Abdul El-Sayed surges in polls ahead of Michigan's Democratic senate primary

Just ahead of the 4 August election day for the Michigan's Democratic senate primary race, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the polls.

The average of the major polls have El-Sayed, a doctor and former government healthcare director who also volunteered during the genocide in Gaza, ahead of his opponent Representative Haley Stevens by around 10 points, with the only poll—Detroit News—putting Stevens ahead.

The major prediction markets all have their odds on El-Sayed—including Kalshi, which gives him 98.2% odds of winning.

“Every poll shows Abdul ahead by more than double digits. The only exception is the Detroit News, which is a telephone poll, which are less reliable and skew more toward older voters. They also have more voters who are less liberal,” James Zogby, veteran pollster and president of the Arab American Institute, told The New Arab on the eve of election day.

This pre-election surge for the progressive candidate follows months of big-donor contributions pouring into Stevens' campaign to the tune of at least $50 million, largely through PACs (political action committees) funded by AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), compared with around $2 million in grassroots funding for El-Sayed.

Stevens has also seen the endorsements of major establishment Democrats, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

For his part, El-Sayed has seen support from progressive leaders Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and the United Auto Workers—an important vote of confidence in Michigan, home of the country's major car makers.

When the candidates first declared their plans to run for office in June 2025, Stevens started strong at around 34% (per a Pollsmax polling average), far ahead of her two main rivals, El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow, who then had 22% and 14%.

El-Sayed continued to trail Stevens until June 2026, when he began steadily gaining ground. In late July, his support surged sharply with a 10-point lead. Just ahead of election day, his strong lead continues.

His general strategy has been to hold as many in-person events as possible across the state, make regular media appearances in both mainstream and alternative outlets, and tap into a base of progressive voters eager for change.

“I definitely think his ground game is better than hers,” Richard Groper, a lecturer in political science at California State University in Los Angeles, tells TNA.

"This has the makings of a victory for him. It means that money Is not everything. It never was. Nowadays, things are reverting back to older times with word of mouth," said Groper.

El-Sayed's strong performance comes during a midterm election season in which progressives aligned with Bernie Sanders are sweeping the Democratic primaries across the country. This is in stark contrast to past elections, when endorsements from top establishment Democrats would often be enough to put a candidate over the top in a tight race.

“If he wins, this will be watershed moment—not just for progressives, or for Arab Americans, but for the entire system,” said Zogby.

After Tuesday's primary, the winner will compete against the presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers. Both El-Sayed and Stevens have pledged that they will support the other against Rogers, with Michigan being a must-win for Democrats to keep that seat blue and take back the Senate in November.

Following Tuesday's divisive primary, Democrats plan to hold a unity rally in Detroit on Friday to support their primary winners.