After more than two decades, Iraq closes chapter on UN mission amid divided legacy

After more than two decades, Iraq has officially ended the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission (UNAMI), a move the government hails as a transition from international guardianship to equal partnership, but one that observers warn may open the door to deepening Iranian influence or expanded US control over the country's political trajectory.

The mission's closure, formalised at a ceremony on 13 December in Baghdad attended by UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, marks what officials describe as Iraq's complete restoration of sovereignty.

Yet the country continues to grapple with nearly one million internally displaced people, human rights concerns, and the outsized influence of armed factions that now hold seats in parliament.

Guterres praised Iraq's transformation, declaring it "a different country today, one of security and safety" and congratulating Baghdad on its successful parliamentary elections. Al-Sudani struck a forward-looking tone, insisting that UNAMI's departure "does not mean the end of cooperation with the United Nations, but rather the beginning of a new phase of balanced partnership."

Writer and political analyst Hamza Mustafa argued that the mission played a largely positive role during its 22-year tenure, particularly by monitoring conditions and delivering periodic reports to the Security Council. However, he noted that in later stages, Iraqi political actors grew suspicious of some UN representatives, whom they accused of overstepping their original mandates.

Despite these tensions, Baghdad no longer requires an international body to monitor its internal affairs, Mustafa explained.

"The government seeks instead an equal partnership reflecting the political and institutional recovery Iraq has achieved after two decades of turmoil," he said.

A political decision

Not everyone accepts the official framing. Ihsan al-Shamri, head of the Political Thinking Centre in Baghdad, argued that the mission's repeated emphasis that its departure came "at the Iraqi government's request" amounts to an implicit admission of failure.

"This UN acknowledgement clearly indicates that the mission recognises it did not reach a level where it could close the issues entrusted to it," al-Shamri said. "Despite providing political consultations to the government and parties, many fundamental files saw no real progress."

The decision to end the mission was "political rather than technical," al-Shamri contended, suggesting it was driven by Prime Minister al-Sudani's desire to claim a propaganda victory, creating the impression that Iraq has "liberated itself from international oversight."

"In a country long defined by external intervention, the language of sovereignty resonates deeply," he added.

Al-Shamri also pointed to the prime minister's allies among armed factions as key drivers behind the push. These groups, he said, viewed UN political monitoring as an obstacle to the political equation they seek to impose. With approximately 105 parliamentary seats, Iran-aligned factions now exercise what he described as "absolute control over political, security, and economic decision-making."

Iraq held its sixth parliamentary vote last month, with turnout among registered voters reaching 56 per cent, described by the UN as among the "most free", orderly and credible polls conducted to date.

Political analyst Nizar Haidar offered a different interpretation of "who benefits," arguing that Washington has been steering this outcome for roughly two years, viewing UNAMI's presence as a competitor with its own direct influence.

"The United States worked to reduce the UN's role so it could manage the Iraqi scene exclusively," Haidar said.

The mission served two pivotal functions during its tenure, according to Haidar: mediating between rival Iraqi political forces and serving as the official channel between Baghdad and the international community through the envoy's periodic Security Council briefings. It also provided "the only window connecting the supreme religious authority in Najaf with international institutions."

Yet even this role was not without criticism. Haidar noted that UNAMI at times showed bias toward ruling powers rather than standing with popular demands, particularly during the October 2019 protests and their aftermath.

"The timing of UNAMI's departure also raises uncomfortable questions," he added. "It comes as the United Nations itself faces a crisis of credibility and effectiveness amid wars in Ukraine and Gaza and growing global scepticism toward multilateral institutions."

Uncertainty ahead

The distinction between a political mission and ongoing UN technical or humanitarian engagement is not minor. Political missions provide mediation, monitoring, and international visibility, according to Ghazi Faisal, director of the Iraqi Centre for Strategic Studies.

"Their absence places greater responsibility on domestic actors to manage disputes without an external arbiter," Faisal remarked. 

He cautioned that despite relative security improvements in recent years, Iraq continues to face "complex and interlinked challenges threatening its internal stability," from the displacement crisis to political instability and uncontrolled weapons.

The scale of humanitarian need remains stark. Roughly one million people remain internally displaced, including more than 100,000 predominantly Yazidis from Sinjar who endured genocide at the hands of ISIS and continue living in displacement camps.

Meanwhile, Iraq has been leading efforts to repatriate its nationals from northeast Syria, where tens of thousands with alleged ties to the terrorist group remain detained. Approximately 20,800 people have returned to date, though sustainable reintegration remains a challenge.

Governance challenges also persist. In the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, formation of a new government remains pending after more than a year of protracted negotiations.

Ending UNAMI's mission "does not represent the completion of sovereignty or the overcoming of crises," Faisal warned. Instead, it places greater pressure on the government to independently manage displacement, human rights, and economic issues.

A hasty exit

Iraq was recently elected to the UN Human Rights Council, a position that carries corresponding responsibility to uphold the highest standards in protecting rights, particularly for minorities, women and youth.

Guterres's praise for the mission's "success" was essentially diplomatic courtesy, Faisal suggested, intended to justify the withdrawal and redirect UN efforts toward development agencies.

"The reality remains full of human rights violations and unlawful detentions, alongside the continued presence of armed factions controlling vast areas," Faisal said, adding that factions that now hold political representation and significant parliamentary influence.

Meanwhile, al-Shamri sees that the mission did not intervene even when protesters were being killed, which represented a stark deviation from the democracy goals that it had preached over the years.

"The former UN envoy, Mohamed al-Hassan, appeared in his movements closer to armed forces and factions than to the human rights and democratic files he was supposed to be working on."

Despite these failures, al-Shamri maintained that the Security Council should not have acceded to Iraq's request, given that the country "has not yet been completed from a democratic standpoint or as a state of institutions."

The rapid UN exit, he warned, will create a vacuum to be filled by political forces that do not believe in democracy, whether Iranian allies or Iran itself, "which is striving to prevent any Western or international presence on Iraqi soil."

Haidar predicted that the coming phase would see the United States emerge as "the most prominent party directing the country's political and security trajectory, in the absence of the UN umbrella that served as a relatively balancing element in the Iraqi scene over the past years."

Among Iraqis, reactions remain divided. Some view UNAMI as a necessary safeguard and symbolic layer of international oversight. Others see it as a lingering reminder of external tutelage.

What unites both perspectives is uncertainty about what comes next. Who will monitor future elections? Who will document political crises? Who will carry Iraq's internal struggles into the international record?

Regarding Iraq's stability, Faisal concluded, "[it] will only be achieved when the state can impose its full authority, free from external guardianship and internal armed pressures."

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.