Amid chaos in the region, why has Iran not hit US bases in Turkey?

Despite Iran threatening to target all US bases in neighbouring countries in response to an US-Israeli war and carrying out attacks on Gulf states since last Saturday morning, 28 Feburary, Turkey has not been hit.

Turkey hosts the Incirlik air base, one of the largest and most strategically important US military bases in the region. The base contains strategic weapons and operates with a degree of US autonomy. Turkey also hosts the Kurecik radar base. Both bases lie within range of Iranian missiles that have reached Israel and even Cyprus.

It appears there are several reasons behind Iran's decision not to target bases in Turkey, most notably Ankara's neutral position on the nuclear issue, Turkish efforts to spare the region the consequences of new wars, and Ankara's assessment that Israel is the primary instigator of the conflict.

The Sultanate of Oman, which played a mediating role and hosted negotiations, was subjected to Iranian strikes despite its role being comparable to, and perhaps greater than, that of Turkey.

However, Tehran has so far avoided targeting US bases in Turkey.

Experts attribute this to Turkey's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), meaning any attack on its territory would constitute an attack on alliance members, potentially widening the war and drawing in additional countries.

Turkey's military strength in the region and the balance of power calculations Iran may have considered are also cited as contributing factors.

A live broadcast by the opposition Anka News Agency from the vicinity of Incirlik air base led to the detention of several journalists for violating the law on military sites.

The agency aired live footage from near the base, following expectations that it could be targeted after the Iranian response.

Writer and journalist specialising in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs Bulent Sahin Erdir told The New Arab that Turkey "has followed a consistent policy for years and, as a NATO member, seeks to mediate between the Western bloc and the Iranian regime, thereby avoiding hostile relations with its neighbour and playing a balancing role vis-à-vis the West."

"Turkey maintained this position during the nuclear negotiations as well. During the current war, Turkey adhered to neutrality and did not participate in the aggression directed against Iran, while at the same time it did not refrain from issuing warnings to the Iranian regime," Erdir added.

He also noted that Turkey "did not allow the use of its bases or airspace in attacks against Iran, and Tehran's missile response, within its defensive doctrine, targeted countries that assisted or encouraged the United States to launch attacks against it, and Turkey does not fall within this scope".

"Turkey has gained experience in dealing with migration waves due to Syrian refugees, and if a similar influx occurs from Iran, temporary shelters would be established in eastern Turkey. Turkey's deteriorating economic situation makes it unable to absorb another wave of migrants after the Syrians. Therefore, the Ankara government would take measures to prevent migrants from eastern Anatolia from reaching central Anatolia and Istanbul," he further elaborated. 

Since the beginning of the crisis, Turkey has sought to establish a framework for dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

Talks were reportedly agreed to be held in Istanbul about a month ago before negotiations moved to Oman. Despite this, Turkey continued active diplomacy to support dialogue and prevent war, expressing optimism about possible progress in negotiations.

Writer and journalist specialising in international affairs, Ismail Coktan, told TNA that "Turkey engaged in conflict for more than a decade in Syria against Iran, yet it sought de-escalation following US military movements and threats by US President Donald Trump."

"Turkish diplomacy worked to mediate between the two sides to reach an understanding preventing war and called on parties to sit at the negotiating table in Istanbul, but Iran rejected this and insisted on excluding Turkey from a mediating role despite Ankara's success in several international crises," he added. "Turkey played a decisive role in reaching the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries in 2015, but Iran was always in the opposing camp. Despite all this, Turkey worked extensively to prevent an attack on Iran."

Regarding why Iran did not target US bases in Turkey, Coktan said that "the Americans did not send any military forces to the base during the recent period that witnessed significant military mobilisation in the region against Iran."

"Secondly, unlike other countries in the region hosting US bases, Turkey is a NATO member, and if Iran carried out any attack on its territory, this would be interpreted as an attack on the alliance," he continued. "Thirdly, Turkey possesses a strong army and is also a large country in terms of population and territory. It has not shown hostility towards Iran but instead sought de-escalation."

Turkey is pursuing ceasefire efforts through high-level diplomacy, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conducting diplomatic contacts aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran as quickly as possible.

Ankara fears further expansion of the conflict, after more than a decade of wars in neighbouring countries, has already strained the country.

Article translated from Arabic by Afrah Almatwari. To read the original, click here.