Syrian markets have entered a delicate phase of cautious anxiety and anticipation following the announcement of the new Syrian currency. The launch has raised many questions among traders and citizens alike.
Official bodies describe the move as part of efforts to organise the monetary mass, control liquidity, improve financial performance, and lay the groundwork for long-awaited monetary stability.
However, instead of providing reassurance, this measure has opened the door wide to a wave of concerns among traders and citizens alike, in a country worn down by long years of crises.
Amid a fragile economy, soaring inflation, and falling purchasing power, the new currency is being treated as an extremely sensitive test, affecting not just financial indicators but also daily life, commodity prices, and market activity.
This has cast a shadow of suspicion over any official promises, leaving the general mood suspended between hope for possible reform and a deep fear of a new wave of price hikes and economic chaos.
Syria started the process of circulating the new currency bills in early January as the crisis-hit nation seeks to stabilise the economy, recovering from the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime, toppled last year.
A decree issued by President Ahmed al-Sharaa said that "old Syrian currency" will be gradually withdrawn from circulation, according to a timetable set by the central bank, through designated exchange centres.
Price fears and market uncertainty
In the Al-Hamdaniya market in Aleppo, Mahmoud Al-Jaber, the owner of a grocery shop, stands reviewing price lists.
"The biggest problem is not the currency itself, but the market's reaction," he tells The New Arab.
"Some traders may resort to raising prices preemptively out of fear of losses or changes in the exchange rate, even before the mechanisms for dealing with the new currency become clear."
Many citizens share this concern, as a wide segment fears that the transitional phase will become an opportunity to raise prices without clear justification, in the absence of effective oversight and transparent pricing.
In the initial period of any monetary change, markets often experience confusion, pricing difficulties, hesitation to accept the new or old currency, and cash liquidity problems — scenarios expected by economists and traders alike.
Maram Al-Ahmad, a retired employee, says she is afraid to go to the market during this period: "I don't know what my salary will actually be, nor how prices will be calculated. Everything is unclear, and that in itself is psychologically exhausting," she tells The New Arab.
She adds, "We do not understand monetary policies. What we know is that any change often means new price increases, which is the last thing we, people with limited incomes, need, as we are the most affected. We fear paying the price of any market confusion, whether through rising prices or the erosion of purchasing power."
The anticipation is also reflected in market activity. Some families have preferred to postpone purchases, especially non-essential goods, until the situation stabilises.
Mohammad Al-Jasri, a young man working in the electrical appliance trade, explains that customers ask for more than they actually buy, as "a state of uncertainty makes people cautious about spending their savings."
In one of eastern Aleppo's neighbourhoods, Marwan Al-Haraki, a government employee, sits trying to calculate his family's expenses for the coming month. He says the main problem is not replacing banknotes, but maintaining income stability as everything around it changes.
"The salary is known and limited, but any change in the currency is often accompanied by a rise in prices, even if unofficial," he tells The New Arab, questioning whether there are real measures to protect salaried workers from any new erosion of their purchasing power.
An unclear transition
In a popular vegetable market, small vendors complain about the lack of information.
One of them, Omar Diab, a man in his thirties, says they have received no clarifications on how to price goods during the transitional phase.
He adds that "the small trader is the first to be accused of raising prices, while he himself is buying at an unstable price," considering that any monetary chaos will push losses toward the weakest link in the market.
For those with small savings, anxiety rises: Hussein Aliyo, a day labourer, says that what he has saved over years of work he fears will lose its value if the transitional phase is not managed smoothly.
"We do not have bank accounts or alternatives; any mistake means the loss of years of effort," he tells The New Arab.
On the other hand, there are those who try to cling to hope.
Hala Al-Bakour, a university student, believes that the new currency may be a necessary step if accompanied by transparency and real market control, but she emphasises that the street "does not judge intentions, but results, and that any delay in clarifying details will keep the state of doubt prevailing."
Central bank role and trust at stake
On a broader level, importers fear the impact of the new currency on existing contracts. This concern is especially strong for contracts linked to the dollar or other foreign currencies.
Any disruption in transfers or exchange rates could directly affect the availability of imported goods. This, in turn, may lead to higher prices in the local market.
Trader Mansour Al-Kamel believes that the central bank's decisive role at this stage is to clarify exchange mechanisms, ensure liquidity stability, and intervene rapidly to prevent speculation. The absence of clear messages or delays in them could increase anxiety and exacerbate initial disturbances, Mansour adds.
Economic researcher, Younes Al-Karim, explains that the central bank's step, aimed at limiting market disturbances caused by the coexistence of two currencies, "is, in essence, the most appropriate measure in principle."
However, he adds that the main problem is not the substance of the decision itself. "The issue lies in the fact that it was taken in a more political than monetary manner. This approach led to chaos in the announcement, implementation, and media management of the phase," Younes explains.
He adds that the absence of an official website detailing the decision, combined with the failure to form clear executive committees within the central bank, has worsened the situation.
In addition, "the lack of a clearly articulated and integrated monetary policy led markets to treat some side statements as official decisions. This, in turn, led to conflicting expectations and heightened anxiety," Younes says.
Younes expects markets to see a slowdown in commercial activity due to the difficulty of coexistence between two currencies that are similar in form but different in value, prompting some participants to resort to the dollar as an easier medium of exchange.
This would increase demand for it and raise its price, thereby deepening inflationary pressures. He warns that the sectors most vulnerable to increases will be fuel, energy, electricity, medicines, and raw materials, given their connection to international companies that may exploit market instability to impose their terms, thereby extending the impact of monetary disturbance across the entire economy.
Younes concludes that the success of the currency issuance process depends on fixing the exchange rate, securing liquidity, controlling the prices of basic goods, ensuring that all state institutions commit to dealing in the new currency, and preventing the emergence of two different prices for it.
"The greatest challenge today is restoring trust in the local currency, and this trust is not built by slogans, but by daily transparency, the independence of the central bank, controlling the fiscal deficit, and supporting local production," Younes explains.
"Trust in a currency begins psychologically before it is economic, and it is built only through complete frankness and presenting facts to people without embellishment."
Hadia Al Mansour is a freelance journalist from Syria who has written for Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Monitor, SyriaUntold, and Rising for Freedom Magazine