Can newcomer pro-Palestinian democratic socialist Mamdani beat veteran Cuomo in NY mayoral race?

Can a young pro-Palestinian democratic socialist candidate defeat a veteran politician in the Democratic primary for New York City's mayoral race?

If the polls are accurate and continue until election day on 24 June, then Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Queens assemblyman, might have a fighting chance against ex-New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

A survey conducted in early June and published on Thursday by Public Policy Polling, a firm affiliated with the Democratic Party, found Mamdani beating Cuomo 35 to 31 percent, barely within the 4.1 percent margin of error.

"He's really an appealing candidate with a strong message to the working class," Wa'el Alzayat, CEO of the Muslim voting advocacy group Emgage, told The New Arab.

"He's running a really good ground game. I don't want to underestimate the challenges of running against an establishment candidate," said Alzayat, whose organisation has endorsed Mamdani

An unconventional candidate

Until recently, Cuomo held a double-digit lead over the other Democratic candidates, including Mamdani. However, recent events, including a fiery debate and a slew of witty ads, have helped Mamdani gain ground.

During the debate Thursday night, when the candidates were asked about their positions on Israel, Cuomo said the country would be his first visit abroad as mayor. Mamdani said he would focus on taking care of New Yorkers, including the Jewish community.

"He handled it amazingly well, showing how idiotic it is to ask people running for local or state office about their loyalty to a foreign power and use it as a loyalty test," said Alzayat. "I think Cuomo turned off a lot of voters with his answer."

Indeed, polls in the US are showing decreasing public support for Israel. More importantly for the New York mayoral race, most New Yorkers appear to be prioritising local issues, such as the cost of living and social services.

 Mamdani has been tapping into these concerns with viral ads, including one where he interviews food truck vendors and customers on what he referred to as "halalflation" for the rise in prices and exorbitant fees for vendors.

Among the online followers of the race has been former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, who on social media described Cuomo in Thursday's debate as "scared" of Mamdani and accused the former governor of disrespecting New Yorkers.

A fresh face 

Though Mamdani lacks the experience that his top opponents have, this could work to his advantage.

He is looking to fill the seat with Eric Adams, who was indicted last year on five federal corruption charges, including allegations of wire fraud and taking bribes from the Turkish government. Cuomo resigned as New York governor in disgrace following allegations of covering up the COVID death toll in the state's nursing homes and around 12 accusations of sexual harassment.

"I think that's maybe part of why he's caught up," J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told TNA.

"A lot of his support has been kind of soft. People were choosing him because they knew him," he said.

"If you're voting in an off-year like this, you're probably plugged into what's happening. There could be a sense that Cuomo is yesterday's news. Mamdani has a fresher face," he said.

New York uses rank-choice voting, giving lower-profile candidates the chance to break through. Moreover, if none of the Democratic candidates make a clear breakthrough in the primary, a close-second or third-place candidate could run again in an aligned party or as an independent, conceivably dragging the race out until the general election in November.