A 'supercharged' El Niño is coming: How it could hit the Middle East

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up." This is the sharp warning issued by the United Nations’s Secretary-General, António Guterres, following a seasonal forecast published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on September 3.

The WMO, a UN agency, is "the world's most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers" on global weather patterns. Its seasonal updates aggregate findings shared by meteorologists and experts around the globe.

And they all point in one direction: the coming months will unfold under the looming shadow of a "supersized" meteorological event, El Niño, which could spark extreme weather worldwide, including floods and landslides.

According to the WMO, this natural phenomenon, which cyclically affects global weather patterns, could be the strongest in 70 years. 

In the Middle East and North Africa, analysts warn that this supersized El Niño could compound existing humanitarian crises.

Sudan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen are all at "high risk" of facing humanitarian knock-on effects linked to floods and excess rainfall.

Elsewhere in the Levant and the Gulf, other countries will face above-average temperatures and rainfall, which could also lead to floods. 

What is El Niño? 

Once every few years, a climate phenomenon known as “El Niño” develops over the tropical Pacific. It is is caracterised by higher-than-usual sea surface temperatures and a change in dominant winds.

Its effects vary from one occurrence to the next, but generally, El Niño pushes weather patterns around the world to extremes.

In certain regions, it causes and intensifies droughts, while in others, it leads to stronger typhoons and floods.  

While El Niño is generally the bearer of bad news, this year it is more feared than usual.

According to the WMO, this year's El Niño is "fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific". Sea surface temperatures were already 2.2 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in the Pacific Ocean by mid-August, while below-water temperatures reached more than 8 degrees Celsius above average.

This anomaly in temperatures is enough to convince meteorologists, with an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%", that El Niño will last until February 2027 at least.

It should strengthen during the fall of 2026 and peak towards "the end of the year," but its climate impacts will last "well into 2027."

"This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response," warned the WMO Secretary General, Celeste Saulo, in a press release.

"Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organisation have we launched such a major mobilisation." 

What does this mean for the Middle East? 

Given the unusual intensity of this year's episode, experts fear exceptional impacts. According to the WMO’s forecasts, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific could eventually reach 4 degrees Celsius above average, making it the most intense El Niño recorded since the 1950s.

"El Niño should not be considered in isolation," explains Vanessa Cardamone, a climate analysis consultant with the humanitarian think tank ACAPS.

"It interacts with climate change and global warming. This year, we have abnormally high temperatures across land, oceans and seas, and this is something that also contributes to influencing precipitation patterns and extreme precipitation events."

But El Niño’s impact will vary greatly by region, and local effects are difficult to anticipate.

What we know for sure is that temperatures will be above average everywhere, including the Middle East, from September to November 2026.

According to Vanessa Cardamone, these abnormally high temperatures can increase the risk of tropical-like formations forming above the Mediterranean Sea.

Known as "Medicanes", these Mediterranean mini-hurricanes can have a big impact, as the one that recently hit Libya in March 2026 did.

But beyond this, it’s hard to say what impact El Niño will have specifically in the Middle East.

"Evidence about the impact of El Niño in the region is pretty recent and scattered," Cardamone adds.

Recent studies on Morocco show that it typically leads to reduced precipitation, with an associated decrease in wheat production (around 30%). 

On the contrary, the Levant region is expected to receive significantly more water than usual, especially in Syria and Iraq.

This can mean good news for farmers, as more rain can lead to better harvests. But it could also cause natural disasters.

"Based on experience, when we see this pattern, we can anticipate some related hazards, mainly floods," says Cardamone.

In Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, authorities and humanitarian actors should prepare for an at-risk winter.

"In regions that still host internally displaced persons and refugees, I would flag an increased risk of waterborne diseases because floods typically destroy sanitation infrastructure," adds Cardamone. 

What about the Gulf and the Horn of Africa? 

Countries in the Gulf should also receive more rain than usual.

Yemen is particularly exposed to flood risk, as it lies at the intersection of the Gulf and the Horn of Africa, where even more extreme precipitation is expected.

"We know that the rainy season could be particularly destructive this year. We anticipate floods between October and December. Coastal areas of Yemen, particularly the southwest, could also experience flooding," explains Cardamone. 

A recent analysis released in July 2026 by ACAPS lists the main humanitarian impacts that El Niño could have in the region.

Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan are among the countries considered at highest risk worldwide, because in countries that are already dealing with the fallout of armed conflict, ACAPS foresees that "environmental pressures from climate extremes will intersect with conflict, displacement, and socioeconomic crises, creating cascading shocks and increasing the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance."

Finally, the region as a whole could also be affected by the indirect effects of El Niño, such as rising food prices linked to a global decline in food production.

In 2015-2016, an El Niño episode "triggered the worst drought in southern Africa in 35 years, cutting regional maize production by roughly 25% and worsening food insecurity," the WMO notes.

Anticipating this risk, the World Food Programme warns that "this 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027."

As of early August 2026, the World Food Programme did not list any country in the Middle East or the Gulf among the 22 countries "at high risk" of experiencing severe droughts or floods, though Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia are on the list.

But if the global production of food staples dives down, effects will likely be felt everywhere.

Lyse Mauvais is a freelance journalist based in southern France, after four years in the MENA region covering Jordan, Syria and Iraq. She focuses on environmental and climate issues around the Mediterranean

Follow her on Twitter: @lyse_mauvais