take.
It follows the 2024 Uncommitted Movement by pro-Palestinian activists, who urged the Democratic Party to shift away from unconditional support for Israel, with many fearing that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump would be a much worse option. He had already suggested by that point that he would want to depopulate Gaza and turn it into a resort, something that appears to be in the works two years later.
Progressives, including advocates for Palestinian human rights, argue that the party should go back to its working-class roots. Those in the party establishment tend to believe that they should veer to the right to capture centrist independent voters.
Overall, polls show a growing trend of Americans, including moderate Democrats, who are increasingly questioning unconditional US support for Israel. Some 2026 centrist Democratic candidates are now openly rejecting campaign contributions from AIPAC.
Polls also show that a growing number of Republicans have a negative view of Israel, though, unlike Democrats, the party remains largely united in support of the country.
Although Gaza appears to be an important factor in the Democrats' 2024 loss, some analysts are cautious about overlooking other factors, namely the economy, where Harris did not poll strongly across most demographics.
"I think Israel/Gaza played a role in Harris's loss, but I'm not sure it was the deciding factor," J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, remarked to TNA.
"True, there was a red swing in many college towns and places like Dearborn, which wasn't helpful to Democrats. But to me, Trump continuing to gain with white non-college voters, as well as making huge gains with Latinos, speaks to the economy being the dominant issue," he said, noting that according to a CBS exit poll, Trump won voters who cared most about foreign policy by 17 points. Still, those voters only accounted for 4% of the electorate.
Still, as for Gaza, he said, "This is an issue that continues to divide Democrats more than it does Republicans, even as some influential conservatives, like Tucker Carlson, have departed from the GOP orthodoxy on Israel. This issue isn't going away from Democrats, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays in a wide-open 2028 primary field."