Could Trump recognise Palestine during Gulf visit to expand the Abraham Accords?

US President Donald Trump could formally recognise the State of Palestine during his upcoming tour of the Gulf slated for next week, some Gulf sources are claiming.

Diplomatic sources from the region told Middle East-focused outlet Media Line that Trump could make the unexpected move soon, as anticipation builds over his upcoming visit to the Gulf – though this would exclude Hamas, the group who has governed the war-torn Gaza Strip since 2007.

While a US recognition of Palestine would mark a significant shift in US policy in the region and US-Israel ties, however, it could be seen a strategic move to pave the way for the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which saw Israel normalise ties with several Arab countries during Trump’s first tenure as president almost five years ago.

The speculation comes amid reports that Trump is increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's unwillingness to sign up to a Gaza ceasefire.

However, on the social media platform X, US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, a staunch supporter of Israel, dismissed reports of recognition of Palestine as "nonsense".

There has long been speculation that Saudi Arabia was seeking to normalise relations with Israel, but normalisation efforts were cut short by the outbreak of the Gaza War in 2023.

Saudi Arabia has also repeatedly stressed that normalisation would not happen unless Palestine was formally recognised.

A recognition of Palestine by the US could also be interpreted as a way to further marginalise Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

Israel has long said it would not agree to a ceasefire until Hamas relinquishes control over Gaza and disarm. 

Trump has lashed out at the Palestinian group several times amid the war in Gaza on social media, while Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas referred to them as "sons of dogs", demanding they release Israeli captives.

The source said: "If an announcement of American recognition of the State of Palestine is made, it will be the most important declaration that will change the balance of power in the Middle East, and more countries will join the Abraham Accords."

The US President is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE between 13-16 May, in his second overseas trip since returning to office in January this year.

Saudi Arabia will be hosting a US-Gulf Summit in Riyadh, having extended an invitation to other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders.

Trump’s Gulf visit is expected to discuss investment agreements, Israel’s war in Gaza, the controversial Abraham Accords and tariffs.

This also comes as Trump said earlier this week that he will be making a "very, very big announcement" before his anticipated visit to the Gulf. Trump did not specify what the announcement will entail, but said it would be "as big as it gets", adding that it will be "very positive."

He said the announcement will be made between Thursday and Monday before Trump is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, 13 May.

The Gulf source's comments, however, contradict what two sources revealed to Reuters earlier this week, concerning Arab recognition of Israel.

On Thursday, Reuters reported that the US will no longer demand Israeli normalisation from Saudi Arabia as a requirement for progress on nuclear talks.

Establishing diplomatic ties with Israel had been tied to wider nuclear and security talks with Washington, under the Biden administration.  

Additionally, other sources, as quoted by The Jerusalem Post, have suggested that Palestine will not be on the Gulf-US summit's agenda, as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian monarch King Abdullah II will not be present at the event.

Both leaders are heavily involved in mediating between the US, Israel and the Palestinians, and have rejected Trump's previous plan to take over the Gaza Strip and forcibly expel its population to Egypt and Jordan.

A US recognition of Palestine may not be welcomed by the Palestinian Authority, who could be wary of what the decision would actually mean given Washington's near-total support for Israel and its occupation of Palestinian territory.

How likely is a Trump recognition of Palestine, despite his pro-Israel track record?

A US recognition of Palestine is likely to send shockwaves globally and impact relations between Israel and Washington, even if it would be used as a way for more Arab states to normalise ties with Tel Aviv.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has firmly opposed a two-state solution for the Palestinian territories, calling it a "win for terrorism" after French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris could make the move.

Trump was described as the most pro-Israeli US president in years during his first term in office, which lasted from 2017 to 2021. His approach to foreign policy however is seen as rash and erratic, and speculation about recognition of Palestine comes amid his growing anger with Netanyahu.

In 2017, Trump angered Palestinians by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to occupied Jerusalem, before formally labelling it as the capital of Israel. In late 2020, the Trump administration also brokered the Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

During his second presidential tenure, Trump appointed the fanatically pro-Israel Mike Huckabee, who has denied the existence of the Palestinian people, as ambassador to Israel.