Resisting US and domestic opposition, Iraq's Shia Coordination Framework stands by Nouri al-Maliki's nomination as PM

Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework has confirmed its support for former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, even as domestic objections and US warnings increase.

On Saturday, the Islamic Dawa Party said the Coordination Framework is still backing al-Maliki as its candidate to form the next Iraqi government and denied rumours that he might withdraw.

Al-Maliki's candidacy is meeting more resistance from both Sunni and Shia politicians. US President Trump has warned that American aid could be cut if Maliki returns, and many see these warnings as part of Washington's efforts to reduce Iran's influence in Iraq.

Iraqi political analyst Ahmed Al-Adhadh links the current stand-off to wider changes in the region.

"The Middle East is undergoing major geopolitical and economic transformations, particularly as a result of the tightening of international sanctions on Iran," al-Adhadh told The New Arab. "The axis led by Tehran is experiencing fragmentation and the collapse of its core pillars, especially following the killing of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which had been regarded as the strategic corridor of the so-called Axis of Resistance."

The Framework has rejected US concerns and nominated Maliki, who was Iraq's prime minister from 2006 to 2014, after the 2003 US invasion.

He also pointed out that Iraq has become a key battleground in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran.

"The situation in Iraq is complex and shaped by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The Coordination Framework's push to nominate Nouri al-Maliki is happening while Washington and Tehran are still negotiating, with Iran’s regional influence and support for proxy groups as major points in the talks," Al-Adhadh said.

He noted Iraq is still a key part of Tehran's regional strategy, outlining, "Iraq represents the cornerstone of what remains of Iran's regional influence, serving as a financial lifeline and strategic depth for its national security. Choosing a prime minister outside Iran's orbit would mean Tehran losing its only remaining regional ally."

Al-Maliki is still a controversial figure. Supporters say he restored state authority during crises, but critics blame him for deepening sectarian divisions and for the Iraqi military's collapse in 2014, which allowed ISIS to take over territory.

Some believe that if pressure grows, the Framework might replace al-Maliki with Hamid al-Shatri, Iraq's intelligence chief.

"For Iran, Iraq is the 'strategic centre of gravity' and the most important arena for its regional influence," he said. "Any withdrawal from Iraq could lead to the collapse of Iran’s wider regional project, according to American assessments."

Prominent Sunni leaders have also expressed opposition to al-Maliki. Mohammed al-Halbousi, leader of the Taqaddum Party and former speaker of parliament, reiterated his rejection of the nomination during a televised interview with Dijlah.

"Our experience with al-Maliki has been bitter for all Iraqis," al-Halbousi said. "We want a Shia candidate for the premiership who is open to his partners and to the Arab regional environment, and there are many such figures."

He said Iraq is still dealing with the effects of al-Maliki's tenure and needs stability and new leadership.

Al-Halbousi also warned of possible regional risks if al-Maliki returned and said he would not join any government led by Maliki, though he stopped short of a full boycott.

He stressed that US warnings are clear and that Washington blames Iranian interference for efforts to bring back Maliki.

Hamid al-Shatri is seen as the main alternative, with former prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi as a backup. Al-Shatri is said to have strong support both inside and outside Iraq, though al-Maliki has previously objected to his intelligence background.

Al-Adhad said that most leaders in the Coordination Framework still back al-Maliki, despite some opposition. "Ten members support al-Maliki's candidacy, except Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the National Hikma Movement, and Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl-Al-Haq, both of whom back Hamid al-Shatri for the premiership," he said.

He warned that if al-Maliki returns, the United States could take punitive action, noting, "Trump has hinted at sanctions, including reducing Iraq's petrodollar revenues from oil sales. In addition, US Treasury sanctions remain in force against numerous Iraqi banks accused of smuggling US dollars to Iran."

Al-Maliki has said he would accept any decision by the Coordination Framework to withdraw his nomination.

Iraq's Parliament has adjourned two sessions to elect a new president after failing to reach a quorum. Fewer than 120 lawmakers attended, falling short of the constitutional threshold of 220 and exceeding the 30-day deadline for electing a president after the first parliamentary session.

After being elected, the president has 15 days to name a prime minister.

The prime minister-designate then has one month to form a cabinet and win Parliament's approval. If this fails, the Coordination Framework will nominate another candidate for prime minister.