Inside the struggles shaping Egypt’s declining population growth rate and why families are rethinking parenthood

Two years ago, Sarah Ibrahim, 36, had her fallopian tubes tied. She didn’t want to risk any more unwanted pregnancies, as she and her husband, 39, were struggling to provide for their three children: an 11-year-old daughter and two sons, aged nine and seven.

Since giving birth to her last child, Sarah, who married 12 years ago, has had four abortions, blaming the frequent unplanned pregnancies on insufficient guidance from her gynaecologist.

“I feel guilty about these abortions,” Sarah tells The New Arab. In Islam, abortion is only allowed if a council of trustworthy doctors agrees that continuing the pregnancy would put the mother's life at risk.

Sarah, who holds a business degree but is currently not working, says supporting three children is a nightmare. Her husband works long hours, taking an additional low-level job at a shipping company on top of his administrative position at the Ministry of Culture to make ends meet.

“He works 16 hours a day,” Sarah says.

This financial strain has only worsened due to a currency crisis, further exacerbated by the genocide in Gaza. The Central Bank of Egypt abandoned efforts to maintain a fixed exchange rate against the US dollar, opting instead for a flexible regime based on supply and demand.

This led to a sharp increase in inflation, which had already been rising for over a year. The pound’s value dropped by almost half, settling at LE 50.1 to the dollar, while incomes remained the same.

Dreams shattered 

Like many other families in similar circumstances, Sarah was forced to move her daughter from a higher-tier public school to a regular one because the fees had risen from EGP 300 (GBP 4.50) to EGP 3,000 (GBP 45). With her husband’s monthly income of EGP 11,000 (GBP 164) from both jobs, Sarah could no longer afford the higher fees for her three children.

Sarah also spends EGP 2,000 (GBP 30) on private tuition for her children, EGP 1,500 (GBP 22) on utilities (electricity, cooking gas, and water), and another EGP 2,000 (GBP 30) to pay off a bank loan. These are just a few of the many expenses, not including food, transportation, and other essentials.

“I was an only child, and my husband has only one sister,” Sarah says. “We dreamed of having a big family, but the financial stress has turned our life into an endless nightmare.”

Sarah’s situation is not an isolated one. According to data released in April by the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), Egypt recorded its lowest-ever population growth rate in the first quarter of 2025, at 1.34%.

CAPMAS also reported that 2024 saw the lowest birth rate in the country’s history, with just 2.41 births per woman, and fewer than 2 million births that year.

The government attributes this decline to its long-running efforts to raise awareness about family planning. However, many argue that the economic crisis, particularly high inflation, has played a bigger role. According to recent World Bank data, consumer price index inflation increased by 9.5%, rising from 24.1% in 2023 to 33.6% in 2024.

Dr Atef Al-Shitani, former Rapporteur General of the National Population Council, says that Egypt’s declining birth rates represent “a societal decision and reproductive behaviour that the state has been seeking for decades.” He notes that this trend is not new, as CAPMAS data shows a steady decline over the past five years.

While some attribute this drop to the economic crisis, Atef argues that “birth rates always rise among poor families who see children as economic wealth and tools of production.” He points out that birth rates fell initially during the family planning programme in the 1980s, but started rising again from 2005 due to insufficient political support.

'Dangerous demographic imbalances'

Despite the positive indicator of declining birth rates, challenges remain. Egypt still records fewer than 2 million births annually, compared to 600,000 deaths.

Atef stresses the need for “a qualitative study to know the real reasons behind this trend” and calls for addressing the economic crisis, as “the rise in the standard of living means families are more concerned about the quality of life.”

Egypt’s focus on controlling population growth began after the 1952 regime change, which saw a socialist government take power. Population growth was viewed as a barrier to development, and this issue was highlighted in the National Charter, which aimed to combat the rise in population numbers.

In 1956, Presidential Decree No. 4075 established the Supreme Council for Family Planning, officially launching the government’s response to the issue. In 1973, the government introduced its first national family planning plan, which continued throughout the era of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. The plan included widespread media campaigns and made family planning services more accessible in local health units.

Then, in 2015, Egypt launched the National Population Strategy (2015-2030), which focuses on empowering women and improving family planning services.

Economic researcher Mohammed Ramadan believes the decline in birth rates is due to delays in the age of marriage, caused by poverty, rather than a shift in reproductive culture.

He warns that relying on economic conditions to reduce the population could lead to “dangerous demographic imbalances,” similar to those seen in China. Mohammed advocates for “population growth reduction through development,” as seen in Europe.

Delayed marriages and rising costs

Six years ago, Basma Shehata, now 28, got engaged at 22, expecting to be married by 25, just like her two older sisters. However, the high costs involved delayed her plans.

“My older sister was married at 24,” Basma says. “Back in 2012, it cost about EGP 30,000 [GBP 445] to prepare the apartment, buy electrical appliances, and cover other marriage expenses. Today, just the refrigerator costs that much.”

Population studies researcher Akram Al-Alfi dismisses poverty or inflation as causes for the declining birth rates, instead attributing the trend to “women’s awareness and increased rates of education.”

He argues that university-educated women tend to marry later, after 22, and have fewer children in order to provide better education for them. According to Akram, CAPMAS data shows that female enrolment in secondary and university education now exceeds that of males.

“Only high-income countries have low population growth rates,” Akram says. “Because families there care about the quality of life.”

He dismisses theories that the economic crisis is to blame, stating that “the poor and illiterate are the ones who marry and reproduce without planning.”

While there is no precise data on Egypt’s poverty rate, in 2021, the government announced that poverty had decreased from 32.5% in 2017-2018 to 29.7% in 2019-2020. However, the World Bank reported that the poverty rate rose again to 32.5% in 2022.

Economic researcher Elhamy Al-Merghani links the declining birth rates to poverty, reduced government subsidies, and higher healthcare costs.

These factors, he says, have contributed to the increase in the average age of marriage and the rising costs of raising children.

“The cost of raising one child is much greater than it was ten years ago, which makes any family think a thousand times before having one,” Elhamy concludes.

Nadia Mabrouk is a freelance journalist from Egypt

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab