Sudan's civil society 'stronger than credited' as opposition mounts to Burhan's dialogue, AU Commission endorsement

Sudan's civil society is "stronger than people give it credit for", analysts told The New Arab, after a Sudanese political coalition condemned the endorsement of a new intra-Sudanese dialogue led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan by the African Union's (AU) Commission.

The Sudanese Declaration of Principles coalition issued a formal complaint to the AU's Peace and Security Council on Wednesday over the commission's endorsement of Burhan's 'Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue.'

The coalition, made up of several political groups including the Somoud alliance and the Sudan Liberation Movement, accused the endorsement of contradicting previous AU statements on a humanitarian truce, effectively endorsing the partition of the country.

They also accused the commission of violating the 2021 suspension of Sudan from the AU that followed Burhan's coup against the civilian post-revolutionary government, and said the move gave political cover to Burhan's regime and neglected their own efforts to promote an alternative dialogue led by civil society.

Kholood Khair, founder and director of Confluence Advisory, a think-and-do-tank founded in Khartoum, told The New Arab: "The opposition believes it's important to register their lack of support for Burhan's process, but also register their discontent with the African Union because there have been concerns that the African Union would be pushing for recognition of Burhan's process as part of their efforts to bring about a national political process in Sudan."

The dialogue was announced by Burhan earlier in May with a stated intention of completing a transition to civilian rule.

The AU Commission said on Monday that it "welcomes" Burhan's initiative and that it "reinforces the African Union's roadmap and the track of the Quintet Mechanism within a coherent strategy led by Sudanese stakeholders."

The Quintet, which includes the AU, UN, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, EU and Arab League, was formed to bring about an end to the war that erupted in 2023 after fighting broke out between the Sudanese army and the rival Rapid Support Forces.

Khair explained that Burhan's initiative initially excluded most of Sudan's anti-military opposition, but later gave amnesty to groups and figures to participate in the dialogue.

"The problem with that is that, if some agreed and came and accepted temporary immunity, it would be like them accepting they had actually done wrong, that they had deserved the indictments in the first place, that they had been guilty of crimes, and that they were now coming to the talk in part so they would not be liable for prosecution."

Khair added that former dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in a revolution that preceded the 2021 coup and civil war, did a similar thing between 2014 and 2017: "we've seen this all before."

Leena Badri, a nonresident fellow for TIMEP, told The New Arab that the condemnation from the group was "no surprise", given the opposition's aversion to the Sudanese Armed Forces and the former National Congress Party that had for decades ruled the country.

"They envision that such efforts [by Burhan] carry a high risk of normalising the return of individuals formally affiliated with the party, in addition to normalising military rule and control over a political process."

African Union Commission endorsement 'win' for Burhan, but civilians needed for government

Badri added that the commission's endorsement was a "win for the SAF [Sudanese armed forces] because it offers legitimacy to their political efforts, and solidifies their position as being a party capable of developing and seeking out processes for dialogue and incorporating civilians into that process".

Sudan's armed forces have, in recent months, won a string of battlefield victories against the RSF, reconnecting a vital road between the semi-besieged city of El-Obeid in North Kordofan and Omdurman, the sister city of the capital Khartoum.

The army has also taken in a wave of defections from the RSF, despite the group's moves to form and solidify its own parallel government.

Despite the battlefield success, however, Khair said that the opposition's statement against the initiative and the AU Commission's endorsement show that "civil society has been stronger than people give it credit for, and that's what has changed since the revolution".

"The war, despite wanting to diminish the power of civilian actors, has not managed to do that," she said, adding, "even if Burhan makes territorial gains, he will not be able to rule without some kind of buy-in from civilian actors and politicians."

Further complicating the situation is the fact that the endorsement of the AU Commission of Burhan's dialogue reveals "a bit of schizophrenia within the AU", where one side of the body has moved against Burhan politically while the other endorses it.

Khair explained that the AU Commissioner, Mahmoud Ali Yousif, is pro-Burhan, but that his position runs against major concerns within the AU about legitimising coups and the formation of parallel governments in Africa, which has been rocked by several coups across the continent, in particular the Sahel, in recent years.

"The biggest danger is actually that the AU can undermine itself and it can undermine the quintet," in their efforts to push for a peace process.

The backlash to Burhan's initiative has also prompted rumours that those involved in the process may pull out on grounds that being involved with the military is becoming a huge liability.

Ultimately, Khair said that the opposition's condemnation of both processes has revealed that "It's very difficult for armed actors now in Sudan to rule by themselves as a result of the popular political movement that has been a key part of civilian Sudanese politics since the revolution".