After Iran threats and US pondering, is the Strait of Hormuz closed?

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, has come to a near complete standstill, following Iran's declaration of the closure of the passageway, marine tracking data has shown.

In normal times, roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman daily, equivalent to about 20 percent of global liquid petroleum consumption in 2024.

Yet real-time open-source maritime traffic data show transits have plummeted to near zero, a stark contrast to the constant traffic of just days ago before the start of the war between the US, Israel and Iran.

"In early November, we had around 100 transits per day", Dr. Luca Nevola, Senior Analyst for Yemen and the Gulf at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) told The New Arab.

"Then there was a drop in the number of transits during November, and that was caused by the Iranian threats to close down the Strait of Hormuz. And this drop continued until early February 2026".

The flow of commercial shipping through the narrow waterway is directly impacted by regional developments, Dr. Nevola said, as with "renewed negotiations between the US and Iran, the transits went up again".

The shutdown subsequently unfolded rapidly, starting on 28 February, the day US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iranian targets, including naval assets near Bandar Abbas by the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessels in the waters dwindled gradually hour by hour, with into an effective halt by Tuesday amid mounting threats by Iranian authorities against shipping.

On 27 of February, ACLED monitored about 120 transits in one day, which then fell to 90 on the 28th, and finally to 26 on the first of March.

By Wednesday, live maps on open-source platforms paint a picture of near-paralysis.

Dozens of tankers destined for Persian Gulf ports can be seen anchored in enclaves just outside the strait, either in the Gulf of Oman to the southeast or the Persian Gulf approaches to the northwest, with crews holding position for any fleeting safe passage window.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has claimed dominion over the strait.

Guards Navy official Mohammad Akbarzadeh said via Fars news agency that, "Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is under the complete control of the Islamic Republic's Navy."

On Monday, senior IRGC advisor Ebrahim Jabari escalated rhetoric, threatening attacks on regional energy infrastructure and vowing Iran "will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region".

The IRGC explicitly announced the strait's closure, warning via public statements that any vessel attempting passage would be "set ablaze".

Shipping companies halt operations amid security risks

Multiple tankers and vessels have reported near-misses or hits from drones and fast boats.

ACLED has captured at least 11 maritime incidents since the start of the escalation, ranging from ballistic missile attacks to drone strikes.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre confirmed on Tuesday that it was probing an armed interception attempt on a US-flagged tanker 30km north of Oman, squarely within Hormuz waters. According to the statement, the ship evaded an attack by accelerating and steering clear of Iranian territorial seas.​

Dr. Nevola suggests that "there is a strong focus [for Iran to target] oil tankers, as we are capturing a very strong focus on targeting the oil infrastructure and energy infrastructure" of both parties involved.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has refuted Iran’s claims, telling Fox News that the strait "remains open to international navigation", attributing halts to commercial caution rather than an all-out Iranian-imposed blockade.

US President Donald Trump signalled the possibility ofthe US Navy being deployed to the area to escort oil tankers through the passageway.

Dr. Luca Nevola, however, says this option is not a feasable solution.

"And the reason is very simple", the analyst explained. "The US already attempted to escort commercial vessels through the Red Sea again, and that did not improve the overall situation in the Red Sea, because markets are reacting to the perception of threat in the area", which, he agures, "remains very high", irrespective of US involvement.

Major shippers, however, are erring on the side of caution.

Germany's Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth largest shipping company globally, suspended all Hormuz traffic outright, as early as Saturday.

Denmark's Maersk followed, halting crossings "until further notice" and warning of Persian Gulf delays, joining MSC and CMA CGM in widespread pullbacks.

Meanwhile, markets are feeling the consequences.

The Wall Street Journal forecasts oil and LNG disruptions are expected to last over a month.

Brent crude futures jumped 12 percent this week alone, while reports suggest Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has begun to plan reroutes to Yanbu on the Red Sea, although the company has not confirmed the rumours publicly.

EU officials nevertheless downplayed direct supply hits on Wednesday despite fretting over price spikes, opting against immediate measures.

But with Trump's open-ended commitment to the conflict showing no signs of abating, mounting questions swirl over how long shipping firms and global energy markets can sustain this paralysis without triggering a broader economic fallout.

This was particularly heightened when QatarEnergy declared force majeure, raising major concerns for gas and oil supplies.