Iran’s path to the 2026 World Cup thrown into turmoil by escalating US–Israel war and political fallout

Earlier last week, Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said on state television that the country could not take part in a World Cup co-hosted by the United States, following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a US strike. The minister cited security concerns for athletes and the broader national situation.

The statement cast doubt over what had been one of the most celebrated moments in recent Iranian sporting history. Iran’s qualification for the 2026 tournament, scheduled across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, had offered a rare point of collective pride during a period of economic hardship and escalating regional conflict.

US President Donald Trump initially appeared to echo the sentiment. “The Iranian national soccer team is welcome to the World Cup, but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Gianni Infantino, FIFA’s president, shared the message in a Tuesday post on Instagram, noting that during talks with Trump, the US president had emphasised that Iran’s national team would be allowed to take part in the tournament hosted in the United States.

“We all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever, and I sincerely thank the President of the United States for his support, as it shows once again that football unites the world,” Gianni said. 

In response, Iran’s football federation asked FIFA to move Team Melli’s three group-stage matches from US venues to Mexico. Federation president Mehdi Taj said Iran would not travel to America after Trump publicly questioned whether it was appropriate for the team to be there.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country was prepared to host the matches. FIFA rejected the request, stating that all games would be played as per the schedule announced in December 2025.

The Asian Football Confederation added another layer of confusion when its general secretary, Windsor John, said Iran’s federation had told the AFC it still intended to compete.

Iran’s national team posted on Instagram that “no one can exclude” them from the tournament, pointedly noting that the World Cup is run by FIFA, not the American government.

No representatives from Iran attended a FIFA planning summit for participating federations in Atlanta last week. Federation president Taj was also unable to attend the World Cup draw in Washington in December after his US visa application was rejected.

The back-and-forth captures the impossible position Iranian football now occupies. The war has turned a sporting achievement into a political question that FIFA, Tehran, and Washington are all struggling to answer.

For the players who earned qualification, the fans who celebrated it, and the officials who must now decide what to do, the tournament has become entangled in a conflict none of them can control.

Iran had been drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, with all three group-stage matches scheduled at US West Coast venues: two at SoFi Stadium in the Los Angeles area and one at Lumen Field in Seattle. The expanded 48-team tournament is set to run from 11 June to 19 July across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Even before the war, Iran’s participation was politically complicated by the Trump administration’s travel ban on Iranian nationals, although FIFA events have historically allowed special exemptions for official delegations and players.

A qualification that meant more than football

For many Iranians, football is the most popular sport, alongside wrestling, and the national team has long served as a vehicle for collective identity in ways that cut across political divisions.

Reza Ashuri, a Tehran-based football journalist who has covered the sport for more than a decade, said the qualification campaign had been widely celebrated.

It demonstrated that, despite sanctions and limited resources, Iranian football could still compete at the highest level. But he said the political and security environment has fundamentally altered the equation.

“Once the Supreme Leader assassination took place and the aggression, the issue moved far beyond football,” Reza said. “Officials are now looking at the message participation might send both globally and internally.”

Hossein Kazemi, an Iranian football player, said the squad had worked for years toward the opportunity to compete in North America. 

This generation of players achieved qualification earlier than anyone expected, he said, and seeing that opportunity disappear because of circumstances outside the pitch was extremely painful.

“They wanted to represent the country and show their talent,” Hossein said. “That is what football is about.”

Ali Jafari, a student in Tabriz, said the qualification had brought rare excitement among Iranians, regardless of their political views.

“It felt like something positive at a difficult time,” he said. “Now people feel that another opportunity has been lost.”

Athletes caught in the crossfire

The World Cup dispute is not the only episode in which Iranian athletes have been pulled into the political turbulence of recent weeks.

Five members of Iran’s women’s national football team sought asylum in Australia after declining to sing the national anthem during an Asian competition.

Trump publicly urged Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to facilitate asylum for the players, arguing that they would “most likely be killed” if they returned.

Iranian officials have said the athletes will be able to return safely and have rejected Trump’s remarks.

Leila Taheri, a sports sociologist who researches athletics and politics in Iran, said the episode illustrated how athletes become symbols in broader national debates.

“In countries experiencing political tension or international conflict, athletes often carry expectations that go beyond sport,” she said. “Their actions are interpreted politically, whether they intend them that way or not.”

The men’s team has navigated similar pressures for years. Iranian athletes have frequently competed under the shadow of sanctions, sometimes facing visa challenges and restrictions when travelling to international competitions.

FIFA’s balancing act

FIFA has responded cautiously, with Secretary General Mattias Grafstrom saying the organisation is monitoring developments and remains committed to delivering a safe tournament with all teams participating.

No official decision has been made to exclude Iran or activate contingency plans, such as replacing Team Melli with another Asian qualifier.

The controversy has placed Gianni in a difficult position. The organisation has traditionally promoted the idea that football should remain separate from politics, but major international tournaments have rarely operated free of diplomatic tensions.

Some observers have pointed to Gianni’s perceived closeness to Trump, noting a series of public appearances, FIFA-related ceremonies, and occasions where members of Trump’s family participated in football-related functions in recent months.

Critics say these interactions have fuelled debate about whether the organisation’s leadership can maintain sufficient distance from political actors at a time when tensions surrounding the tournament are increasing.

Mehdi Taj, head of Iran’s football federation, pushed back against Trump’s initial remarks.

“One of the basic obligations of any World Cup host is, under FIFA regulations, to ensure the security of the teams participating in the tournament,” he said. “These remarks by Trump create an ugly and inappropriate precedent. I believe he is not well-informed, and the fact that he changed his statements within two days reflects this lack of awareness.”

Iran has participated in several previous World Cups, including the 2022 tournament in Qatar, where the team’s performances drew global attention.

For now, Iran’s place at the 2026 tournament remains uncertain, pending official confirmation from FIFA and the country’s football authorities.

“Football cannot solve wars,” Ali said, “but it can give people moments of unity. Losing that chance is something many people feel deeply.”

Mohammad Khatibi is a political analyst, journalist, and Middle East affairs specialist with extensive experience in Iran’s foreign policy, international relations, and geopolitical strategy

This story is produced in collaboration with Egab