Could settler violence, Al-Aqsa incursions spark a new intifada?

Twenty-six years after the Second Intifada, escalating Israeli military raids, settler violence and incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound have raised concerns about another Palestinian uprising.

The anniversary comes amid Israel's ongoing war on Gaza, mounting violence in the occupied West Bank and growing incitement against Palestinians ahead of Israel's general election on 27 October.

On Wednesday, 2,474 Israeli settlers entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound under police protection during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, according to the Jerusalem Governorate. It said 52,277 settlers had entered the compound since the beginning of 2026.

Israeli forces also carried out raids across the occupied West Bank, arresting Palestinians, searching homes and turning residential buildings into military positions. Meanwhile, settlers attacked Palestinian communities, damaged property and targeted agricultural land.

The developments have revived memories of the uprising that erupted in September 2000 following a visit by then Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon to Al-Aqsa, accompanied by a large security presence.

In the first days of October, Israeli police killed 13 Palestinian citizens of Israel while suppressing demonstrations.

For the families of those killed, the anniversary is a reminder of both their loss and the failure to secure justice.

The victims of the Second Intifada

Among those killed was Ahmad Siam, from the village of Muawiya, whose parents were returning from Jordan when they began receiving calls about their son.

"My wife, Ahmad's mother, and I were returning from a visit to Jordan when we were flooded with calls on the way. We felt that something involving us had happened. Then my brother told me that Ahmad had been injured and was lying in hospital," his father, Ibrahim Siam, told The New Arab.

"But when his mother placed her hand on his chest in the intensive care unit, she realised that he had been killed. She addressed him, saying, 'Congratulations on your martyrdom, Ahmad.'"

Ahmad had been deeply affected by the killing of Palestinian child Muhammad al-Durra in Gaza shortly before his own death. He had also participated in demonstrations defending Palestinian land and was among those protesting in support of Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa when he was killed.

His family has preserved his room and belongings for the past 26 years.

An Israeli commission of inquiry, known as the Or Commission, was subsequently established to investigate the October 2000 killings. Although it issued recommendations, no officers were ultimately prosecuted over the deaths.

"We realised that they were not interested in bringing the criminals to justice, so we withdrew from the court. This was even though they knew who the killers were, and we also had indications of their identities," Siam said.

Israel's shift to the right

Palestinian historian Professor Mahmoud Yazbek believes the events of October 2000 marked a turning point in Israel's treatment of Palestinian citizens.

"What many people believed were sudden events reflected the beginning of a new phase in Israeli society's attitudes and Israeli policies towards our community," he told The New Arab.

Yazbek argued that Israeli society has shifted further to the right since then, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu increasingly dependent on figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

He also accused Israeli institutions of attempting to weaken ties between Palestinian citizens of Israel and Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

The struggle over land remains another major source of tension. Yazbek pointed to recent attempts by settlers to establish a presence on land belonging to the Palestinian village of Majd al-Krum in the Galilee.

"It seems that we will witness another chapter of events starting from this period, concerning land, geography and demographics. But we will not leave for anywhere," he said.

Could another uprising erupt?

Lawyer Fouad Sultani, who helped organise legal assistance for Palestinians arrested during the Second Intifada, warned that growing incitement and the arming of settlers and sections of Israeli society could lead to another violent confrontation.

"The scenes from the beginning of the second intifada affected us deeply. The Arab public was ready to protest, and young people were prepared to rise against the injustice inflicted on us as Palestinians," Sultani said. "But perhaps we did not expect protesters to be shot."

Sultani said the events had exposed the vulnerability of Palestinian citizens of Israel despite their formal citizenship.

"We realised that Israeli institutions do not distinguish between a Palestinian inside Israel and a Palestinian in the West Bank, for example, and treat us in the same way," he said.

He also described increasing pressure on Palestinian lawyers and activists, including disciplinary proceedings against him over social media posts.

"More broadly, all of us inside Israel are being targeted. As lawyers, we no longer know the boundaries of the red lines they have drawn for us," he said.

Sultani warned that the ease with which Israeli police opened fire on Palestinian protesters in October 2000 could be repeated, particularly amid continued incitement and the proliferation of weapons.