Amid political stalemate and ongoing assassinations, Gaza awaits Israeli elections to be over

Gaza does not appear to be heading towards any significant political or administrative change at this present stage.

Instead, amid all its suffering and tragedy, it appears trapped in a prolonged period of waiting, with the Israeli elections on 27 October dominating the scene, as the outcome will shape the next government and its stance toward the war-battered coastal enclave.

While various parties are discussing post-war arrangements, the administration and reconstruction of Gaza, the future of resistance's weapons and the Israeli military occupation, have been practically postponed until after the political battle in Israel settles.

The current stalemate could continue until the end of this year and perhaps beyond into early 2027.

Neverlesstheless, Israeli bombardment, military attacks and targeted assassinations are ongoing and could bring Gaza back to the forefront of events at any moment.

The difference, however, is that military developments do not necessarily appear to be linked to a parallel political process for a fundamental change in the Strip.

Since the beginning of this week, Israel has assassinated several senior commanders of the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, in separate targeting operations in different parts of the Strip.

They include Rafah Brigade commander and head of the brigades' operations system Nail Abu Obeid on Tuesday evening, and, before him, the commander of the brigades' main battalion in Jabalia, Ahmed al-Batsh, along with members of the Islamic Jihad movement.

Israel also conducts daily attacks on several resistance operatives, claiming they are preparing for operations, although the reality on the ground shows otherwise.

As the elections approach, the current Israeli government's ability to make strategic decisions on Gaza becomes more limited, particularly on issues that could be interpreted within Israel as  a retreat from the objectives of the war.

This impression is reinforced by the decline in Gaza's presence in international media coverage, after the issue had been a major focus of political and diplomatic reporting during previous periods.

This comes as US President Donald Trump said in a press statement on 13 September that there was less discussion about the issues in Gaza, saying that people no longer heard much about the Strip.

According to the Israeli political timetable, the elections will be held on 27 October, after which consultations to form a new government will begin. There is no fixed date for the new government to take office, as this depends on how quickly a coalition is formed and wins the confidence of the Knesset. This could push the transfer of power to the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.

Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz said in a statement on Wednesday that the army was ready to "eliminate Hamas" to "complete the mission" in Gaza, followed by the implementation of a "migration plan" in the Strip.

"Rafah and 70 per cent of the Gaza Strip have been emptied of their population, and the tunnels and homes have been destroyed," he said, adding that the army "protects the residents of Israeli communities and eliminates many terrorists every week".

Gaza, delayed

In this context, Palestinian expectations do not appear optimistic about the possibility of a near-term change in the current reality.

Any broad political breakthrough may require a new Israeli government, a more decisive US position and an internal Israeli consensus on what happens the day after in Gaza.

Until then, major administrative and political issues may remain unresolved, while the Strip continues to be dealt with through security and military means.

Israeli affairs researcher Mohammad Halsa said there is a growing conviction among observers and even sections of the Israeli public that Israel's political crisis has become directly linked to its inability to take decisive steps on domestic and foreign issues, foremost among them the Palestinian issue and the Gaza Strip.

Halsa told The New Arab that any potential change in the governing coalition or the composition of Israel's political system does not necessarily mean a breakthrough in the situation in the Strip.

He said disagreements among opposition parties do not centre on the substance of their position on the Palestinian issue but often revolve around adopting tougher positions towards Gaza.

"Netanyahu's opponents, even when they disagree with him on some details, do not depart far from his view of the importance of military force, deterrence and security control," he said.

Some of them may, alongside the use of force, propose arrangements or settlements that serve Israeli security without abandoning the principle of Israeli security control, he added.

Halsa added issues such as humanitarian aid and infrastructure could see some movement if there were a political change, but questions surrounding military withdrawal, implementation of commitments and reconstruction of the Strip would require a long time, given the changes that have taken place in public and official positions in Israel.

Similar calculations

The complexity does not end with the possibility of Netanyahu remaining in office or leaving it.

An assessment of the Israeli scene indicates that the internal dispute is not necessarily over the basic principle of dealing with Gaza but rather over the tools, outcomes and timing.

Israel's opposition can criticise Netanyahu for the failure of the war or the way it has been managed, but it faces difficulty in presenting a radically different vision for the future of the Strip.

In this context, changing the government becomes an important factor, but it is not enough to bring about a shift in Israeli policy towards Gaza.

Power may pass from one coalition to another, while core issues, such as security, military control, the disarmament of the resistance and the future administration of the Strip, remain subject to the same constraints.

Israeli affairs expert Adel Shadid said he sees no indications of a genuine political breakthrough in Israel, even with elections being held.

He said the Israeli scene remains governed by a widespread belief that the war on the Gaza Strip has not achieved its stated objectives.

Shadid told The New Arab that despite the military and political measures Israel has taken, it has failed to end the presence of the resistance or achieve the results it was seeking.

This is pushing Israel's political and security establishment to continue dealing with the Palestinian reality from a security and military perspective rather than opening a serious discussion about political solutions, he said.

He pointed out that the continuation of the war and restrictions imposed on Palestinian life are linked, in the Israeli political mindset, to the fact that Gaza still exists and that the battle has not been settled according to the Israeli vision.

He said this reality would affect the shape of the next government in Israel, whether Netanyahu remains in office or leaves it.

Shadid said that if Netanyahu remains, he would not necessarily be in the same position of strength he previously held but would still be forced to adopt tougher positions to maintain his political position amid pressure from rival parties and political forces.

"The Israeli opposition parties are also seeking to adopt a tougher discourse towards Gaza and the Palestinian issue. They criticise Netanyahu over what they consider a failure to achieve the objectives of the war, but they do not necessarily put forward a different political alternative," he added.

Shadid concluded that the Israeli domestic arena faces two possibilities: the continuation of the current political situation or a change in the composition of the government, without either scenario meaning a near-term breakthrough on the Palestinian issue.

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.