Could the next Pope be Lebanese? After Francis, eyes turn to the College of Cardinals

The death of Pope Francis at the age of 88 on Monday has ushered the Catholic Church into a solemn but momentous period of transition. As the Vatican enters Sede Vacante (the "Vacant See") cardinals from around the world are gathering in Rome to prepare for a papal conclave that will determine the next spiritual leader of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.

How the transition works

Following a pope's death, the Church enters a set protocol that dates back centuries. Daily operations are overseen by the Camerlengo, currently Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the only top official who remains in office during the transition. One of his key symbolic roles will be the destruction of the Fisherman’s Ring, the papal seal, signifying the official end of Francis’s pontificate.

Francis had requested a simpler funeral than his predecessors. He will be buried not in the traditional triple-coffin arrangement at St Peter’s Basilica, but in a single coffin at Santa Maria Maggiore, reflecting his vision of the papacy as one of humility and service, not regal grandeur.

Meanwhile, the College of Cardinals, 135 electors under the age of 80, will begin a series of general congregations to discuss the direction of the Church and set the date for the conclave, expected to begin within 15 to 20 days.

Inside the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals will cast secret ballots twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon until one man receives a two-thirds majority. After each vote, smoke rises from a stove: black for no decision, white for a new pope. When the white smoke appears, and the bells of St Peter’s ring out, the world will hear the iconic words: "Habemus Papam!" ('We have a pope').

Could that Pope be Lebanese?

In Lebanon, home to one of the oldest Eastern Catholic communities, the Maronite Church, the question is being raised: Could the next pope come from here?

Technically, any baptised Catholic man can be elected pope, but in practice, the choice comes from among the cardinals. Lebanon's Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rai, the Maronite Patriarch of Antioch, was appointed cardinal in 2012 and is a prominent figure in global Catholicism. However, at 84 years old, he is not eligible to vote or likely to be elected.

Still, Lebanon holds spiritual weight in the Vatican. Popes have long referred to it as a symbol of Christian-Muslim coexistence, and a Lebanese pope would carry deep symbolic power in a region plagued by sectarian strife. But without a voting-age cardinal, Lebanon's role in this conclave will likely be one of influence, not candidacy.

Who are the frontrunners?

While a Lebanese pope may be unlikely, the list of papabili (those considered most likely to be elected) reflects the Church’s global diversity.

As the cardinals prepare to enter the Sistine Chapel, attention is turning to a handful of frontrunners whose names are echoing through the corridors of Rome. Here's a look at the list:

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67, Philippines) – A leading liberal and former Archbishop of Manila, Tagle would be the first Asian pope. He is outspoken about the Church’s need for compassion towards LGBTQ+ and divorced Catholics.

• Cardinal Peter Turkson (76, Ghana) – The most prominent African candidate, Turkson was once a bookies' favourite. He would be the first Black pope and has played key Vatican roles, including envoy to South Sudan.

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70, Italy) – Considered a "continuity candidate", Parolin was Secretary of State under Francis. Though respected, his controversial agreement with China may weigh against him.

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (69, Italy) – Francis's peace envoy to Ukraine, Zuppi has diplomatic experience and a Franciscan tone. He’s viewed as a moderate with appeal across ideological lines.

• Cardinal Peter Erdo (72, Hungary) – A deep conservative, Erdo could appeal to traditionalists. He’s outspoken against Communion for divorced Catholics and supports hardline doctrine.

• Cardinal Mario Grech (68, Malta) – As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Grech has helped push Francis’s agenda of synodality and inclusion, especially regarding the Church’s language on LGBTQ+ matters.

• Cardinal José Tolentino Mendonça (59, Portugal) – The "youth candidate" of this conclave, Tolentino blends intellectualism with pastoral sensibility and has held numerous Vatican roles.

• Cardinal Robert Sarah (79, Guinea) – A conservative firebrand from French Guinea. Though admired by traditionalists, his age and outspoken views may work against him.