Following US President Donald Trump's swift invasion and coup of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on 3 January, crowds of exiles around the world celebrated in the streets.
The United States has one of the world's largest Venezuelan communities at over a million, most of whom have migrated in the last decade, fleeing political instability and a deteriorating economy.
Like many diasporas, Venezuelans are working to manage their lives in the US while trying to effect change in their country of origin. In the era of Trump, who strongly carried the Latino—including the Venezuelan—vote in the 2024 presidential election, this often means having to balance a fear of deportation with the hope of a promise for a better life.
"There's a whole generation in Venezuela that has not had the opportunity to live in an era outside Chavismo," Maria Isabel Puerto Riera, a Venezuelan American, a professor based in Orlando, Florida, tells The New Arab, referring to the era of Hugo Chavez, president between 1999 and 2013.
"Many of those young people wish that President Jimenez [a right-wing dictator from 1950 to 1958] were back. They identify with libertarianism. It's the lack of context and experience. Young people don’t know what the democratic experience is. I understand that, but it's concerning," she says.
"Young people have nostalgia for a conservative time. They are desperate. They feel like they're in jail," she says. "We, from the outside, have no idea what they're going through. In their desperation, they’re willing to hold onto anything that offers them a way out."
Long-held hope for change
Trump's ouster of Maduro, though clearly a violation of another country's sovereignty, came after decades of Venezuelans—both in the country and in the diaspora—hoping for a better future.
From 1958 until the 1990s, Venezuela had one of the few stable democracies in the region. By the early 2000s, the country was considered one of the most authoritarian in the world and was becoming one of the most impoverished, despite its oil wealth.
"The fundamental issue is if democracy can be restored in Venezuela," Anita R. Kellog, an assistant professor at the National Defence University in Washington, DC, tells TNA (noting she is not speaking on the university’s behalf).
"Most of them are political refugees, and they've been targeted by the government and military groups. The other side are economic refugees. The economy under Maduro severely deteriorated," she says.
"I think most of them are happy with the ouster of Maduro, but they're sceptical and disappointed that they're not seeing support for a democratic transition," she says.
Dashed hopes?
Since Trump's ouster of Maduro, the administration has not provided a timeline for a democratic transition, despite the popular opposition leader, Maria Machado, being eager to take the reins.
Trump has, however, indicated that he recognises the leadership of Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro's vice president, despite being from the same government—and despite Machado giving Trump her own Nobel Peace Prize, in an apparent bid to nudge him to allow her to lead Venezuela.
"I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect," Trump said in a public statement shortly after the coup.
Less than a month into Venezuela's post-Maduro era, the future for a Democratic transition remains uncertain. So far, the country is not seeing a mass of exiles, as most appear to be waiting for signs of what is to come.
The Trump administration has been intercepting oil shipments linked to Venezuela, with reports indicating that the money is going directly to Trump.
Many Venezuelans are now left with the odd predicament of supporting a US president who brought them a moment of hope with the ouster of an unpopular leader, only to be replaced by a new leader from the same government.
Shifting views?
A recent survey inside Venezuela, conducted by the Caracas firm Meganálisis, shows that the majority of Venezuelans (over 90%) are apparently supportive of Trump's ouster of Maduro. But over 50% of respondents said they believed he was only interested in their oil, and they are generally pessimistic that Trump will restore democracy. There have been indications that oil has been a destabilising factor in Venezuela over the last several decades.
Recent domestic polls of Trump, including those of Latino voters in the US, show a significant drop in support for the US president, particularly on the economy. A new CBS News poll shows that 61% of Latinos said they disapprove of Trump on the economy, and 69% disapprove of his handling of inflation.
Though Latinos in Florida, where most Venezuelans in the US reside, tend to lean more conservative, this could also shift.
Continued crackdowns on immigrants—both documented and undocumented, and often due to their appearance and accent—have put many Venezuelans in the US on edge.
Last year, the Trump administration deported more than 250 Venezuelans to the notorious Centre for the Confinement of Terrorism in El Salvador. Detainees later shared accounts of extreme abuse and mistreatment. Most were not wealthy, an attribute some better-off immigrants have hoped would offer some protections.
Like immigrants in many other parts of the country, many Venezuelans in Florida carry their passports when they leave their homes, generally using more caution when out in public.
"I go out looking like a rock star. I don't wear a sweatshirt; I took off the Venezuela sticker from my car. I'm not taking any chances. I'm a US citizen, but this has gone out of control," says Puerta Riera, who left Venezuela in 2015.
"But I'm here. I feel safe even though things are bad. I have water and electricity. I'm in a much better place than friends and colleagues [in Venezuela]."