After El-Fasher's fall, Egypt is desperately trying to end Sudan's civil war

The Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) capture of El-Fasher, North Darfur's capital, ignited an intense Egyptian diplomatic surge to stop Sudan's civil war.

Cairo is deploying a multipronged strategy to persuade the RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to accept a temporary truce, building towards a comprehensive peace formula.

These efforts encompass consultations with the Quad group, which also includes the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as active lobbying of RSF-aligned African states to compel the paramilitary to halt operations and embrace a ceasefire.

The Sudan conflict, raging on since April 2023, dominated this year's Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue, the bilateral consultation framework established in 1998, in Cairo earlier this week.

Egypt has firmly opposed Sudan's partition, a position reinforced by the RSF's seizure of El-Fasher, which could enable complete militia control over Darfur, a resource-rich expanse nearly the size of France.

"The partition of Sudan is a red line Egypt will not allow anyone to cross," Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stated on 4 November.

Since the war's eruption over two years ago, Egypt has maintained significant political and diplomatic involvement without military intervention. It has consistently supported the SAF, in line with its policy of upholding national armies and state institutions in neighbouring countries.

Cairo analysts now view this escalated ceasefire push as a direct response to the conflict's transformation into a national security imperative for Egypt.

Escalating security risks

The RSF's overrun of El-Fasher, situated less than 300 kilometres from Egypt's border, intensifies security vulnerabilities stemming from the Sudanese war, according to Cairo-based analysts.

Potential RSF dominion over all of Darfur would disconnect the remainder of Sudan from Egypt's western southern border, as well as from Libya and Chad.

In June this year, the paramilitary seized a territory that connects Sudan's northwest to both Egypt and Libya.

Should the RSF target the Northern State, merely 117 kilometres from the shared border, the militia's control over this expansive north-western region would further isolate Sudan from Chad.

Cairo fears these developments would establish fresh supply corridors for the RSF from Libya and Chad, thereby extending the war's duration.

The same pathways could facilitate incursions by terrorist organisations operating in the African Sahel into Egypt's Western Desert, a desolate area covering 680,650 square kilometres, comparable in scale to Ukraine.

"Unrelenting fighting inside Sudan is in itself a threat to Egypt's national security," Egyptian political researcher Ahmed Abdel Meguid told The New Arab.

"These developments pave the way for the additional fragmentation of the country, which is quite dangerous for Egypt," he added.

The threats would intensify dramatically if the RSF advances into border-adjacent areas, enabling arms flows and spilling over into instability.

Refugee influx

The RSF's occupation of El-Fasher has aggravated Sudan's dire humanitarian situation, particularly through massacres targeting non-Arab communities.

Videos disseminated by RSF fighters and covered by international media depict the killing of hundreds of civilians, including patients in hospitals.

These atrocities follow a 19-month siege that exacerbated shortages of food, medicine, and essentials in the city.

Residents are fleeing in droves, with RSF elements reportedly extorting ransoms for safe passage out of the city.

As the conflict broadens, many displaced individuals will likely migrate northward to Egypt, already hosting a massive refugee population.

Of the approximately 4 million Sudanese externally displaced by the war, around 1.2 million have arrived in Egypt.

They join millions of other Sudanese who resided here before the conflict, forming a community of over 4 million.

This group compounds pressures from millions of refugees from other nations, straining Egypt's overburdened and under-resourced services shared with its citizens.

Egypt has repeatedly appealed to the international community to alleviate this burden by providing funding and support to address the needs of its expanding refugee population.

Broader geopolitical implications

Sudan's potential division, with the RSF controlling the west, including Darfur, and the SAF holding the east, encompassing Khartoum and Red Sea ports such as Port Sudan, would render the country weaker overall.

This outcome represents a significant geopolitical and geostrategic setback for Egypt, which has long relied on the Sudanese alliance in defending its Nile water rights.

The Nile River constitutes Egypt's primary freshwater source, increasingly jeopardised by Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile.

The dam retains substantial volumes of water that would otherwise flow to Sudan and Egypt, supporting Ethiopia's electricity generation for domestic use and export.

However, it endangers Egypt's water security and agricultural productivity.

For 14 years, Egypt and Sudan have formed a cohesive front against the GERD and Ethiopia's refusal to sign a binding water-sharing agreement.

Experts warn that a weakened Sudan would isolate Egypt in this critical dispute.

"This is why it is important to put pressure on Ethiopia to agree to sign a contractual deal on the operation of the GERD," Rakha Ahmed, a retired diplomat and a member of a local think tank, Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, told TNA.

"Egypt pins a lot of hope on the role the US administration can play in this regard," he added.

Whether the US administration, he noted, is ready to put this pressure on Ethiopia to sign such a deal will be seen in the coming period.

He described the Nile River's water as "an existential issue" for Egypt.

Intensified diplomatic initiatives

Cairo and Washington are reportedly advocating a structured roadmap: an initial three-month humanitarian truce to deliver aid and prevent widespread starvation, transitioning to a permanent ceasefire, and concluding with a nine-month accelerated path to civilian-led governance.

Reports suggest a potential breakthrough truce, supported by Washington and Egypt's behind-the-scenes diplomacy, including pressure on the RSF's African supporters to curb violence before Khartoum emerges as the following primary confrontation site.

Cairo's fervent campaign reflects the profound risks to its borders, resources, and regional influence.

Egypt's strategy balances immediate humanitarian relief with long-term stability, recognising that unchecked escalation could cascade into irreversible fragmentation.

By engaging regional and global actors, Cairo aims to forge a truce that addresses root causes while mitigating spill-over.

Despite optimism, obstacles persist. The RSF's recent triumphs, including El-Fasher, may reduce its willingness to compromise.

Certain SAF-aligned Sudanese factions reject negotiations that treat the RSF as an equal to the national army.

External backers of the RSF could also obstruct progress if they decline to withhold support amid the militia's gains.

These factors risk derailing Egyptian and international endeavours to restore peace in the southern neighbour, analysts said.

"These challenges highlight the need for the international community to step in to prevent the flow of arms to warring parties in this country," Abdel Meguid said.

The coming weeks will, however, test whether battlefield momentum or diplomatic persistence prevails in shaping Sudan's future, and Egypt's security, other analysts said.