Following recent violence, could domestic, international shifts bring change to Libya?

Libya's political crisis could be evolving in a hopeful direction, after a recent escalation in the capital Tripoli mobilised domestic and international pressure to break the 4-year deadlock in the oil-rich country divided along east and west lines.

On May 12, Tripoli erupted in violence after the assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli (Ghaniwa), commander of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), by the rival 444 Brigade.

Ghaniwa, a key militia figure aligned with the Tripoli Government of National Unity (GNU), held sway over major state institutions, including the Central Bank, the treasury, the bureaucracy, and the foreign ministry..

Clashes began in his Abu Salim stronghold and quickly spread across Tripoli, turning the capital into a war zone. From just half a kilometre away, the author saw empty streets as residents stayed indoors. The fighting ended after two days, leaving eight dead and around 70 injured.

The GNU survived the clashes, but the worst is yet to come. Four days later, civilian protests erupted, calling on the GNU to step down. This was the biggest anti-government protest since the GNU came to power in March 2021. Feeling the pressure and the threat, several ministers resigned. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s subsequent televised speech, intended to ease tensions, was met with public scorn.

Instead of acknowledging the grievances, assuming responsibility, and apologizing, he used his 30-minute speech on 18 May to dismiss the protestors as “paid demonstrators,” blaming political rivals, including the Tripoli-based High Council of State, the Parliament in Tobruk, and General Haftar, who dominates the eastern region of the country.

Rather than calming tensions, however, his remarks provoked widespread ridicule. Social media platforms lit up with derision, mocking his tone and dismissing his message as evasive and disconnected. Member of the High Council of State, speaking anonymously, said “Dbeibah’s days are numbered now and we’ll make sure he pays for his deeds.”

Escalating protests

On Tuesday, the Libyan parliament started debating the nomination of a new prime minister to replace not only Dbeibah and his entire cabinet but also the parallel Benghazi-based government, with a vote of confidence as early as next week.

But the Parliament has very little influence over GNU and events in the capital. In September 2021, just after six months of voting GNU in it withdrew its confidence in Mr. Debeibah, counting on the support of various militias continued without a hitch.

The latest crisis began on May 16 with protests in Tripoli and several western towns, driven by worsening public services, corruption, and deteriorating security.

In Martyrs Square, demonstrators told The New Arab their core demands were clear: Dbeibah and his government must go and be held accountable, and all existing political bodies—including the decade-old Parliament—must step aside. They also insist on immediate elections, firmly rejecting the idea of another 24-month interim phase. A lawyer, speaking anonymously, said, “In Libya, 24 months sounds like 24 years.”

International stakeholders have reacted with cautious support for a new Libyan government, but Egypt and Turkey stood out with a rare unified position. On May 18, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for Libyans to form a unified government before holding simultaneous legislative and presidential elections.

A day later, President El-Sisi echoed that message — first in a meeting with U.S. envoy Massad Boulos, then at the Arab Economic Summit in Baghdad — urging a Libyan-led political process that leads to national reconciliation and synchronised elections.

Cairo and Ankara’s rare alignment signals support for a unified Libyan government, effectively ruling out Dbeibah’s continuation as prime minister if the country is to end its prolonged transition. The EU’s head of the delegation to Libya echoed this shift, urging leaders on X to “act responsibly” amid reports of civilian deaths during protests. While avoiding direct mention of Dbeibah, the ambassador emphasised the need for an “inclusive political process without delay,” making clear that inclusivity is central to any path forward.

The United Nations’ mission in the country, along with the Presidential Council, formed a “truce” committee to observe the truce in the capital. In a statement, it reminded all parties that “failure to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure” may constitute crimes, and those responsible will be “held accountable for their actions.”

At Parliament’s session in Benghazi, Speaker Aguila Saleh called for Dbeibah to be held accountable for using live fire against civilian protesters in Tripoli. On Sunday, he ordered the Central Bank to freeze funding to state-financed entities until further notice. The move followed unconfirmed reports that an armed militia had tried to steal cash from the Tripoli-based Central Bank.

PM Debeibeh, while not appearing defiant, seemed prepared for further confrontation. Although he came to power in a strictly interim period in 2021, he managed to drag on for over four years despite losing a vote of confidence months after taking over. He is counting on the support of his home city’s militias, without which his departure could be rather quick.

In Tripoli, the strong 444 Brigade, with partial control over the capital, remains on his side too.

The road ahead 

What follows Parliament’s appointment of a new prime minister, when it happens, remains uncertain. One likely scenario is Ankara pressuring Dbeibah to step down with immunity, far from what protesters demand for accountability. Despite earlier plans to vote by Thursday, Tuesday’s parliament session was suspended to allow more time for PM nominees to apply.

Another troubling scenario is that a new prime minister is approved, but securing a vote of confidence for his government stalls for weeks or months. Meanwhile, Dbeibah and his allies may further entrench themselves, deepening the political deadlock.

The public demonstrations have largely dissipated after one last stand, Monday, outside the presidential council, which has remained silent so far, and the capital remains tensely quiet. Schools have mostly reopened, and the port and airport have resumed operations. Still, the two government-owned TV stations remain off air at the time of writing, after they were attacked and looted, depriving Dbeibah of a vital mouthpiece.

Late Tuesday afternoon, organisers told The New Arab that a massive demonstration will be this Friday, 23 May, dubbing it “Decisive Friday.” The National Coalition of Libyan Parties, an umbrella of some 67 political parties, concluded its short protest in Tripoli’s famous Algeria Square with a statement calling for further demonstrations on Friday to support the protestors.

Despite its wealth—or perhaps because of it—Libya has been divided since 2014 between two rival governments, all in the aftermath of the toppling of the decades-long Gaddafi regime. The Benghazi-based authority is backed by parliament but unrecognised internationally, while the UN-backed GNU holds limited control beyond the capital. Foreign interference has long obstructed UN-led reconciliation efforts. Yet this time, external pressure might finally play a decisive role in driving long-overdue change.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) unveiled a report outlining four potential pathways to resolve the country’s prolonged political crisis and pave the way for national elections.

The report by the UN-formed Advisory Committee — comprising 20 Libyan legal experts — follows months of consultations in Tripoli and Benghazi. It offers four scenarios aimed at ending Libya’s transitional phase. These include: holding presidential and parliamentary elections alongside forming a new unified government with a 24-month mandate; electing a legislative council tasked with drafting a new constitution over four years; adopting the 2017 draft constitution via referendum before elections; or forming a “Constituent Council” to replace current institutions and draft a temporary constitution, also within four years.

UNSMIL said implementing any of the proposals requires amending Libya’s legal and constitutional election frameworks, restructuring the High National Elections Commission, and forming a single government with clear authority.

The report, described by Special Representative Hana Serwaa Tetteh as a “starting point for national dialogue,” was submitted to Libya’s key institutions on 11 May. Consultations with stakeholders are ongoing.

Mustafa Fetouri is an award-winning Libyan journalist, columnist, author, and translator, with contributions to major outlets like Middle East Monitor, Al-Monitor, and Washington Report, and a focus on North Africa and the Sahel region

Follow him on X: @MFetouri