Sixth times the charm? Does Iraq's 11 November elections matter?

Iraq is holding its sixth parliamentary election since the 2003 US-led invasion, but many people feel frustrated and divided. 

As of Tuesday afternoon, voter turnout was below 30 per cent, reflecting Iraqis' frustration and scepticism about the election's potential to bring change.

Voters will choose all 329 members of parliament. While Iraqis do not pick the prime minister themselves, the winning groups will decide who forms the next government.

Even after twenty years of elections, Iraq still struggles with political instability. The 2021 election, which followed protests in 2019, led to more deadlock and infighting between groups.

The Independent High Electoral Commission set up 8,703 polling centres and 39,285 polling stations. Over 20 million Iraqis are eligible to vote.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani said that holding elections as scheduled shows Iraq's commitment to peaceful transfers of power. He also encouraged people to vote and support a strong political system.

The prime minister went to vote at 7:30 a.m., half an hour after polls opened, bringing his elderly mother with him. They cast their ballots in Baghdad's Karadat Maryam district.

Other Iraqi and Kurdish leaders also voted. Security was tight, especially in Kirkuk and other disputed areas between Baghdad and Erbil. On the night before the election, two emergency police officers in Kirkuk were killed during clashes between supporters of different political parties.  The interior ministry later arrested 14 people.

Many Iraqis, especially young people, are frustrated by corruption, unemployment, and poor public services. They are eager for change.

Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose group won the most seats in 2021 but later left parliament, will not take part in the 2025 election. This gives the Iran-backed Coordination Framework more influence among Shia groups.

The Coordination Framework brings together major Shia groups, including Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's alliance, Nouri al-Maliki's coalition, and Qais al-Khazali's bloc. Even though they are part of the same group, they still compete for leadership and to shape the government.

What are the stakes?

Voter turnout is expected to be between 30 and 40 per cent, much lower than the 80 per cent seen in 2005. Prime Minister al-Sudani is facing a big challenge. Since 2022, he has portrayed himself as working to fight corruption and manage Iraq's ties with the US, Iran, and Gulf countries.

If al-Sudani wins, he may have trouble getting another term or controlling armed groups unless he has Iran's support. Iran could push for a bigger coalition. If the election results are disputed, Iraq could face a long period of political deadlock.

The competition for the prime minister between Al-Sudani and Al-Maliki is fierce. In one recent leaked recording, Al-Sudani allegedly said that Al-Maliki is too old for the job. In another, he said he does not trust Qassim Al-Aeraji, Iraq's National Security Advisor, who has close ties to Iran.

Some observers think the Coordination Framework may try to have Iraq's judiciary, led by Judge Faiq Zedan, block Al-Sudani from a second term on charges of financial corruption, efforts to normalise relations with Israel, and his potential involvement in the audio leak scandal about Al-Maliki. 

What are the outcomes?

Shia parties are likely to retain control of parliament. The main competition is between rival Shia groups, especially the Coordination Framework and its opponents. This contest will influence Iraq's political future and shape its direction.

Sunni groups such as Taqaddum hope to rebuild Mosul and Anbar. They want to bring stability and new opportunities to areas affected by conflict.

KDP and PUK, the main parties in Kurdistan, are working together to protect the region’s autonomy. Still, disagreements over land and oil have put pressure on their relationship with each other and with Baghdad. The Kurdish parties are expected to be severely divided over their candidates for the Iraqi presidency, which the Kurds have held since 2005. 

Baghdad and Erbil still disagree. A new agreement lets Kurdish oil be exported through Iraq's state oil company, but the federal government has not paid the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The KRG says Baghdad is using salaries to exert political pressure.

What is next?

Regional dynamics are changing. Iran views Iraq as key to its strategic goals and is working to rally its allies.

The United States seeks to maintain strong ties with Baghdad through energy partnerships and efforts to curb militias, even as it reduces its military presence.

Turkish troops remain in northern Iraq. Ongoing unrest in Syria and instability in the region are making Iraq's security situation harder to manage. The next government will have to deal with these challenges.

Preliminary results are expected in a few days, but forming a government may take several months. Iraq's constitution requires parliament to elect a speaker, then a president, who names a prime minister from the largest bloc. Significant changes are unlikely, but the vote could bring either more stability or a new deadlock. Iraqis hope for improved services, better job opportunities, and greater accountability. If not, current political elites may keep control.

The 2025 elections are an essential test for Iraq's democracy. They will affect how power, reforms, and political agreements are made. Many Iraqis, especially young people, feel disappointed by past governments, as the competition between Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish groups, along with the influence of Iran, the US, and Turkey, will shape what happens next.

For now, many Iraqis hope this election will finally improve their living conditions.